Triple Crown Prep races not only continue this weekend in Arkansas, but also in Northern Kentucky where Turfway Park will play host to a qualifier for each gender. 20 points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks will go to the winner of Friday’s $175,000 Cincinnati Trophy Stakes with 20 points on the Derby leaderboard going to the victor of Saturday’s John Battaglia Memorial. Plus, do not forget about the ongoing Xpressbet and 1/ST BET $10 Money-Back Special available for the Battaglia and all other Derby preps through the Lexington in mid-April.
Cincinnati Trophy, Friday, Race 7
#8 Girl Math was made the 3-1-morning line favorite after breaking through for her first career victory on January 2. The $300k OBS April 2024 purchase lost at odds-on in two starts over the Churchill Downs main track, but was able to overcome a four-wide trip into the first turn in her initial try over the all-weather. She attracts Flavien Prat and should get a favorable setup, but the race goes deeper than just this daughter of McKinzie.
Girl Math beat #3 Bracelet in that January 2 race over this surface and distance despite Bracelet having a much more favorable pocket trip. That said, it was Bracelet’s debut. The Brad Cox trainee won going away in her next start and has a higher ceiling entering her first race against winners. #10 Admit has won back-to-back races going a mile over this racetrack. Jockey Irving Moncada has had an outstanding winner in Florence. He will need to find a way to avoid a wide trip into that first turn to make it three in a row.
#6 Somethinabouther merits respect as well. The daughter of Mendelssohn won a Grade 3 over Woodbine’s synthetic surface to conclude her 2YO season. Declan Cannon was onboard in Toronto and will be in town to ride the Brendan Walsh trainee. The lack of experience over this course and the layoff are slight concerns, but she has the right running style if they go at it on the front end. I would demand more than her 5-1-morning line though.
Unfortunately, I lack a creative opinion in this year’s Cincinnati Trophy where Girl Math projects to get a fantastic trip under the best rider on the continent, but is far from a stand out otherwise. I will hope Bracelet or Admit float above their morning line.
John Battaglia Memorial, Saturday, Race 7
The field for the first of two Kentucky Derby points races in Florence this winter is led by Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner #9 First Resort (pictured). The Uncle Mo colt had an outstanding 2YO campaign for trainer Eoin Harty that included a better than looks fourth in the Summer (G1) and a runner-up effort in the Saratoga Special (G2) in addition to his big win in Louisville in late November. It is an interesting return spot for the Godolphin homebred since he has never competed over a synthetic course, but he has trained over it regularly and enters his 3YO debut off of four local drills. The 2-1-price is tough to swallow given the unknowns, but they are running for second if he translates his juvenile form on other surfaces and he moves forward off the freshening.
It is a gambling game though and wagering on First Resort is not a good gamble in the long term despite his strong resume. I will try to beat the chalk with Leonatus Stakes winner #7 Baby Max. The son of Maximus Mischief got a perfect trip in his 2.5-length victory last month and is all but certain to be further off the pace in the Battaglia, but he has proven versatile thus far. Plus, the runner-up in the Leonatus came back to run second to Magnitude in the Risen Star (G2) last weekend. Hopefully, Abel Cedillo angles over and saves ground early and comes with a strong run late to get the money.
Good luck this weekend in Florence!
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