It is a huge Saturday on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with three qualifiers awarding 50 points to the winner. The Gotham (G3) in New York kicks the trio of races off with the Fountain of Youth (G2) and San Felipe (G2) to follow and Xpressbet and 1/ST BET is back with our Triple Crown Prep Race Money-Back Special. Just remember to register if you have not already, so you can take advantage of up to $10 back on your Win bet if your horse finishes second or third.
Gotham (G3), Race 8 Aqueduct
This year’s Gotham is unlikely to provide us with the Kentucky Derby winner, but does include a pair of New York-breds that enter their first try against open company undefeated. #5 Sand Devil is the 9-5-morning line choice. The Violence colt was dominant in his first two starts, but had to work hard to put away National Identity last out at 1 to 5. #4 Sacrosanct is the clear 3-1-second choice. He has not been as fast as Sand Devil, but comes in for 4 for 4 for Brad Cox. He too struggled to put away National Identity when they met in December. Both colts merit respect, but are tough to endorse at their likely off odds, especially with the insurance from the Money Back offer.
I will try to beat them with second-time starter #9 Garamond. The Juddmonte homebred was beaten out of the gate in his debut at Tampa Bay Downs going 6.5-furlongs, but recovered nicely and won relatively easily in the end. Hopefully Javier Castellano can get him out of the gate in better order and stalk the early pacesetters at what would be a very playable ML offering.
Play: #9 Garamond (8-1 ML)
//
Fountain of Youth (G2), Race 13 Gulfstream Park
This year’s Fountain of Youth appears to be a two-horse race between Holy Bull winner #3 Burnham Square and undefeated #6 River Thames. Burnham Square has been awesome since trainer Ian Wilkes added the blinkers two starts back. The son of Liam’s Map has shown versatility and the ability to finish with energy. He is hard to knock, but the same is true of River Thames.
Pedigree folks can definitely assert the son of Maclean’s Music is bred to be a sprinter, but he had no issue getting the added ground last out. He has to prove he can handle the additional turn this afternoon, but appears to be a serious horse. He not only is my choice in here, but I placed a small Kentucky Derby Future Wager on him in Pool 4. Hopefully, he shrinks that 38-1 price quite a bit after Saturday afternoon.
Play: #6 River Thames (2-1 ML)
//
San Felipe (G2), Race 8 Santa Anita Park
Trainer Bob Baffert has won a record 9 San Felipe’s and once again holds a strong hand in 2025 with even-money favorite #3 Barnes and 9-5-second choice #4 Rodriguez.
Rodriguez was really never given a shot in the Robert B Lewis when it was clear he was willing to let stablemate Citizen Bull get an easy lead. He finished a non-threatening second, but I expect a much-improved effort today from the Authentic colt who was awesome on January 4 in his maiden win. I also have a lot of respect for #2 Journalism. The son of Curlin showed an extremely strong turn of foot evidenced by a pair of triple-digit Brisnet late pace ratings in his two-turns races as a 2YO. He has not raced since the Los Alamitos Futurity and in the end might want a bit more ground to be at his best, but one could argue he is the best value option in the race.
Both Rodriguez and Journalism have talent, but they are likely to have run huge to beat Barnes. The $3.2 million Into Mischief colt took a big step forward in his second start after being green in Louisville on debut. He has been handled like one of Bob’s best from the beginning and should relish more ground. I would be pretty surprised if he does not run well in his initial route try.
Play: Barnes (1-1 ML)
.svg){kind=logo}
