Just like that the seven-day Kentucky Downs meeting has come and gone. Wednesday marks the final card of the stand and Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s Money Back Special Promotion. So, just three more cracks to get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if they finish second or third. Here are my plays assuming they are at or above their morning line price.
Race 5:
Unlike many turf sprints, this second-level allowance at 7-furlongs does not have a ton of early speed signed on. Horses like #2 Dude N Colorado and #13 Dominican Pioneer, if he draws in, have two-turn speed but that is unlikely to translate to a hot first half-mile. This should work out well for #3 Double Clutch. The son of Optimizer was a quality two-turn horse to start his career but since returning off a 7.5-month break last October, the 5YO gelding has found some tactical speed. This should allow jockey Jose Ortiz to find a favorable ground saving spot just a few lengths off the early pacesetters. If seven-eighths of a mile hits him like I expect, he should be able to out finish this bunch.
Play: #3 Double Clutch (9-2 ML)
Race 8: Nashville Gold Cup
Speaking of a race that lacks early zip, this 2 1/16-mile event for $500k is likely to see a slow early pace to say the least. Perhaps, this makes 7-5-morning line favorite #1 The Grey Wizard vulnerable in his attempt to make it three wins in a row for trainer Graham Motion. The easy way out is to take the insurance with the Money Back offer and bet the chalk assuming he has to hit the board, but I learned the hard way last Saturday there is nothing easy about making money at Kentucky Downs. Especially, with a horse that has never raced over this surface and is likely to have to close into a slow early tempo.
So, let’s try #5 McLovin who makes his first start of the year for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. The son of Animal Kingdom has a win in two starts over this course, has seemingly been pointed to this race for some time, and gets the best rider around right now in Flavien Prat. The Team Valor International runner should not be too far out of it early and offers fair value at 5-1 or higher.
Play: #5 McLovin (6-1 ML)
Race 9: Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational
The final Money Back Special opportunity of the year at Kentucky Downs comes in this 1 5/16- mile event for a chilly $1.6M. I am glutton for punishment, so I am going back to #11 Mo Fox Givin who hopefully relishes her first run at over 9-furlongs. The daughter of Mo Town may create her own trouble and clearly being an off the pace type puts her in positions to find traffic, but she has not had things her way in quite a few of her races. The Gary Barber owned filly has serious stamina on the bottom side of her pedigree and ran better than it looks on paper last out in her first start for new trainer Mark Casse. If she gets an honest pace to run at, I expect her to come with a strong run at a square price. Hopefully, we can close things out with a bang!
Play: #11 Mo Fox Givin (12-1 ML)
Good luck on Closing Day!
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