Labor Day is approaching and that means so is the 2024 Kentucky Downs meeting. The seven-day meet kicks off on Thursday and so does a new promotion at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. Our marketing team knows how much horseplayers love Money Back Special offers, and with that in mind, they have launched one for every day of the meet. Three select races per card will be eligible for up to a $10 money-back special (if win bet finishes second or third), starting on Thursday with Races 4,7,10 (including the Tapit Stakes).
For those that have never dabbled or gotten involved with Kentucky Downs racing, be ready, it is quite unique. Watching the races can be a task at times, but field sizes are massive, which most handicappers adore. Here are the runners I will be using my Money Back Special offers for on Thursday afternoon, assuming their price is at or above their morning line offering.
Race 4:
The pace should be honest in this 1 5/16 mile event for fillies and mares given the presence of #1 Stylish Sue and #4 Lucky Speech. This bodes well for #3 Sabalenka. The Good Samaritan filly makes her second start off the layoff for trainer Whit Beckman after an even fourth-place run against a stronger group at Saratoga three weeks ago. The 4YO has proven form over this unique configuration and attracts the services of Tyler Gaffalione. Expect a big late run under a rider who is coming hot from upstate New York.
Play: #3 Sabalenka (9-2 ML)
Race 7:
The seventh offers up an extremely unique condition for 2YO fillies and a massive purse taboot. $250k up for grabs for juvenile fillies which have sold or were RNA at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale. Interesting to say the least, but I am here to hopefully help guide you in the right direction, not analyze conditions. That said, it is always very important to read the conditions of a race before diving in. If that is not a habit, I highly advise making it one.
Demanding value in this 6.5-furlong turf sprint is a must. Sure, #5 Lady Orient and #8 Rich City Girl make sense as the two morning line choices for high percentage barns, but this is a different ball game than what they have encountered thus far. I will take a swing with second-time starter #1 Princess Altitude. The extremely well-bred daughter of Frankel is out of a Johar mare that earned over $1M and won 10 of 25 starts over the turf in her career. No doubt this gal is bred to want a ton more ground than she gets today, but she should take a big step forward here as one as Joel Rosario jumps aboard.
Play: #1 Princess Altitude (10-1 ML)
Race 10: Tapit Stakes
The first stakes race of the meeting marks the return of #5 Funtastic Again. The Wesley Ward trainee broke my heart when we saw him lose a tough one to the talented Johannes in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) in late May at Santa Anita Park. The Three Chimneys Farm colt has not raced since and clearly has some sort of soundness issues since he has only competed six times since the start of 2023. However, when he runs he is very good. The problem is he is 9-5 on the morning line and has no form over this course. The son of Funtastic is definitely the likeliest winner, but with the Money Back Special, I can take a swing with a much-better priced runner and get my money back if they finish second or third to the chalk.
#8 Harlan Estate comes in off a strong runner-up effort to Major Dude in an allowance-event at Saratoga in July. The son of Kantharos won this race last year at 37-1 and should be rolling late under Joel Rosario. If Funtastic Again is to lose, it is probably because he gets pressured on the front-end setting things up for a runner from off the pace. The son of Accelerate definitely fits that profile. Hopefully, it’s a big day for trainer Whit Beckman and the newly crowned Hall of Fame rider.
Play: #8 Harlan Estate (10-1 ML)
Keep an eye out for my thoughts on the Saturday and Sunday Money Back races coming later in the week.
Good luck on Opening Day!
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