They are back at it at Kentucky Downs on Saturday afternoon and so is the $10 Money Back Special offer at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. Three select races per day all meet and in this case three stakes - events with full fields for horseplayers to dive into. The $3.1M Nashville Derby (Race 8) kicks off the stakes action at 5:16PM eastern, followed by the $1.5M Ladies Turf Sprint (Race 9), and the $1.5 M Ladies Turf S. (Race 10). It should be a fun day on the border of Tennessee and Kentucky.
Here is how I will attack the Money Back Special Races assuming these runners are at or above their morning line offering:
Race 8: Nashville Derby (G3)
Not to knock the runners in this group because they are talented turf routers but they are certainly running over their head for the lions’ share of the massive $3.1M purse. The 1 5/16-mile event is led by European import #6 Bellum Justum who obviously merits major respect. The Andrew Balding trainee ships over after his second consecutive in the money finish in a G3 event in Great Britain. If he can get to his best efforts from overseas in his first start in the States, he should be tough. #8 Carson’s Run also should be well respected at the windows after his win in the Saratoga Derby (G1). He has rattled off back-to-back victories but does return just 20 days after his career best performance in upstate New York. They can win, as can several others, but I prefer a colt that should be a much bigger price.
#2 Abrumar needs to put forth a career best performance to be there at the wire for Saffie Joseph Jr. but that is definitely within the range of outcomes. The son of Divisidero ran huge last out in the prep for this event at Ellis Park battling early, putting away the other speed, and fighting to the wire to finish second beaten less than a length. He draws favorably along the inside and should be prominently placed by jockey Edgard Zayas. Hopefully they go slow up front giving him his best shot at springing the upset.
Play: #2 Abrumar (15-1 ML)
Race 9: Ladies Turf Sprint (G2)
The pace is likely to be contentious in this 6.5-furlong dash for the ladies, which bodes well for the chances of #11 Danse Macabre. The Army Mule filly makes the second start of her 4YO campaign after just missing to #4 Dontlookbackatall in a 5.5-furlong turf sprint at Saratoga last month. The Kelsey Danner trainee has shown an affinity for this surface already with a win and a second in two tries and should be ready for a career best performance after shaking off the rust in New York.
Play: #11 Danse Macabre (6-1 ML)
Race 10: Ladies Turf Sprint S. (G3)
The final stakes of the day is for fillies and mares at one-mile and I like the chances of #4 Implicated. The daughter of Connect was in the Chad Brown barn through her first seven starts but moved into the Brendan Walsh stable earlier this year and has really turned a corner. Now, both of her wins since the barn switch have been with Lasix, so it is a slight gamble that she will not regress without the anti-bleeding medication, but I am willing to take my chances if she is 5-1 or higher. Implicated comes in off an impressive victory in the Nassau (G2) at Woodbine and appears to be a filly moving in the right direction against a number of runners that we have likely seen the best of already. Tyler Gaffalione will be onboard.
Play: #4 Implicated (6-1)
Good luck on Saturday!
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