The first full week of the Keeneland Fall Meet concludes with a nine-race card led by the Franklin (G2). The $350,000 event for fillies and mares conducted at 5.5-furlongs over the turf makes up the third leg of the late Pick 4, which once again offers horseplayers an opportunity to earn their share of $1M rewards points on Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. Here is how I will try do just that.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Holy Foley; 5 Tea N Conversation
Backups: 9 Queen Regents
Forecast: A second-level allowance at 1 1/2-miles on the lawn kicks things off and it looks like #6 Maria’s Revenge and #8 Marksman Queen should ensure an honest pace. This benefits several, including #7 Holy Foley. The daughter of Point of Entry makes her second start of the form cycle after a half-length defeat at Kentucky Downs on September 1. Hall of Famer John Velazquez sticks around to ride. She is use, as is #5 Tea N Conversation at a much-larger price. The Candy Ride filly makes her second start of the year for Michael McCarthy after being rank early on and posting a disappointing seventh-place run at Del Mar in August.
#9 Queen Regent makes her second start in the States for Brendan Walsh. She won her North American debut at Kentucky Downs in early September and retains Tyler Gaffalione. I am concerned about regression and her affinity for running second of late, but will include as a backup.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Pistol; 4 Upper Case
Backups: 2 Anywho
Forecast: #2 Anywho is listed as the 2-1-morning line favorite in this third-level allowance over the main track. The Bolt d’Oro filly ships east after being soundly defeated by Sweet Azteca in back-to-back graded stakes events in California. She gets some class relief, but could be vulnerable nonetheless. Her lone victory over the last eighteen months was a win over the slop at Churchill Downs. Perhaps she is a bleeder and needs Lasix, but if not, she is far from stand out against this group.
I prefer the two runners that draw to her outside. #3 Pistol was outrun two-back against stakes foes, but I really liked her effort last out at Churchill Downs when she earned career best Beyer and Brisnet speed ratings. She has a win in her only start over this surface and retains Tyler Gaffalione. #4 Upper Case enters this spot off a runner-up effort over the sloppy going on September 13 in Louisville. Prior to that, she rattled off a career best effort in her victory at Ellis Park. She beats this if able to replicate that performance.
Race 8: Franklin (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Star of Mystery (pictured)
Backups: 5 Future Is Now; 6 Dontlookbackatall
Forecast: 3-2-morning line favorite #1 Star of Mystery has been given time after a dominant win in the Quick Call (G3) at Saratoga in mid-July. The Kodiac filly broke well in her second Stateside run, relaxed kindly under Flavien Prat, and handled that group easily. Now though she moves to the rail, which is likely to create a different type of trip. She is all class and 5 for 11 in her career, so I expect her to handle it, but it does raise an additional question. That said, she should beat these with a clean run.
#5 Future Is Now will get the jump on the chalk. The speedy daughter of Great Notion comes in having won 3 of 4, including the $150k Smart N Fancy last out at Saratoga. She is in great form and could be on or right off a moderate early tempo. I will include her, as well as #6 Dontlookbackatall who ran into a buzzsaw last out at Kentucky Downs in AG Bullet, but had won three straight prior to that. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount for the initial time.
Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Night Time
Backups: 11 Solidify; 3 Diamond Heist
Forecast: The pace is likely to be hot in this six-furlong affair for open $40k claimers. #2 Harrodsburg on the inside has plenty of early zip, as do #4 Chattalot and #6 Insolito. An honest first-half mile seems highly likely. This bodes well for #7 Night Time. The 7YO has not been seen since early April when he finished a well-beaten third on a day where speed was good here at Keeneland. He drops in for a tag, attracts Tyler Gaffalione, and should be tough to hold off late.
#11 Solidify is probably not fast enough to win this, but he is a big price and has the right running style. The late running son of Tapizar comes in off a third-place effort against starter foes at Churchill Downs where he was beaten by his stablemate Global Sensation. That runner came back to just miss yesterday. If they go as fast early as I expect, he should be rolling late under jockey Yoel Navas. #3 Diamond Heist makes his Kentucky debut after rattling off a pair of wins at Monmouth Park this summer. He should get first run and is a fair 8-1 on the line.
Best of luck closing the week at Keeneland!
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