The Keeneland Fall Meet is without question one of my favorite meets of the year. Not only does it start out with a bang over the first few days, but there are great opportunities for horseplayers on a regular basis throughout the stand. The stakes races and the full field wide-open two-turn turf races come to mind first, but the 2YO maiden special weights and the high-level allowance and claiming races on dirt are clearly worth our time as well.
To add to the autumn festivities this year in the Lexington area, Xpressbet and 1/ST BET have launched a $1M Rewards Points Late Pick 4 Hit/Split for all 17 days of the meet. Just register for the promotion, piece together the winners, and earn your share of those rewards points in addition to the regular track payout. With that in mind, let’s dive into the Saturday Late Pick 4 that includes three Grade 1 events.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 8: First Lady (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Chili Flag; 10 Ag Bullet; 4 Gina Romantica (pictured)
Backups: 2 Tarawa
Forecast: There is little doubt the pace will be honest in this year’s First Lady given the presence of #10 Ag Bullet. The Twirling Candy filly stretches out to two-turns after being hammered down to 5-2-favoritism last out in the Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs and winning for absolute fun. The Richard Baltas trainee has shown the ability to get a mile before, but not against this level of competition. That said, she is a gal on the improve and worth serious consideration in her first start over the Keeneland lawn.
Trainer Chad Brown has won this race six years in a row and once again holds an extremely strong hand in the 2024 edition of the First Lady. #4 Gina Romantica won this race last year at odds of 11-1. She will not be close to that price despite failing at odds-on last out in the Ballston Spa (G2), but has shown an affinity for this turf course and projects to get a favorable trip on the cutback. Her stablemate #8 Chili Flag rattled off three straight wins earlier this year, including a win in the Just A Game (G1), but had no real shot when stablemate #11 Whitebeam walked on the lead in the Diana (G1). The 5YO mare has been freshened up and should be rolling late under Tyler Gaffalione. #2 Tarawa is the wild-card. She makes her first start in the States for Dermot Weld and could be the one making the last move.
Race 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Handsome Pants; 5 East Avenue
Backups: 1 Ferocious
Forecast: #1 Ferocious is listed as the 8-5-morning line favorite after re-rallying to finish second beaten half a length in the Hopeful (G1) last month. The extremely pricey son of Flatter dominated over the off track on debut and is hard to knock on paper, but visually underwhelmed in his first stakes try last month. The colt was under a ride early on and it appeared he would be off the board at 3 to 5, but ended up passing the majority of the field in the end. He is a tough read, but swallowing the chalk seems less than ideal.
#5 East Avenue was bet down to 6-5-favoritism on debut at Ellis Park for Brendan Walsh and ran to his price. The well-bred Godolphin homebred has to deal with plenty of others that want to be on or near the lead, but his class and ability are apparent. #4 Handsome Pants feels like the value play. The Daredevil colt got a perfect trip under Brian Hernandez Jr. in his debut score at Churchill Downs last month, but I am not sure I want to hold that against him. Not only, did he show serious professionalism winning at two-turns on debut, but he could get a similar trip on Saturday. He is my top choice given his likely off odds.
Race 10: Coolmore Turf Mile (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 More Than Looks
Backups: 9 Carl Spackler
Forecast: Trainer Todd Pletcher looks to win this event for his third consecutive year, but it is Chad Brown with 2-1-morning line favorite, #9 Carl Spackler. The 4YO colt has always been well meant, but put forth the best effort of his career last out in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1). The E Five Racing Thoroughbreds runner should have another favorable voyage with not much speed signed on in this year’s Coolmore Turf Mile. He is the obvious horse to beat, but I expect him to be a very popular single in the sequence.
#3 More Than Looks ran a well-beaten second to Carl Spackler last out at the Spa, but that was his first race off the layoff. He may not get a fast first half-mile to run at once again, but is all but certain to take a big step forward after shaking off the rust in August. If they over bet the chalk, I can see placing a Win wager on More Than Looks. Either way, I will use both with a preference to the late running Cherie DeVaux trainee who is likely to knock plenty of folks out as the second or third choice if he runs them down in the lane.
Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Nyquist Frequency; 5 Eglise; 7 It’s My Life
Backups: None
Forecast: The card concludes with a MSW event for 3YOs+ where #5 Eglise looms large after a pair of near misses for trainer Brian Lynch. The fact the son of Frosted failed to get the job done in both of those starts would normally worry me a bit, but in both efforts, it was way back to third. Furthermore, it is not as if he lost as a short-priced favorite in either try. He is difficult to toss, but I will use a couple of price options as well.
#2 Nyquist Frequency makes his first start as a 3YO for trainer Jordan Blair. He failed to cross the wire first in his three efforts as a 2YO, but ran well against better groups than he encounters here. At a huge price, he is a must use. #7 It’s My Life also intrigues. The Into Mischief colt ran well in a live MSW event at Gulfstream Park this winter, but went to the sidelines after. He came back in late August and ran a solid fourth in his comeback race over the Kentucky Downs lawn. Now he moves back to what is likely to be his preferred surface.
Good luck on this incredible card on Saturday!
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