The third of four October Saturdays at Keeneland features a pair of graded stakes events for 3YOs going one-turn. The Perryville (G3) came up strong and kicks off the late Pick 4 while the Raven Run (G2) will likely have a heavy favorite in Test (G1) runner-up Emery. Both races are included in the ongoing Hit & Split Late Pick 4 promotion at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET and I am hoping to snag my share of the 1 million rewards points up for grabs.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: Perryville (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Book’em Danno (pictured above)
Backups: 9 Dilger; 1 Henro
Forecast: We have another competitive edition of this Grade 3 event for 3YOs sprinting 7-furlongs led by #5 Book’em Danno. The Jersey-bred son of Bucchero has simply had an awesome start to his career. The Derek Ryan trainee has rattled off 6 of 9, including a win back in June in the Woody Stephens (G1) on the Belmont Stakes undercard at the Spa. Ryan has given Book’em Danno time since his career best race and he should get an honest pace to run at making him the deserving 2-1-morning line favorite.
Book’em Danno’s top rivals in this year’s Perryville are a pair of extremely talented runners that are coming off significant layoffs. #3 Knightsbridge is posted as the 3-1-morning line second choice by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The Godolphin homebred won his first two starts by a combined 19 lengths, but we have not seen him since his nine-length score at Gulfstream Park on March 28. His trainer Bill Mott is 0 for 10 at the meet as of Thursday morning and just 4 for 61 over the last ninety days. The Nyquist colt very well could need one to be ready for this caliber of competition. I am willing to fade him as well as #10 Locked who is coming in off an even a longer break. The favorite in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) has not competed since his well-beaten third to stablemate, Fierceness. I had a lot of respect for the Gun Runner colt as a 2YO and am looking forward to seeing him resume racing, but am going to watch one here at his 7-2-offering.
If you are looking to include prices to kick off the sequence, perhaps one of the runners exiting last month’s Harrods Creek at Churchill Downs has a bit of a look. #1 Henro won that race for trainer Chris Hartman. He got a good setup, but could do so again on Saturday. Henro beat #9 Dillger in that 7-furlong affair, but Dilger was three-wide throughout and part of a contentious pace. I like his chances to outrun his 20-1 price.
Race 8:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Paros; 12 Taking Candy; 3 Irish Aces
Backups: 2 Bold Discovery
Forecast: I am leaning on the chalk for the most part in the first leg, but not in this third-level allowance event at 1 1/16-miles over the lawn. #10 Dripping Gold comes in off a six-length score at Kentucky Downs for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey. The Lemon Drop Kid gelding has always been highly regarded evidenced by the fact he has gone off at 4-1 or under in 12 of his 19 starts. The problem is he has just three wins with one of them being on debut at Saratoga in 2021. He feels vulnerable, especially when you add an outside draw in this full field into the mix.
#12 Taking Candy will also take plenty of support for red-hot Cherie DeVaux. DeVaux has four wins at the meet thus far and this $400k OBS March 2022 purchase figures to get a perfect stalking trip just off the pace of longshot #8 Mister Muldoon. He is much more difficult for me to toss. #3 Irish Aces is also worth inclusion. The Pocket Aces Racing runner has a win in his only try over this course and retains the services of Tyler Gaffalione.
#1 Paros intrigues quite a bit despite needing another move forward to beat these. The Cairo Prince gelding has rattled off three straight wins, including his first start off the claim for Mike Maker in early September. What is most noteworthy about that recent victory at Saratoga is not only that he ran down the two speeds with no real setup, but also that it ended an 18-race losing streak for trainer Mike Maker. Maker would then take nine more days to earn his next win. This horse can seal the deal if he gets the right trip.
Race 9: Raven Run (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Emery
Backups: 7 Mink’s Palace; 2 Miuccia
Forecast: The aforementioned #5 Emery makes her first start since a runner-up effort over the muddy going to Ways and Means in the Test (G1) in early August. The Stonestreet Stables filly lost little in defeat losing to the very talented Chad Brown sprinter over and off track, has been given plenty of time, and should handle this group if she gets back to her performance two-back in the Victory Ride (G3).
Most horseplayers that are trying to beat Emery will likely look to #3 My Mane Squeeze. The New York-bred has compiled a very strong resume through 12 starts posting wins in the Eight Belles (G2) and most recently the Dogwood (G3) at Churchill Downs, but very well could be up against it from a race shape perspective with not a ton of early zip signed on. The two that interest me more are #2 Miuccia who only lost by a length in a solid edition of the Prioress (G2) and retains Irad Ortiz Jr. and #7 Mink’s Palace who gets a class test here, but has won 2 of her last 3 and should get a favorable stalking voyage for Eddie Kenneally.
Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10 Birkin Girl
Backups: 3 Running Away; 1 Fixin to Bee; 7 Evelyn Louise
Forecast: Like Emery, #3 Running Away is likely to be a popular single in the sequence after missing by a half-length on debut at Saratoga for trainer Wesley Ward. The Gun Runner filly certainly outran her 10-1 odds that day, but did so in typical New York two-turn turf race fashion loafing along on an uncontested lead. Sure, she lost to a talented filly in Virgin Colada, but an easy lead is far less likely to happen in this spot making her 9-5-morning line price tough to swallow.
I like #10 Birkin Girl most. The Hugh Bishop homebred ran a solid third on debut for a barn that rarely has their runners cranked at first asking. Her follow-up start was not as good, but she was cost all chance shortly after the start as the 7-2-public choice. Now trainer Ben Colebrook legs up Tyler Gaffalione for the first time and stretches this Twirling Candy filly out to two turns. I expect a big run.
#1 Fixin to Bee and #7 Evelyn Louise are a pair of gals who have been just okay through two starts, but are conditioned by patient barns. They both have the right to move forward in career start number three at fair offerings.
Good luck on a fun Saturday afternoon card in the blue grass!
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