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They are back at it Wednesday for the start of their second full week of racing at the Keeneland Spring Meet. The week is headlined by the Doubledogdare (G2) on Friday and the Elkhorn (G2) and Ben Ali (G3) on Saturday, but first things first. An 8-race Wednesday card that is part of our April 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promo at Keeneland. If you did not register for the promotion last week, be sure to do so before playing because if you connect on the Late Pick 4 you split those rewards points between all 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers. Best of luck!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 5:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 8 She’s No Angel; 2 Black Ginger
Backups: None
Forecast: I struggled not only with confidence in this beaten $20k claimer over the main track, but with creativity as well. There is a noticeable lack of early speed signed on, which should bode well for a pair of stalkers that are likely to take a good share of the public’s money. #8 She’s No Angel should benefit from the outside draw and the aggressive Martin Garcia in the saddle. She has run some of the fastest recent races on dirt and makes the most sense. #2 Black Ginger is also sensical. The American Freedom filly gets a massive rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz and has a good second over this course last spring. Neither will have to be too much to get to the wire first against this bunch.
Race 6:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Jubilee Parade; 2 Catch Hound; 10 Fuzzy Stare
Backups:
Forecast: The second leg of the late Pick 4 is another tricky one. This heat is a 5.5-furlong turf sprint for MSW foes. Wesley Ward appears to hold a strong hand here with two, including the 2-1-ML favorite #5 Gypsy Art. The son of Munnings competed in two stakes races to start his career last year before losing as the favorite in a MSW at Aqueduct. I understand why the public will flock to this gelding, but he does not separate much to me from some other logicals. Therefore, I will toss him and use three others. #7 Jubilee Parade is my lukewarm top choice. The Juddmonte colt moves back to the turf after just missing over the synthetic at Gulfstream Park in March. I liked the way he finished two-back in his lone grass sprint. He should be tough to hold off with a contentious early pace. #2 Catch Hound should be a big price and maybe a reach, but Rusty Arnold is more capable of springing first-time starter upsets then a quick glance at his stats suggest. He could help bust this thing open a bit after what looks like a chalky start to the sequence.
Race 7:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Fact
Backups: None
Forecast: Like oddsmaker Nick Tammaro has it tabbed, this first-level allowance event at two-turns is very likely to be bet like a two-horse race between 7-5 ML favorite #2 Rothko and 9-5 second choice #5 Fact. I prefer Fact. Rothko had things all his way last month at Fair Grounds and gave it up late to a 14-1 shot that was coming in off a 6-race losing streak. Fact finished second in his last race as well, but it was much forgivable. Not only was it to a legitimate winner that got the jump on him at one-turn, but it was also his first start since last August. Fact should be tough to beat second off the bench.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 She’s Lookin Lucky; 1 Zadorsky
Backups: 3 Child of the Moon
Forecast: 2-1-ML favorite #3 Child of the Moon is the clear horse to beat on form in this third-level allowance to close the card, but her enemy maybe the race shape. There simply is not a lot of speed on paper to say the least. I expect Luis Saez to get aggressive with #1 Zadorsky from the 1-hole and #8 She’s Lookin Lucky to be prominent as well, but that is unlikely to pave the way to a race that sets up for off-the-pace runners. Flavien Prat might be good enough to overcome this, but I will use the two gals I expect to get the jump on my main ticket in hopes of an upset in the finale.
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