Saturday marks the final racing day of 2025 at beautiful Keeneland Race Course before action shifts to Churchill Downs on Sunday. The last card of the meet includes three stakes races, a competitive All-Turf Pick 3, and a Pick 6 pool that must go. Here are a few horses I will be keying my day around at Keeneland to close the year.
Race 7:
There is not much early speed signed on in this second-level allowance event at 1 1/8-miles over the main track, which certainly benefits 2-1-ML favorite #6 Paris Lily. The City of Light filly has not raced since her third-place finish in late July in the Monmouth Oaks (G3). The Godolphin homebred moves out of the graded stakes ranks for the first time since early spring, could have a pace advantage, and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. There is a lot to like other than the price and the fact that maybe we have already seen the best of the Brendan Walsh trainee.
I am hopeful the best is yet to come for #4 Disco Rules. The Constitution filly has the tactical speed to stay close to the early pace and gets Lasix back after a solid run at Parx in a $200k non-graded stakes event in mid-August. Her dam was a sprinter, but there are plenty of stamina influences on both sides of the pedigree. The price should be right to gamble on this lightly-raced Riley Mott trainee that hopes to prove she fits at this level.
Play: #4 Disco Rules (8-1 ML)
Race 8: Bryan Station (G3)
This one-mile race over the turf for 3YOs drew a deep and competitive field this led by lukewarm 9-2-ML favorite #9 Giacoso. The Secretariat (G2) winner put forth a solid second last out to #11 Plensa in the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs and merits respect, but there are so many in with a chance that is difficult to swallow chalk.
#1 Mesero is worth including if you are spreading at his 20-1-ML price, but I like #10 Simulate most. The Kitten’s Joy colt was impressive three-back at Saratoga when springing a 16-1 upset against a salty group of allowance runners and followed up with a runner-up finish in the aforementioned Secretariat when Giacoso got a much better trip along the inside. I am willing to toss his off the board finish last out going 1 5/16-miles in the Nashville Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs and expect the Bill Mott trainee to get back to his best off the near two-month freshening.
Play: #10 Simulate (8-1 ML)
Race 9: Fayette (G3)
The final stakes race of the year at Keeneland drew a strong group of the second-tier handicap horses with the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) looming out west. It also attracted plenty of runners that want to be on or near the early lead, including #3 Bracket Buster, #4 Dilger, and #8 Prince of Power. This should set things up beautifully for #11 Hit Show. The son of Candy Ride won this race at a much shorter price a year ago and is an honest horse that has brought his race to several different venues over the course of his 21-race career. Brad Cox spots Hit Show in a very sensible spot where there is plenty of early zip signed on to his inside. He should be rolling late assuming Irad Ortiz can angle over early and avoid a wide trip into the first turn. Hopefully, he gets a bit overlooked in the wagering with stablemate #9 Dragoon Guard taking the lions’ share of the Cox money.
Play; #11 Hit Show (6-1 ML) *pictured*
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