Scott Shapiro: Gulfstream Mandatory Payout / $214K Carryover Pick 6 Analysis | Sunday, November 24, 2024

After the Rainbow 6 pool was not solved for the twelfth consecutive day at Gulfstream Park, horseplayers can look forward to a juicy $214,497 carryover on Sunday afternoon. The mandatory payout sequence kicks off with a competitive optional claimer in Race 6 and concludes with a MSW event for 2YOs over the all-weather.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 6:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Dream Concert; 6 Unsolved Mystery
Backups: 8 Olivia Darlling

Forecast: Originally, I was on #7 Imonra in the this 7-furlong affair over the main track, but somewhat surprisingly trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. opted to run her as a longshot in a stake in Kentucky yesterday. Unfortunately, that leaves me without much of an opinion, so I will use a couple that I hope can take advantage of the likely contentious early pace. #1 Dream Concert is drawn down on the outside, which could force Irad Ortiz Jr’s hand out of the gate, but if not she fits well in her third start off the break. #6 Unsolved Mystery is not a dead closer either, but is likely to be outsprinted early. She makes her first start since being outrun in the Princess Rooney (G3) in September. #8 Olivia Darling is the likeliest speed horse to cross the wire first, but her last two races before the layoff were disappointing. Plus, she is not going to have things easy on the front end and is probably going to be a very short price. I will include her only as a backup to kick things off.



Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Alcohol; 10 Mobay Princess
Backups: 5 Cleopatra’s Nile

Forecast: The pace should also be more than honest in this beaten claimer at two-turns over the all-weather. #9 Alcohol is the one I like most in her second try off the claim for trainer Amador Sanchez after missing by less than a length on the lawn last month. She should relish getting back to the synthetic. #10 Mobay Princess is a must use as well. The Solomini filly exits the same race on October 27 as my top choice where she was on the lead early and held on late at nearly 15-1 to finish third. She should be a big price for trainer Monica McGoey. #5 Cleopatra’s Nile has never hit the board in two starts over the all-weather, but appears to be sitting on a career best performance in her third start off the layoff. I will use her as a backup.



Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Whateverwillbewillbe; 7 Fort Charles
Backups: 2 Fenwick

Forecast: #1 Whateverwillbewillbe takes a big drop in class after battling early and tiring late over the slop going one-mile in early October. If he can avoid getting caught up in another battle, he should be tough to beat. If they do go at it early, #7 Fort Charles appears the likeliest to get the best of the speed in the lane. The Khozan gelding was caught wide much of the way going a mile on November 1, but still battled to the wire to finish second. He should get a favorable mid-pack voyage off the speed under Sonny Leon. #2 Fenwick is one of the runners likeliest to make life tough on Whateverwillbewillbe. His path to victory is a little tough to visualize, but he does get some class relief.


Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Yamato; 2 Boppy O
Backups: 7 K.C. Chief

Forecast: I like #5 Yamato most in this allowance event over the all-weather. The 7YO gelding has not competed in the afternoons since a third-place effort in a $100k stake race at Laurel in September that was washed off the sod, but has shown an affinity for this surface in his career. The son of Artie Schiller has won 4 of 10 overall over all-weather surfaces and should be rolling late under jockey Samy Camacho. #2 Boppy O is a must use as well. The son of Bolt d’Oro ran very well in his first start off a 9-month break last month and projects to get a really favorable inside trip under Edwin Gonzalez. #7 K.C. Chief is hard to knock having won 4 of 5 with his lone defeat coming by a head last out in the Presque Isle Downs Mile. If he has his way on the front end, he could be tough, but at 5-2 on the line, he is nothing more than a backup for yours truly. This is certainly a more difficult spot than the ones he encountered this summer at Gulfstream Park after entering the Jose D’Angelo barn.



Race 10:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8 Oh Darlin; 3 My Lady James; 1 Karaya; 5 Queen Olly
Backups: None

Forecast: I lack much of an opinion in this $75k handicap at 5.5 furlongs and struggled to get overly creative. The top two out of the second-level allowance event back in mid-August are my lukewarm top two selections. #3 My Lady James was beaten by #8 Oh Darlin that day. My Lady James has been freshened up since then by high-percentage conditioner Carlos David, while Oh Darlin moves back to the all-weather after being outrun throughout in a five-furlong turf sprint last month. #1 Karaya takes on older runners for the initial time and has not raced since June, but kept quality company when we saw her last. #5 Queen Olly looks to make it 3 in a row after a win going away in her first try over the surface.



Race 11:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Authentic Kingdom
Backups: None

Forecast: I am all in on #6 Authentic Kingdom to close things out. The son of Authentic tried the all-weather last out and put forth a career best effort despite being forced five-wide into the first turn. The John Servis trainee was 16-1 in that November 3 try and only missed by half a length. Now, he moves to a more favorable post and gets a significant rider upgrade to Paco Lopez. He has had five chances, but today feels like the day against a suspect group of non-winners.


Best of luck in what should be a huge Sunday pool!

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