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It has been another wild summer of thoroughbred racing from coast-to-coast with plenty of drama to go along with outstanding wagering and competition. It reaches its pinnacle on Saturday when it is Travers Day in Saratoga Springs. The 14-race slate led by the Midsummer Derby is a strong one with five other graded stakes races on the undercard and another big promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The Travers Day Trifecta-Thon challenges customers to hit four or more $1 trifectas over the course of the afternoon at the Spa. Those who hit at least four will win their share of $7500, while the player(s) that connects on the most will split an additional $2500. Here is how I see things in all 14 races.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: C+
Use: 6 Beau Valor; 5 Exhibit; 3 Up to the Task/7 Club Reign
Forecast: The opener is a MSW event for 2YOs at six-furlongs where I will roll with all first-time starters. #3 Up to the Task was made the 5-2-ML favorite after selling for $525k at the OBS March sale. The son of Nashville clearly looked the part in Florida and makes as much sense as any of the new comers. I prefer #6 Beau Valor though. His sire Beau Liam stands for just $6k, yet this colt commanded $525k at Keeneland last September. He along with #5 Exhibit draw outside the favorite and appear well-meant heading into their first try.
Race 2:
Grade: B-
Use: 8 Emphasis; 4 Oil Capital; 6 Sculcos Folly; 5 Anyway
Forecast: 8-5-ML favorite #6 Sculos Folly returns to Saratoga after tiring late as the 3-5-favorite in the New York Derby at Finger Lakes at a 1 1/16-miles. That was the Richard Dutrow trained colt’s first start around two-turns and it led to a much slower performance than any of his previous few starts. The NY-bred takes on open company foes for the first time since January, but if he gets back to his win in the Mike Lee, they are running for second place. That said, it is a gambling game and there are three solid prices that can spring the upset if Sculos Folly fails to repeat his efforts in the spring. Linda Rice trains two of them. #5 Anyway has won two in a row against state-breds this summer and fits well in here, while #4 Oil Capital is an intriguing long shot. The son of Maclean’s Music has good speed from the gate, but can relax a touch if need be, in the early stages. He was on the wrong part of the track last time when finishing third at 14-1 and makes his third start of the form cycle. #8 Emphasis is the wild card. The Todd Pletcher trainee has not been seen in over thirteen months, but won impressively on debut over this oval as a 2YO. The fact they are bringing him back on Travers Day leads me to believe he is ready to fire a big one.
Race 3:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Fedupwiththefed; 9 Fabian’s Princess
Forecast: I lack trust in the ML favorites in this state-bred first-level allowance at 6.5-furlongs over the main track, so I will take a swing with a pair of prices, including top choice #3 Fedupwiththefed. I take it as a positive that trainer David Donk wheels this Central Banker filly back on just two weeks rest after a runner-up effort out of the Wilson chute. Donk legs up jockey Johnny Velazquez on the cutback to one-turn. The price should be right to gamble on her being set for her best third off the freshening.
Race 4:
Grade: C
Use: 8 Alto Blues; 6 Feline Curious
Forecast: I also lack trust in the logicals in this first-level allowance at two-turns on the grass, but do not have much confidence in any horses entered. I will go with a pair of prices on top with first-time States competitor #8 Alto Blues and #6 Feline Curious as my top choices. Alto Blues could get forgotten by the public since Miguel Clement’s other runner is the 2-1-ML choice. He comes in off a steady series of drills at Belmont Park. #6 Feline Curious had things his way on the front end in his maiden victory earlier this month, but perhaps is a son of Kitten’s Joy on the rise. Tyler Gaffalione is likely to stalk off the early speed for #2 Iron Palace in this colt’s first try versus winners.
Race 5:
Grade: B-
Use: 8 Sammy C Note/9 Sir Oscar
Forecast: I like the chances of #8 Sammy C Note most in this state-bred first-level allowance over the Inner Turf. The son of Good Samaritan nearly earned a win in his first start versus winners at two-turns on July 25, but ran out of real estate. Trainer Michael Miceli brings him back in a similar spot, but half a furlong longer where he should sit a favorable stalking trip with Jose Ortiz taking the call for the first time. He has been a different horse since moving into Miceli’s barn and should continue to prove that in the final leg of the early Pick 5.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Use: 2 Virabhadrasana; 6 Sayatara; 3 Foxiest; 5 Letter of Credit
Forecast: #3 Foxiest certainly has the sexiest pedigree in this MSW event for 2YO fillies over the main track. The daughter of Gun Runner is out of champion mare Covfefe, so she is clearly bred to be a serious filly. The LNJ Foxwoods homebred has been training regularly at Churchill Downs in preparation for her debut and makes a lot of sense, but taking on short prices on big pedigree first-time starters is far from a long-term winning formula. #2 Virabhadrasna has the experience edge over the majority of her rivals. The daughter of Jackie’s Warrior was off slow and raced against the flow on debut, but was the one from the back showing by far the most interest late. A move forward should be expected. In addition to Foxiest, a pair of other first-time starters offer solid win early pedigrees for top barns. #5 Letter of Credit debuts for Chad Brown and is out of a mare that won her first two starts, while #6 Saytara makes her first start for Todd Pletcher and is out of a mare that not only won by more than seven lengths on debut, but came right back to win the Forward Gal (G3). Both should offer solid value given the money expected to go to Foxiest.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Use: 6 River Ride; 5 Shelzawa
Forecast: I will take a swing on top in this first-level allowance for 3YO fillies over the grass with #6 River Ride. The daughter of Not This Time makes her second start versus winners after being caught wide throughout against similar on July 25. She had things her way at Aqueduct two-back to break her maiden on the front end, but showed talent in her others starts over the grass. She can find her way into the mix at the very least with a better trip under Jose Lezcano.
Race 8: H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Local Knowledge
Forecast: The stakes action starts with this seven-furlong dash for 3YOs over the main track where #4 Englishman is likely to be a huge favorite. The son of Maxfield lost for the first time in the Pat Day Mile (G2), but bounced back with a massive effort in the Woody Stephens (G1). No 3YO in the world will beat the Cherie DeVaux trainee if he repeats his last, but some level of regression has to be expected. Given the likely differential in odds, I will try to beat the chalk with #5 Local Knowledge. Clearly the son of Yaupon has not been as dynamic as Englishman, but at the same point has done very little wrong thus far. He beat a strong maiden field on debut at Keeneland, but was scratched out of his next start scheduled in Florida and did not return until June where he was actually better than I anticipated despite failing the public. He bounced back in a big way besting a field of seven in the Amsterdam (G2) and should be a fair price given the presence of Englishman and 3-1-second choice #2 Deep Flame. Hopefully, he is set for a career defining run.
Race 9: Personal Ensign (G1)
Grade: X
Use: 2 Fully Subscribed
Forecast: This year’s Personal Ensign appears to be a rematch between the top two finishers in last month’s Shuvee (G2) where it was #2 Fully Subscribed nailing #4 Scottish Lassie right on the wire. I have a tough time backing Scottish Lassie after giving up a three-length lead in the lane last out. Perhaps, she will be a bit tighter with the race off the freshening out of the way, but it sure is difficult to go back to the Jorge Abreu filly with confidence. This leads me to Fully Subscribed. The daughter of Tiz the Law is not a world beater, but has only finished out of the exacta once in eight starts. She should earn her first Grade 1 score in this nine-furlong event over the Saratoga dirt.
Race 10: Lake Placid (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 5 Naomis; 4 Deep Learning
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown has won this one-mile event for 3YO fillies over the Inner Turf a record six times and holds a strong 1-2-punch again in 2026 with #4 Deep Learning and #5 Naomis. Both are in with serious chances, but I will side with European invader Naomis. The French-bred makes her first start in the States off the freshening with her most recent run being a Grade 2 score at Chantilly in late May. She attracts Flavien Prat despite him being aboard Deep Learning in all, but one of her lifetime starts. Both of them have a significant chance to best 2-1-ML favorite Queen of Hawaii. The Lindy Farms filly got a great ride and split in her first start off the bench on July 9, but has to prove herself against a tougher group.
Race 11: Forego (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 6 Senior Officer; 5 Book’em Danno
Forecast: Jersey-bred Book’em Danno won this race a year ago before going to the sidelines until June and has won 5 of 6 over this surface, but is going to take a ton of public support. The question is not whether the 5YO gelding is capable of winning his third in a row, but what price is too short on him considering he has regressed from a number’s perspective in 2026. I will not go crazy trying to beat the favorite, but do think #6 Senior Officer is in with a solid chance to get to the wire first. The Maryland-bred takes on stakes foes for the first time for Brad Cox after overcoming traffic issues to run down #1 Tip Top Thomas in a high-level allowance event last month. The lightly-raced gelding has also shown an affinity for the surface and draws outside his main rival.
Race 12: Ballerina (G1)
Grade: B
Use: 2 Kilwin; 7 Ways and Means; 11 Beauty Reigns; 12 Eclatant
Forecast: Outside of the main event, this seven-furlong dash for fillies and mares is clearly the best of the stakes races on the Travers card. 9-5-ML favorite #7 Ways and Means is the clear horse to beat off of her win in the Bed O’ Roses (G2) in early June. She has been dominant over this surface, but is likely to be tested big-time against this full field. I will hope the pace is hot early setting things up for the late run of #2 Kilwin. The Twirling Candy filly came back off a lengthy layoff at Ellis Park last month in a non-graded stake and proved once again she can finish with serious energy on the dirt. She earned a neck win last summer in the Test (G1) and gets the hottest rider in the country in the saddle. She and #11 Beauty Reigns should be rolling late at solid prices if the race plays out like I expect early on.
Race 13: Travers (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Sea Strike; 9 Golden Tempo; 4 The Puma; 2 Leading Change
Forecast: The featured event for the meet came up about as strong as one could hope with the top three from the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness winner, and a few new shooters with talent all lined up to go ten-furlongs over the main track. I talked in detail on both Horse Cents with Bailey Armour and the 1/ST Call Podcast with Jeremy Plonk this week on the big race so check those out for a more in-depth chat, but I will once again try to beat the late running #5 Renegade and #9 Golden Tempo. Of the two, I trust Golden Tempo to run his race more, but at some point, his ability to just stay the distance is likely to run into a horse that has speed, as well as the stamina to get the classic distance. #5 Sea Strike could be that colt despite being bred to sprint. The Chad Brown trainee stalked the early pace and finished strong against lesser in the Curlin and should get a great trip on the class test under Flavien Prat. He is my top choice, but #2 Leading Change and #4 The Puma also could be primed for a big run at solid prices.
Race 14:
Grade: X
Use: 4 That’s How We Love
Forecast: I have no interest in trying to best 6-5-ML favorite #4 That’s How We Love in the finale. The Justify filly put on a show in her debut at Monmouth Park last month and meets just an okay bunch in the Travers Day finale. She might get over bet off the big win, but I will opt to chalk it out to close the big card.
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