Saturday is one of the biggest days of the meet at Saratoga with four graded stakes races on the agenda headlined by the $1M Whitney (G1), but do not snooze on Friday afternoon’s 10-race card that includes a pair of graded stakes events for 3YOs on the lawn. Here are my thoughts on the Saratoga Oaks (G2) and the Hall of Fame (G2).
Race 8: Saratoga Oaks (G2)
Charles Appleby and William Buick won this event in 2022 when With The Moonlight stalked early and pulled away late as the even-money favorite. They hold a strong hand again in 2024 with 6-5-favorite #1 Cinderella’s Dream. The British-bred filly made quite an impression in her first start in the States overcoming an unfavorable race shape when running down pacesetter Segesta (who Chad Brown announced earlier in the week will be scratched due to a bruised foot) and heavy favorite #7 She Feels Pretty in the Belmont Oaks (G1). The only blemish on her resume is a fifth-place finish in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket in May. She stands out against this group.
For those searching for an alternative to the likely odds-on favorite, it is hard to make a case for any of the fillies based in the States and nearly as difficult to make one for European import, #5 Greenfinch. Trainer Aidan O’Brien ships this Justify filly in from Ireland after finally earning her first career victory over the lawn. Her inability to handle Grade 3 competition in Ireland is concerning, as is the fact that O’Brien has not sent a filly over for this race the last several years after finishing second in the inaugural edition with Happen. It simply does not seem like a priority for one of the world’s top conditioners. Greenfinch earned that first grass victory in frontrunning fashion last month and could keep #4 Macanga honest in the early going, but I do not expect her to get the best of Cinderella’s Dream regardless of trip.
Pick: Cinderella’s Dream
Play: Daily Double 1-3
Race 9: Hall of Fame (G2)
The pace is likely to be honest in this year’s Hall of Fame (G2) given the presence of #8 Barksdale. The Street Sense gelding ships back to New York after battling early and tiring late in a stakes event washed off the grass at Ellis Park on the Fourth of July. The William Walden trainee has been better in his one-turn events thus far and looks up against it on paper, but his lone two-turn starts did come early on his career before he seemingly turned a corner. Expect the top three horses on the morning line #3 Zverev, #4 Neat, and #8 Army Officer to be amongst those in the second tier hoping to get first run. Like most two-turn events on the lawn, trip is likely to decide the race.
Neat might be the likeliest winner coming off a workmanlike victory in the Manila (G3) but I am not sure he stands out enough to invest in as the chalk. Army Officer is also a potential underlay as he hopes to earn back-to-back victories over this turf course after getting the job done as the 5-2-favorite during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival in June. He should get the right trip under Frankie Dettori but has never struck me as one of Brad Cox’s best.
Zverev intrigues the most. The Cherie DeVaux makes his third start of the form cycle after getting the best of West Hollywood in the lane back in Louisville on June 20. The effort was a huge step forward for the Oscar Performance colt and it looks even better after West Hollywood’s off the pace victory last Saturday. I have little reason to believe he will not run another big race for a barn that is 4 for 14 to start the meet with nine of those runners hitting the board.
Zverev is my top choice and a potential Win bet at 7-2 or higher. I will tie him up with #2 Buttercream Babe. The Three Diamonds Farm filly was beaten by a 36-1 long shot in his last at Horseshoe Indianapolis but that winner was loose on the lead while this Mike Maker trainee was never overly comfortable. The son of Twirling Candy appears to be moving in the right direction and the fact he has a win over this course earlier this year and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr adds to the appeal.
Pick: Zverev
Plays: Win 3 & Exacta 3-2
Let’s build a bankroll for a huge weekend of racing! Good luck!
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