February is full of promotions at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet, including $2M rewards points Hit & Split opportunities on Saturday afternoons. This week we head to New Orleans for one of the biggest days on the racing calendar at Fair Grounds. The Risen Star (G2) headlines a 12-race card that includes an all-stakes Late Pick 4 sequence that kicks off at 5PM eastern/4PM local time and concludes with the Kentucky Derby qualifier. Finding ways to separate from the public appears a challenge, but here is how I will approach things.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Mineshaft (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4 Moonlight; 3 Cadet Corps; 7 Stowaway
Backups: None
Forecast: It could get chalky late, so I will take a swing against the two runners likely to be used most to kick things off. #6 Hit Show is the class of the field and will take some beating, but lacks early speed and might prefer going a touch longer at this point in his career. He is almost certain to be used far more frequently than any other runner. I also am willing to fade Louisiana (G3) winner #2 Accelerize. The son of Omaha Beach took advantage of a favorable voyage over the inside part of the track last month and will be a much shorter price on Saturday. #4 Moonlight is the one I like most, but will use three horses equally. Moonlight did not have things his way in the Louisiana and has had an “in and out” pattern of late. He could be set for his best with Jose Ortiz staying onboard. Gaining separation in this $250,000 event over the main track seems like a must.
Race 10: Fair Grounds (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Kupuna; 2 Brilliant Berti
Backups: 6 Montador
Forecast: I had a more difficult time getting creative in the lone turf race in the sequence. #7 Kupuna has been finishing his races strong since arriving in New Orleans. A repeat of his last will make him tough, but #2 Brilliant Berti is impossible for me to not include. He may not be cranked off the bench, but draws inside and has kept the best company. A strong 5YO campaign seems well within the range of outcomes for this Cherie DeVaux trainee. A win off the four-month break at 9-furlongs would only add to my confidence.
Race 11: Rachel Alexandra (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Bella Ballerina
Backups: None
Forecast: I have no interest in trying to beat 2-1-ML favorite #3 Bella Ballerina in her first start as a 3YO. The younger sister to champion filly Pretty Mischievous won going away on debut and then held on late when being forced to make first run at a runaway speed in the Golden Rod (G2) to end her 2YO season. The Brendan Walsh trainee has prepared forwardly over this surface and meets a field she should handle to kick off her 2026 season.
Race 12: Risen Star (G2)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4 Paladin
Backups: 5 Chip Honcho
Forecast: #4 Paladin enters his first start as a 3YO as one of the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby based on his two races as a juvenile. The Chad Brown trainee’s performances were both flattered by Renegade’s impressive win in the Sam F. Davis last month and he meets a lackluster group all things considered. Paladin is unlikely to be a good bet at his likely off-odds despite being by far the likeliest winner, so if you are committed to trying to beat him on Saturday, #5 Chip Honcho makes the most sense to me. He showed grit to win a subpar edition of the Gun Runner before being caught wide after a slow break in the Lecomte (G3). Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen takes the blinkers off this Connect colt and turns to Luis Saez. An improved effort is expected, but one that is unlikely to be beat Paladin’s “B+” game.
.svg){kind=logo}
