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Last week’s Late Pick 4 Hit & Split at Fair Grounds went so well (even though I went 3 of 4) that the team at 1/ST BET and XpressBet is wheeling it back again this Saturday for the stakes-laden card in New Orleans. Two million 1/ST Rewards Points once again are up for grabs for a sequence that gets rolling with an outstanding edition of the $100k Tenacious and includes a two-turn turf stake and a Kentucky Oaks points race. Let’s get to it!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Tenacious S.
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1 Track Phantom
Backups: 2 Kinetic
Forecast: #7 Saudi Crown is listed as the 9-5-morning line favorite in one of the more intriguing races on the card. The Always Dreaming colt has not raced since a disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He ran some big races as a 3YO, including his wire-to-wire score in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), but has not been the same horse in 2024. I am willing to let him beat me, especially because I am high on two of his rivals.
#1 Track Phantom makes his second start since battling early and tiring late in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The winner of last year’s Gun Runner and Lecomte (G3) shook off the rust going 7-furlongs at Churchill Downs last month and ran well despite understandably tiring a bit in the lane. Now, the Quality Road colt gets back to two-turns over a racetrack he has thrived over. I am expecting a big performance.
#2 Kinetic continues to improve. The Godolphin trainee got out of the gates cleaner last out and found a much more prominent spot on the backstretch under Luis Saez. He was asked on the far turn and responded with a near three-length victory in a full-field second-level allowance event at Churchill Downs. If he is within shouting distance again when they turn for home, he very well could be tough to hold off.
Race 10: Buddy Dilberto Memorial S.
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Gigante
Backups: None
Forecast: Unlike the first leg, I am unwilling to take on the morning line choice in this 1 1/16-mile event over the grass. #2 Gigante is listed at 9-5 and deservingly so. The often- underestimated Steve Asmussen trainee makes his third start off the layoff after running third to Battle of Normandy in the River City (G3) at Churchill Downs last month. The Not This Time Colt has a win and second in three starts over this course and projects to get a perfect pocket trip under leading rider Jose Ortiz. I will live and die with the multiple-stakes winning colt.
Race 11: Untapable S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Golden Gamble; 5 California Sunset
Backups: None
Forecast: This two-turn event for 3YO fillies offers up 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks to the winner and looks like a two-horse race between #4 Golden Gamble and #5 California Sunset. California Sunset beat Golden Gamble in their lone encounter back in late October at Churchill Downs, but that is not a truly fair assessment of their chances. Not only did California Sunset have the advantage of a race under her belt, but also a cleaner trip. It is difficult to hold Golden Gamble’s third on debut against her anyway, since trainer Kenny McPeek cares little about winning first out. His Laoban filly took a solid step forward in her second try albeit against a softer bunch. Anyway, as long as the pace is honest, I expect one of these two gals to come from mid-pack to get to the wire first.
Race 12:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9 Seattle Road; 12 Cromwell
Backups: 4 Pretty Capable; 8 Fanatical; 11 Native Runner
Forecast: I am taking a stand against the morning line favorites in the finale. #3 Limited Edition did not have the cleanest voyage when she disappointed at 8-5 in late October at Churchill Downs, but I have not seen enough to get excited about her at a relatively short price. #1 Morlock retains Luis Saez and draws the rail, but is unlikely to have things easy on the front end. #5 Yinzer was a seven-figure purchase, but was chilly on the board on debut and failed to impress.
I like #9 Seattle Road most. Trainer Tom Amoss thought enough of this colt to bring him to Saratoga this summer and while he did not fire that day on the lawn or in his next start in Louisville, he showed a lot more with the addition of blinkers last out. He finished extremely well along the inside and appears poised to earn his first lifetime victory. I also give a big shot to #12 Cromwell. The Cherie DeVaux colt was bet down to 2-1-favoritism in his first start at Keeneland and ran a well-beaten third while on the wrong part of the track. He draws unfavorably, but should appreciate the added ground. I will back them up with the other Amoss #4 Pretty Capable, first-time starter #8 Fanatical, and #11 Native Runner who did not run for me last out, but gets blinkers for the initial time.
Best of luck in the Bayou!
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