The popular Kentucky Downs seven-day racing meet is less than a month away, which means it is time for the two-day Kentucky Downs Preview stakes events over the Ellis Park turf course this weekend. A trio of $250k stakes races on Saturday followed up four turf stakes on Sunday make this yet another must play weekend at the “Pea Patch.” Here are a few runners I will be keying in on in Henderson, KY over the next couple of days.
Saturday, Race 7: KY Downs Preview Mint Ladies Turf Sprint S.
The stakes action kicks off with this 5.5-furlong dash over the lawn where the Louisiana-bred mare #8 Ova Charged is listed as the understandable 6-5-morning line favorite. The daughter of Star Guitar has rattled off seven straight victories since entering the Shane Wilson barn last year. She draws favorably outside of the other likely speed #7 B G Warrior and should have little issue handling this group.
I have little interest in taking on Ova Charged but hope to find value by fading #5 Red Carpet Ready. This Oscar Performance filly won three straight to start her career and has earned over $734k overall but all the success has come over the main track. The move to the lawn feels hopeful more than the plan after failing to perform at her best in two graded dirt stakes in Kentucky this spring. Perhaps she takes to the surface switch, but as the second choice I am willing to take my chances against her.
#3 Awesome Treat is the price option that intrigues most. The Awesome Patriot mare ships back down to Kentucky after three starts in Canada. She was unable to hit the board in any of those efforts at Woodbine but has been freshened up by trainer Justin Wojczynski. I expect her to be rolling late under jockey Sophie Doyle. #6 Niki Nine Doors is also worth consideration underneath in exotics. She ran well in her first start over this turf course for a barn that had an extremely strong first half of 2024.
Plays: Exacta 8-3, Trifecta Key 8 with 2+3+6
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Sunday, Race 7: KY Downs Preview Turf Sprint S.
There appears to be quite a bit of early speed signed on in the first of four stakes races on the Sunday slate. This bodes well for #2 Oceanic who looks to rebound after a disappointing trip to Toronto in late June. The son of Constitution was reportedly doing as well as ever prior to his start in the Highlander (G2) but failed to hit the board in his second start of 2024. I am willing to forgive that performance at Woodbine because the 7YO gelding found himself much closer to the early pace than normal. Look for a big bounce back effort for this Surfside Stables runner given the likelihood of a much quicker first-half mile this time around.
Plays: Win 2, Daily Double 2-4
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Sunday, Race 8: KY Downs Preview Ladies Turf Mile S.
Much like the turf sprint before it, this one-mile event for fillies and mares should see an honest early pace, which is likely to make things a bit more difficult for 3-1-morning line favorite #11 Walkathon, as well as #3 Regal Realm, and #5 Fast as Flight. They are not necessarily need the lead types but definitely are better served when the pace is not chaotic early on.
I am hopeful the logicals get caught up in an early battle or move too early and set things for #4 Neverwalkalone. The Bonne Chance Farm filly makes her second start in the States for trainer Paulo Lobo after being headstrong in her first start in nearly ten months on June 22. The daughter of Agnes Gold took a good deal of public support going off at 2-1 in a field of five at Churchill Downs back on June 22 before finishing last, but was beaten less than four lengths. I expect the multiple Grade 1 winner in Argentina to relax much kinder today off of what should be a much faster early pace. Hopefully she can settle better in the early going and come with a strong late run under jockey Christian Torres. The price should be right to find out!
Play: Win 4
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Good luck this weekend at Ellis Park and do not forget about Monday’s Late Pick 4 Hit/Split!
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