The Road to the Kentucky Derby heats up this weekend with a trio of qualifiers on Saturday afternoon. To coincide with the first 20 points to the winner races in Florida, New York, and California, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are launching our Triple Crown Prep Race Money-Back Special promotion. This gives horseplayers up to $10 back on their first win bet if their horse finishes second or third in any Derby prep from now until the Lexington (G3) in mid-April. Here are the horses I will be wagering on assuming their price remains at their morning line or higher.
Withers (3:46 PM EST) | Aqueduct Race 7
It is unlikely that the Derby winner comes from this year’s $250,000 Withers conducted at 9-furlongs, but still looking forward to watching these newly turned 3YOs compete at the challenging 1 1/8-mile distance.
I do not have a super strong opinion, but prefer #6 Captain Cook. The colt debuted in late October for former trainer Norm Casse, but was sold like all of the Marylou Whitney Stable horses at the Keeneland November 2024 sale. St Elias Stable clearly liked what they saw in his trouble trip debut going six-furlongs at Churchill Downs because they spent $410k for the son of Practical Joke. Captain Cook rewarded them right away with a dominant victory over the slop as the odds-on choice on December 28 at 7-panels. I have concerns about him getting the distance, but I like his upside far more than the rest of this group.
Play: #6 Captain Cook
Robert B. Lewis (G3) (4:30 PM EST) | Santa Anita Race 4
Bob Baffert holds a strong hand in this year’s Lewis to say the least. This should come as no surprise since the Hall of Famer has won the race a record 12 times, including the last six. Baffert has the likely three post-time favorites this year, including 2YO champion male #2 Citizen Bull (pictured). The Into Mischief colt took advantage of an easy lead when we saw him last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and merits obvious major respect in his return, but I prefer one of his stablemates.
#3 Rodriguez lost to barn buddy Romanesque in his debut at Del Mar, but lost little in defeat that day finishing second to the San Vicente (G3) runner-up. Baffert stretched the $485k Keeneland September 2023 purchase out to two-turns on January 4 and he dazzled with a 7-length score over this surface. The competition gets tougher here, but Rodriguez has put himself into the race immediately out of the gate in both starts and comes into his first stakes try off of two strong drills here in Arcadia. The son of Authentic appears poised to stamp himself as a serious player on the Road to the Derby.
Play: #3 Rodriguez
Holy Bull (G3) (5:13 PM EST) | Gulfstream Park Race 11
#2 Ferocious comes out of the best races, but I am willing to take him on as the morning line choice in this year’s Holy Bull. The Flatter colt adds the blinkers in his first try since a traffic filled fifth place run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He showed plenty of talent as a 2YO, but looks like a colt that perhaps peaked earlier than most of his crop. I much prefer others, especially taking price into account.
#3 Tappan Street and #4 Guns Loaded are the likeliest winners in the Holy Bull, but I give #1 Kinetic Control a puncher’s chance at what should be a juicy price. The Not This Time colt needs to take a big step forward to be competitive in his first start against winners, but he ran some big races as a 2YO. With over two months to freshen him up, trainer Dale Romans should have the Albaugh Family Stables runner ready for his best. Romans has been white-hot over the last two weeks. The veteran conditioner has won with 5 of his last 9 dating back to January 16, including a pair of victories on the Pegasus undercard. I will take my chances knowing if Kinetic Control finishes second or third, I get my money back.
Play: #1 Kinetic Control
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