Scott Shapiro: Del Mar $144K Pick 6 Carryover Analysis | Thursday, July 25, 2024

Kahuna Magic’s off the pace victory in Race 6 on Sunday and Gold Foot’s half-length score in the finale at odds of 25-1 paved the way to the first Pick 6 carryover of the summer on Thursday at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. With over $144k in free money offered up in the traditional Pick 6 in San Diego County, you know I will be diving in head first to kick off the racing week. Here are my thoughts on the sequence:

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 3:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Woodbine Way; 1 Aventapp
Backups: 7 Gritty Girl

Forecast: The sequence kicks off with a 5-furlong dash over the Del Mar lawn where for the first time this summer the temporary rails will be out (at 24 feet) making saving ground and finding a favorable forward position far more important. This should benefit #2 Woodbine Way who returns to the turf for the first time since being claimed by trainer Lorenzo Campuzano. The Tourist mare should relish getting back on the lawn and finding a spot where there is not a ton of early speed signed on. She does not need the lead but if jockey Geovanni Fracno gets it, she could prove to be tough to catch. #1 Aventapp has never hit the board in four starts over the Del Mar sod but trainer Mark Glatt is off to a strong start to the summer and this one should get a favorable ground saving voyage under Kazushi Kimura.

#7 Gritty Girl moves back to the turf after a pair of efforts going 1000 yards over the Los Alamitos main track. She has early speed and attracts Edwin Maldonado making a send mission likely. I will include her as a backup given her likely price.


Race 4:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2 Visceral
Backups: None

Forecast: #2 Visceral tries two turns in his second career start for trainer Mark Glatt. The $400k OBS April 2023 purchase not only ran into a buzzsaw going six-furlongs on debut at Santa Anita Park in May but got stuck behind a 50-1 shot allowing the top three finishers to all get the jump. Now Glatt takes the blinkers off and stretches this son of Violence out to two turns in a race that features a number of runners that have had far too many opportunities to get excited about. Expecting a big effort after the troubled trip along the rail in his first try.



Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Sassy Prancealot
Backups: 4 Baby Kristen

Forecast: The second turf sprint of the sequence is a state-bred first-level allowance event of course at five-furlongs. #4 Baby Kristen is listed as the 5-2-morning line choice shipping south for veteran conditioner Bill McLean. The Cat Burglar mare is very likely to find herself on the lead but has really struggled to finish the deal on the lawn evidenced by her 0 for 5-record with just one second. She is capable of taking this field gate-to-wire but I much prefer #9 Sassy Prancealot. The Phil D’Amato trainee has been well backed in both career starts, including her first over the grass last out where she was clearly still learning things yet dominant in her nearly three-length win. She should sit another great trip under Antonio Fresu and makes for an intriguing single in the sequence with the public likely to also include Baby Kristen at the very least.


Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Splashed in Gold; 2 Antibes; 12 Doradus; 7 Eddie’s Wave
Backups: None

Forecast: #10 Ocasek was made the lukewarm 7-2-morning line favorite by Del Mar oddsmaker Jeff Siegel coming in off a third-place effort against better last month at Santa Anita. There is not a lot of quality form to go off of in this spot, so I understand the public potentially flocking to this Candy Ride gelding. However, I am willing to let him beat me after failing at odds-on last time out despite a favorable stalking trip. I will use several in hopes of separating a bit from the public.

#4 Splashed in Gold failed to beat a horse home in his debut effort on June 9 after being tough to relax early, but that came against far better competition than he encounters here. The Cal-bred appears spotted to win on the move from turf-to-dirt by trainer Bob Hess Jr. Hess also sends out #12 Doradus who has not raced since January of 2023 but moves off the inside for the first time and gets some class relief. #2 Antibes also takes the drop to the bottom in his first start off the claim for trainer Kelly Bainum. Bainum adds the blinkers and spots this son of Smiling Tiger realistically in his first start since late May. #7 Eddie’s Wave underwhelmed on debut but took some public support going off at 3-1. The George Todaro homebred appears set for a move forward in his second lifetime start.



Race 7: Cougar II Stakes (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Reincarnate
Backups: None

Forecast: The stakes action for the first full week of racing at Del Mar gets started with this 10-furlong affair over the main track where #4 Salesman is listed as the 8-5-favorite. The 7YO gelding relished the added ground two-back in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2) earning a career best 92 Beyer. Clearly the big effort on the Breeders’ Cup undercard took a lot out of him though, since he did not compete in the afternoons again until March when he failed to beat a horse home in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). The Richard Mandella trainee gets some class relief here but I prefer the 9-5-second choice #3 Reincarnate. The Good Magic colt ran against the best 3YOs in the land in 2023 and has put forth three solid efforts against graded stakes foes since kicking off his 4YO campaign for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. He meets the softest field he has encountered in sometime and should have no issue getting the 1 � mile distance.  


Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 In Suspense; 3 Nation
Backups: 1 Rowley; 9 Sweet Odyssey

Forecast: The sequence concludes with a challenging MSW event at one-mile over the lawn where #3 Nation is an understandable 5-2-morning line favorite for trainer Michael McCarthy. The son of Constitution debuted last fall at Keeneland where he was went off as the 3-1-pubiic choice in a two-turn race for protected maidens. The 4YO gelding was still green but showed a lot of talent to come from off the pace to finish second. A move forward and he will be tough to beat but he is coming off a significant layoff for a new barn, so he may need the race. With that in mind, I went to #7 In Suspense on top. The son of Mendelssohn has shown an affinity for the lawn rattling off back-to-back career best Beyers since switching surfaces for trainer Ryan Hanson. Hanson’s $2.77 ROI in Del Mar turf routes over the last three years makes this one a must use with Juan Hernandez jumping aboard for the initial time.

#1 Rowley and #9 Sweet Odyseey both make their second lifetime start for trainer Phil D’Amato after off the board finishes to get their careers started. They both are capable of improving for a barn that has clicked with 21% of their turf routers at Del Mar over the last two years.


Good luck!

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