Another big weekend of summer racing is approaching and as always 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are here to make it that much better. The focus this Saturday afternoon is Colonial Downs and the Grade 1 Arlington Million card that also includes the Grade 2 Secretariat and Grade 2 Beverly D. All three graded stakes events are contained in the late Pick 4, which happens to be a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split! Just register for the promotion, connect the dots, and collect your share!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Secretariat (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Simulate; 7 Cairo Caper
Backups: None
Forecast: The first graded stake of the afternoon is this one-mile two-turn event for 3YOs over the grass where I respect the chances of morning line favorite #8 Dream On and second choice #2 Maui Strong, but prefer a pair that should offer better value to kick off the sequence.
#4 Simulate is my top choice. The Kitten’s Joy colt has to answer the class test as well as prove he can be at his best without Lasix, but there is no doubt he comes into this race in the best form of his young career. His last was a big step forward from his 3YO debut when he was not ridden aggressively by jockey Junior Alvarado in what looked like a perfect comeback race. Hopefully, he is primed for his best third off the layoff. #7 Cairo Caper also intrigues. The Phil Schoenthal trainee was caught wide last out in the Penn Mile (G3) while Dream On had a much more favorable trip in route to victory. If jockey Victor Carrasco can work out a better voyage, this gelding is within a legitimate shot.
Race 10: Beverly D. (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Beach Bomb; 2 Be Your Best; 5 Spanish Eyes
Backups: None
Forecast: This race for fillies and mares used to be one of this division’s premier races, but is no longer close to that. That said, there are some honest horses in here in search of a victory in this 1 3/16-mile test over the Colonial sod.
I lack a strong opinion in a race where #2 Be Your Best is clearly the deserving favorite. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee has not raced since a dominant wire-to-wire score in the Gamely (G1) in late May. The 5YO mare was really good at a young age for trainer Horacio De Paz and now has turned back into a serious horse once again under the care of Joseph. I do not expect her to have things easy on the front end in this spot, but she will take some beating if she fires her best.
#3 Beach Bomb and #5 Spanish Eyes have the best chance of besting Be Your Best. Beach Bomb will have to prove she can win without an easy lead, but has put forth a pair of strong seconds after easy trip victories in Florida this winter. Luis Saez is in to ride. Spanish Eyes has not had things her way in the last couple, so big improvement is to be expected. However, the fact she is eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime makes it tough to get excited about her unless she floats up above her 9-2-morning line offering.
Race 11: Arlington Million (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Fort Washington
Backups: None
Forecast: Last year’s runner-up #8 Integration (pictured) was understandably made the 8-5-ML favorite in this year’s Million. The son of Quality Road has earned over $1.6M, has finished first or second in all four starts over this course, and simply brings the strongest resume in. He makes a lot of sense, but the tote board will reflect that. I prefer his stablemate #6 Fort Washington. The 6YO son of War Front has already raced 27 times, but comes into his third start of the form cycle primed for a good one. The Magic Cap Stables runner has not had honest paces to run at in his last two starts, but still made a strong account of himself both times against graded stakes foes. His effort two-back in the Dinner Party (G3) was the more impressive run not only because he hit the wire first, but he also was able to show the ability to win without a hot pace to run at. That said, he should get an honest tempo on Saturday with #2 Time Song, #3 Vesting, and #4 Runaway Storm all likely to flash early zip. Junior Alvarado should be able to save ground early and come with a strong run late to get the money!
Race 12:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Outrunner
Backups: None
Forecast: I am all in on 3-1-second choice #3 Outrunner in the finale. The American Pharoah colt makes his third start as a 3YO after a better than looks second to 3-5-favorite Tom’s Magic in the Tale of the Cat at Monmouth Park in late June. He gets Lasix for the first time and Luis Saez. He should have no issue picking up his first victory against winners for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr.
Good luck!
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