Tropical Storm Debby has forced racing officials at Colonial Downs to move the Arlington Million Day, but the good news is it was rescheduled just one day later.
The 12-race Sunday card in Virginia features a late Pick 4 sequence over the last four races that includes the Secretariat (G2), Beverly D. (G2), and Million (G1) and you guessed it, another promotion at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET to support the promo. This time it is a Hit & Split for 2M rewards points. Just remember to register to become eligible.
Here are my thoughts on a sequence that does not appear to have a ton of upside for a huge payout, so I will go thinner and attempt to hit it multiple times.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Secretariat (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Brilliant Bertie
Backups: 9 Trikari
Forecast: The sequence kicks off with this Grade 2 event for three-year-olds at one-mile and there should be an honest pace given the presence of #3 Bear River and #8 Mattingly amongst others. This bodes well for the 5-2-morning line favorite, #1 Brilliant Berti. The Noble Mission colt has rattled off three straight wins after an off the board finish to kick off his career. He draws favorably to the inside and attracts the services of Frankie Dettori.
#9 Trikari brings the strongest resume into the Secretariat with wins already in the American Turf (G2) and most recently the Belmont Derby (G1). The Oscar Performance colt clearly has a nose for the wire and is hard to knock, but he could get caught wide much of the journey being drawn to the far outside in his first start over the Colonial lawn.
Race 10: Beverly D. (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Moira (pictured above)
Backups: 4 Fev Rover
Forecast: This year’s Beverly D appears to be a two-horse race between last year’s champion #4 Fev Rover and the Ontario-bred #6 Moira. Fev Rover has been freshened up by trainer Mark Casse after a runner-up effort at odds on in the Nassau (G2), another race she won last year. The 6YO mare is at her best when on or right off the lead, but with #1 Libban entered, she may be a further off the pace. Libban has flashed tactical speed regularly in much shorter races. Seemingly, her only chance of springing the upset is to take the field gate-to-wire, so I expect jockey Edgard Zayas to be aggressive early. This is more than likely to set things up for Moira.
Moira heads into her fifteenth career start having earned over $1.5M for trainer Kevin Attard. The Ghostzapper mare has failed to cross the wire first in three consecutive races but those were all against Grade 1 competition where she still finished in the money. Look for Jose Ortiz to come with a strong late run good enough to nail last year’s winner at the wire.
Race 11: Arlington Million (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Integration
Backups: None
Forecast: The pace should be honest in this year’s Million given the presence of #3 Sugoi and #6 Talk of the Nation. This bodes well for the top three choices on the morning line, including 8-5- favorite #4 Nations Pride. The Godolphin homebred has won 9 of 17 overall and over $2.8M in his career but has failed to get to the wire first so far in 2024. It would be far from shocking if Charles Appleby won another Grade 1 turf race in the States but I do prefer the second choice.
#1 Integration heads into the 2024 Arlington Million a perfect 3 for 3 over this turf course, including a win in last years’ Virginia Derby (G3). The Quality Road colt handled the soft going last time out in the Million Preview S, which bodes well for his chances in here given the amount of moisture this course took over the last few days. Kendrick Carmouche should be able to save ground throughout in this one’s second start off the bench.
Race 12: allowance
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2 Doctor Jeff; 6 Charmed
Backups: 8 Point Liam
Forecast: The Million Day card concludes with a first-level allowance over the lawn. #2 Doctor Jeff is the one to beat coming in off a pair of efforts at Laurel Park for high-percentage conditioner, Kieron Magee. The Street Boss gelding has the speed to make the lead or sit just off the pace from his inside draw. He should find the wire first for the fifth time in his career. #6 Charmed also makes sense coming in off a neck defeat at Laurel. He makes his third start off the layoff and has hit the board in both starts over this turf course.
#8 Point Liam is worth including as a backup. The Liam’s Map gelding has been competing against similar at Monmouth Park for trainer Terri Pompay. He ran well in both starts over this course last year and should be finishing well under Trevor McCarthy.
Good luck on Milion Day!
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