Saturday is a big day of racing both in Louisville and Toronto and Xpressbet and 1/ST BET are celebrating with a promotion involving the cards at Churchill Downs and Woodbine Racetrack. Simply bet at least $100 on the Stephen Foster Day card at Churchill and $100 or more on the Canada Racing Festival Card at Woodbine and score a $25 bonus. This would be a fun promotion on average cards, but it is that much better given the high quality of racing at these two venues on Saturday.
Here is how I plan to go about earning my $25:
Saturday, Churchill Downs
Race 5:
There should be an honest early pace at the very least in this first-level allowance event for 3YO fillies at two-turns. I am hopeful #12 Yes Indeed will be able to navigate a favorable off the pace trip from her far outside draw. The $850,000 daughter of Bolt d’Oro has raced three times thus far, including a pair of runs at a route of ground and has the most upside in this group. Things did not go her way on debut in New Orleans when she got off to a slow start and ran a much-better than looks seventh but she bounced back in a big way in her second start when she stretched out and got a much more favorable voyage. She ran fine in her first start against winners at Keeneland in April before heading to the sidelines for a nearly three-month break but once again did not have a great trip. With several morning drills under her belt since her last race, the OBS April 2022 purchase should be set for a career best performance at a playable 6-1-morning line price. I will bet her to Win and play a Daily Double into my top choice in the sixth.
Wagers:
$30 Win 12
$10 Daily Double 12-5
Total = $40
Race 6
This second-level allowance event at a mile and a sixteenth features a number of horses who probably have already seen their best days but that is not the case for #5 Hurry Hurry. The son of Accelerate is 4 for 10 in his career with one of those victories coming over this surface back on May 10. Trainer Matthew Sims has been patient with this colt and thus far it has paid off. Hurry Hurry finished a non-threatening third at this level last out but meets a softer group in here and should be ready to get back to his best in his third start off the break. He should be rolling late under Luan Machado.
Wager: $30 Win 5
Race 11: Stephen Foster (G1)
Admittedly, I had a tough time getting past the top choices in this year’s Foster. #2 First Mission is the deserving favorite off of his four-length victory over the off going in the Alysheba (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. The Street Sense colt has done very little wrong thus far and is likely to find his way to the front end. #9 Skippylongstocking is extremely likely to go off as the second choice and should sit just off First Mission early on. The son of Exaggerator has earned nearly $2.3 million and has proven he can take his game on the road. These two stand out a bit against this field. I expect one to win.
With the likelihood of a logical winner, the value is likely to come underneath in the exotics where I am hoping to squeeze #1 Pyrenees into the number. The Into Mischief colt has not run as fast as First Mission or Skippylongstocking but has improved steadily and could be sitting on a career best at the right time. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has been up close to the early pace in his last few starts but I expect him to sit more of a mid-pack ground saving trip on Saturday with Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks winning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. back aboard.
Wagers:
$2 Trifecta Wheel 2+9 with 1 with 2+4+5+9 = $12
$2 Trifecta Wheel 2+9 with 2+4+5+9 with 1 = $12
$ 3 Exacta 2+9 with 1 = $6
Total +$30
Saturday, Woodbine
Race 1:
The Canada Racing Festival kicks off with a maiden special weight for 2YOs conducted at six-furlongs over the sod and I expect a big move forward for #6 Mobula. The Twirling Candy filly broke from the rail on debut and was caught along the inside in a three-horse battle on the front end before understandably tiring late. Trainer Nathan Squires is just 1 for 9 over the last 30 days but five of his starters have hit the board, so he is clearly sending out live runners. With the invaluable racing experience under this gal’s belt and a more favorable outside draw, the Keeneland September 2023 purchase makes for an interesting option to get things rolling up north.
Wager: $20 Win 6
Race 6: Selene Stakes (G3)
The Selene is the first of five graded stakes events on the Canada Racing Festival card and there is no doubt #7 Witwatersrand merits big respect off of her dominant four-length romp in a seven-furlong non-graded stake last month. The Qatar Racing filly has won 3 of 4 over this surface and has already won at a route of ground last year, but I prefer #6 Waves of Mischief at what should be a better price. The Into Mischief filly won going two-turns on debut at Keeneland and then was beaten in her first start against winners in the Hilltop at Pimlico. Trainer Brendan Walsh often means business when shipping to Toronto posting a 4 for 22-record at Woodbine over the last three years with an ROI of $2.94. Walsh’s addition of blinkers should help Waves of Mischief move forward in her third lifetime try.
Wager: $40 Win 6
Race 8: Dominion Day Stakes (G3)
Last time out, #6 Paramount Prince was beaten to the lead in his first start in nearly three months. That seems unlikely on Saturday where on paper there is very little early speed signed on in this 9-furlong event over Woodbine’s all-weather surface. The Society’s Chairman gelding has been unable to get to the wire first thus far in his career when stalking just off the pace but when he controls the early tempo, he has proven tough to get by. That should be the case in his second start off the bench with regular rider Patrick Husbands back aboard. Gate-to-wire in the Dominion Day!
Wager: $40 Win 6
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