The Iroquois Stakes has been far from a productive prep for the “Run for the Roses” over the years, but it represents the start of the Road to Kentucky Derby once again in 2025. The Grade 3 event for 2YOs headlines a strong card at Churchill Downs that includes five stakes and the kickoff to the 2025 Kentucky Oaks as well.
Here are a few horses I will be leaning on Saturday in Louisville:
Race 7: Locust Grove (G2)
The late Pick 5 gets started with this 1 1/16 -mile event for fillies and mares where #7 Shotgun Hottie (pictured above) looks tough to beat. The daughter of Gun Runner has been freshened up after a pair of runner-up efforts at the Grade 2 level this summer, including her neck defeat two-back in the Fleur de Lis (G2) to Scylla. In that late June run at Churchill Downs, the 5YO mare was buried along the inside crying out for room, yet did not find clear sailing until it was too late. This time around though, the Cherie DeVaux trainee draws outside, which should allow new jockey Jose Ortiz to stay out of traffic. If Ortiz is able to navigate a clean outside stalking trip and avoid a wide voyage into the first turn, Shotgun Hottie should be very tough to beat.
Play: #7 Shotgun Hottie (2-1 ML)
Race 8: Pocahontas (G3)
The Road to the Kentucky Oaks kicks off on Saturday with a wide-open edition of the Pocahontas (G3). A contentious pace appears highly likely in this one-turn mile event over the main track. In fact, it is difficult to state with confidence, which of the fourteen fillies will relax off the pace early and finish with the most energy.
#13 Kimchi Cat is the filly I like most. She has done little wrong through two starts for the same connections that won the 2019 Kentucky Oaks with Serengeti Empress. The Twirling Candy filly showed the ability to stalk just off the pace in her victory against non-graded stakes foes at Saratoga last month, a strategy I anticipate Tyler Gaffalione using once again on Saturday afternoon. The only issue I have is her likely off odds. 9-2 on any filly in a race like this seems less than ideal, so I will look to a runner that should go off at significantly higher odds.
#14 Liam in the Dust was hammered down to even-money in her debut at Ellis Park on August 11. The Liam’s Map filly was part of the early proceedings that day, put the other speeds away, and won for fun in the end. The fact her debut was at seven-furlongs and she appeared to have plenty left late bodes well for her as she stretches out to a mile in this one. Hopefully, she can find a way to relax early and avoid getting caught up with all the speed signed on to her inside.
Play: #14 Liam in the Dust (15-1 ML)
Race 10: Iroquois (G3)
Twenty-one points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are on the line in a race that has seen a 6-5-favorite or lower fail to get to the wire first in four consecutive years. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but at the same time it makes some sense. Young horses that ran big in starts in the spring and early summer have often just matured earlier than their crop. By mid-September, plenty have caught up with them.
#5 Owen Almighty is likely to go off as the favorite in this year’s Iroquois and deservingly so. The son of Speightstown has dominated in both of his first two starts for trainer Brian Lynch, including his easy win last out in the Ellis Park Juvenile when he disposed of #12 Politicallycorrect relatively easily in the lane. It is hard to knock Owen Almighty, but he has gotten stress free outside stalking voyages in each of his first two starts. Now, he draws in between runners. This is likely to lead to a much different type of trip than he had in his initial two tries making a short price a little tough to swallow.
Much like Owen Almighty, #7 Sandman was all the rage before his debut in late June. The type of colt you hear about long before the morning of his first start. He did not show his best stuff in that stalk and fade effort in Louisville, but bounced back in career start number two when he relaxed professionally along the inside and out finished the 8-5-public choice. This $1.2M purchase should love getting an extra furlong in his first start against winners. Hopefully, we get the morning line price.
Play: #7 Sandman (6-1 ML)
Good luck on Saturday!
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