The first stakes-laden card in Louisville since Derby Day offers horseplayers an All-Stakes late Pick 5 sequence that kicks off in Race 7 with the Aristides S. and concludes with a competitive edition of the Audubon S. Let’s dive into what is one of the better wagering opportunities of the weekend with the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival on the horizon.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: Aristides S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Tejano Twist; 8 Here Mi Song; 4 Skelly
Backups: 7 Surly Furious
Forecast: There is no doubt this 6-furlong dash over the main track goes through #3 Skelly. The Practical Joke gelding has rattled of 3 of 4 in 2024 with his lone defeat being a runner-up effort in a Grade 3 in Saudi Arabia. The Steve Asmussen trainee is very fast and has proven tough to catch, but has developed a poor habit of late of breaking slowly. This did not cost him in his two recent victories at Oaklawn Park, but eventually as the competition continues to get tougher it will. That might not be on Saturday, but at a very short price he is not unbeatable.
#1 Tejano Twist is an interesting alternative despite an 0 for 4 start to his 5YO campaign. The Chris Hartman trainee is just 2 for 11 under the twin spires, but if there is a contentious early pace he should be rolling under Rafael Bejarano. If the pace is more moderate, #8 Here Mi Song is not without a chance. He got a good forward ride and trip in the Churchill Downs (G1) with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle for the initial time and finished a solid second at odds of 20-1. Look for Gaffalione to stay as close as possible to Skelly in the early going with the hopes of reeling him in late. #7 Surly Furious needs to run a career best to beat this group, but I love the cutback for the Upstart gelding. At 30-1, I will include him on the turn back.
Race 8: Shawnee (G3)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6 Xigera
Backups: None
Forecast: This two-turn event for the ladies kicks off an All-Stakes Pick 4 sequence where 1/ST Bet and XpressBet are offering up a Hit It & Split It for 2.5 million rewards points and I am all in on #6 Xigera. The talented filly opted to skip the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2023 to set her up for a huge 4YO season, but her 2024 campaign did not get off to a good start when she failed to fire in the La Troienne (G1). There is always a chance that during her time on the sidelines Xigera lost her edge or interest in competing, but I am willing to bank on the fact she just hated it out there in the slop on the first Friday in May. With rain the forecast, the Nyquist filly may be forced to deal with an off track again, but if not I expect her to rebound in a big way on the class drop for trainer Phil Bauer. Look for Julien Leparoux to stalk just off likely pacesetter #9 Hidden Connection and help prove Xigera is too good for this bunch.
Race 9: Regret (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Buchu
Backups: 2 Everland; 9 Pin Up Betty; 1 Way to Be Marie
Forecast: The pace should be honest in this year’s Regret (G3) given the presence of #5 Poolside With Slim, as well as #1 Way to Be Marie and #10 Faith Understood. Of the trio of potential pacesetters, I prefer Way to Be Marie who moves back inside after battling three-wide in the Edgewood (G3) before putting away the other speeds, but being unable to hold off eventual winner, Dynamic Pricing. If she can avoid getting up caught in an early battle, she certainly is more than capable of earning her first graded stakes score. However, I do prefer others with her unlikely to have things easy on the front end.
There is little doubt that if they go at it early, #6 Buchu is the likeliest to take advantage. The Rigney Racing runner failed to fire her best shot over the yielding going on Oaks Day, but she does seem to be a filly that prefers being in the clear as opposed to being in between or inside rivals. With a clean voyage, she should earn her fourth lifetime victory. For those in search of bigger prices, #2 Everland and #9 Pin Up Betty intrigue. Everland had a great season over the all-weather at Turfway Park and did not disgrace herself over the main track in the Kentucky Oaks. She tries the lawn for the first time since her debut in Canada last September. Pin Up Betty has burnt a ton of money already for Mike Maker, but she has rattled off back-to-back career best performances since moving to the turf and should get first run on the closers.
Race 10: Blame (G3)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9 Cagliostro; 2 Highland Falls
Backups: 1 Frosted Departure; 11 Trademark
Forecast: The local prep for this year’s Stephen Foster is led by #2 Highland Falls. The Curlin colt has been managed patiently by trainer Brad Cox and it appears to have paid off. His lone off the board finish in his six-race career came when shipping west in March for the “Big Cap,” but he rebounded in a big way in his runner-up effort to Skippylongstocking in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in late April. The Godolphin homebred finally puts back-to-back races together without a freshening and should get a great ground saving voyage under regular rider Florent Geroux. I have no real knocks other than price. #9 Cagliostro should offer better value in his second start off the bench for hot training Cherie DeVaux. The Upstart colt has taken awhile to figure out the mental side of things, but has always had a lot of talent. That was on display when he showed better professionalism in his allowance victory in mid-April at Keeneland. He should be sitting on a career best effort in his second try as a 4YO.
With #4 Uncle Jake, #7 Classic Causeway, and #10 Five Star General likely to scratch after competing in a wash-off race on Memorial Day, the pace is a bit murky. #1 Frosted Departure is not likely good enough to beat these, but he could get brave on the lead under Julien Leparoux. #11 Trademark put in a clunker over the off track in the Alysheba (G2), but has run some huge races in Louisville. He should get a favorable stalking trip under veteran Martin Garcia.
Race 11: Audubon S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Cameo Performance; 8 Twirling Point
Backups: 10 Can Group
Forecast: #3 Cameo Performance takes on winners for the first time in his second Stateside start for Brendan Walsh. The Oscar Performance colt got hammered down to 4-5-favortisim at Keeneland on April 14th and ran well besting next out winner Green Light by a little over a length in the end. The $210K Keeneland September 2022 purchase has a ton of upside still, tactical speed to work out his own trip, and should relish the added half-furlong.
#2 Cugino is listed as the 7-2 top choice on Mike Battaglia’s morning line, but I will take a stand against on top. The Twirling Candy colt was caught wide in his runner-up efforts in March and April, but worked out a pretty clean voyage in an underwhelming addition of the American Turf (G2) and still lacked a serious rally. The inside draw and presence of Flavien Prat are positives, but I am concerned with his will to win at this point. #8 Twirling Point scratched out of both the Caesars at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the James W. Murphy at Pimlico with them both coming off the grass in May. He should be sitting on a big performance off of the unplanned freshening. #10 Can Group failed to fire over the good going on Derby Day, but has races that put him in mix. He should be a big price.
Good luck!
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