Thursday evening marks the second-to-last Twilight Thursday card of the Churchill Downs spring meet with racing in Kentucky moving to Ellis Park at the beginning of July. The penultimate 8-race slate kicks off at the normal 5PM eastern time and is headlined by a first-level allowance event over the sod. Here are the horses I like most.
Race 4:
This $30k maiden claimer at one-mile over the main track kicks off the early Pick 5 where #5 Susan’s Boy was made the heavy 6-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The $850k Keeneland September ’23 purchase has certainly not panned out as planned, but drops in for a tag for the first time. He is capable with the decrease in competition, but his lack of early speed is concerning. I will try to get the jump on him with #2 Kuch. The son of Silver State debuted in a two-turn grass race at Horseshoe Indianapolis 16 days ago for Brendan Walsh. Kuch sped to the early lead that day, but set honest fractions in a race that absolutely fell apart late. Now, Walsh cuts him back in distance, drops him in class, and legs up his main man Tyler Gaffalione. He should finish a lot stronger against these.
Play: #2 Kuch (7-2 ML)
Picks: 2-5-4
Race 7:
The pace should be contentious in this $50k starter at 7-furlongs over the main track with the three potential speed horses lined up next to each other along the inside. #2 Sharons Beach, #3 Attersee, and #4 Social Hour are all three likely to be prominent early given clean breaks, which should set things up perfectly for #6 Palacios. The son of Enticed makes his first start in the Blue Grass State and since entering the Will Walden barn. When we saw Palacios last, he was coming from off-the-pace to finish second to a runner at Laurel Park that would likely be a significant favorite in this spot. The fact he moves into the white-hot Walden barn and should get a great setup for his late kick make him the clear one to beat. Hopefully, the presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. does not deflate his price too much.
Play: #6 Palacios (5-2 ML)
Picks: 6-8-9
Race 8:
My final play comes in the finale, which will be conducted at 1 1/8-miles over the lawn where #5 Supercharger is expected to take a lot of public support based on Nick Tammaro’s morning line odds. The 8-5-choice comes in off a win going away over this surface and distance for Cherie DeVaux, but got a huge setup and a ground saving voyage throughout from jockey Jose Ortiz. This could happen again considering Ortiz is riding as well as he ever has, but the price will be too short for me.
I will try to best him with #7 Rothschild. The son of Uncle Mo makes his first start since entering the Norm Casse barn and while he has not won since the summer of ’23, he has turf races to go back to that put him squarely in the mix. This is a horse that was 2-1 in a Grade 2 at Santa Anita in the fall of 2024 and just has not raced a lot since. His last in the money run over the grass came at Gulfstream Park last March when Luis Saez was aboard. Saez will be back in the saddle for the first time in this one and should have the 5YO in a good spot early. His upside is too high for me to pass him up at his likely off-odds.
Play: #7 Rothschild (6-1 ML)
Picks: 7-8-5
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