Saturday at Churchill Downs is the first stakes-laden card since Kentucky Derby Day nearly two months ago. The 12-race slate is headlined by the $2M Stephen Foster (G1) featuring morning line favorite Sovereignty. The Bill Mott trainee aims to turn the tables on White Abarrio, who handled him relatively easily in Arkansas in April. In addition to the headliner, the card also features a plethora of undercard stakes races and horizontal wagering opportunities. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are here to make those horizontal wagers that much more enticing with a quartet of $2500 Hit & Split offers spread over the course of the card. Three Pick 5’s and a Pick 4 are available, so be sure to head to the offers page not only to register, but also to confirm the details.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: C+
Use: 1 Motivated Mensch; 2 Bet On Silver; 5 Antivenom; 12 Celtic Mo; 4 Twinkle Town
Forecast: $1.8M FTS August ’25 purchase #11 Powerline was made the 8-5-ML favorite in this full-field of 2YOs competing at 6-furlongs over the main track. The son of Flightline has a pair of bullet gate drills for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, but I am unwilling to swallow the short price given the far outside draw and lack of racing experience. I will try to beat the chalk with a number of horses in the early horizontals, including a pair of big prices on the inside. #2 Bet On Silver chased the pace four-wide in his debut on June 4 in a race that fell apart late. He is tough to omit at his 20-1 ML offering. The same is true for first-time starter #1 Motivated Mensch. The rail at times is not ideal for debut runners, but the price should be right to gamble on this Jimmy DiVito trainee. DiVito has only started a pair of 2YO firsters at Churchill Downs over the last three years. Both have won. Motivated Mensch is amongst though with a chance to beat the big ticket Asmussen trainee to kick off the early Pick 5.
Race 2:
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Preside
Forecast: #5 Direct Strike appears a vulnerable favorite in this two-turn dirt race for MSW foes. The Into Mischief colt has lost against softer fields twice already at the meet, including last out when he was beaten soundly at odds of 4-5. I much prefer #4 Preside. The pricey son of Tiz the Law broke terribly on debut going 7-furlongs earlier this month before putting in a middle move and understandably tiring late. Trainer Steve Asmussen stretches him out to two-turns in his second career start where I expect a big improvement assuming he gets out of the gate in better order. Jose Ortiz takes over riding duties on the $1.5M purchase.
Race 3:
Grade: B
Use: 9 Campobasso
Forecast: This MSW event for 3YOs+ is at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where I like the chances of second-time starter #11 Campobasso. The son of Street Sense debuted over this same surface and distance on May 31 and ran a solid second in defeat. The Bob Baffert trainee lost by a head that day to an inside speed gate-to-wire winner for the George Weaver barn. He should be tough to beat in career start number two.
Race 4:
Grade: X
Use: 7 Final Story
Forecast: I know that #7 Final Story lost by a half-length at odds-on in the Sir Barton on Preakness Day, but the son of Candy Ride ran into another very talented horse in Big Cuddle. That one came back to win his next start against stakes foes, while Final Story gets some class relief in this first level allowance at 1 1/16-miles. I have little interest in trying to take on the Brad Cox runner that is likely to be a very short price once again.
Race 5: Anchorage
Grade: B-
Use: 10 Stylish Sue; 5 Tirupati/1 Warming
Forecast: I am not in love with the chances of either of the ML favorites in the first stakes race on the agenda. #9 Vive Veuve was made 5-2 by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, but I have zero interest at that price. The Collected mare comes in off a win, but over the main track at Lone Star. The draw is not ideal and her form does not stand out much to me. #8 Pin Up Betty gets class relief and has loved this course over the years, but does not appear to be the same animal she was when she won this event last year. I will let her beat me as well. #10 Stylish Sue should have a pace advantage from the outside post. She battled tougher in the Modesty (G3) before finishing second in a Grade 3 at Woodbine over their all-weather course in late May. Jose Ortiz jumps back aboard. #5 Tirupati might get overlooked by the public, but is not without a chance. The Augustin Stable mare was buried on the inside throughout in the Royal Heroine (G3) and should be primed for her best third off the bench at a big price.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Use: 2 C K Wonder; 8 Bring the Smoke
Forecast: There does not appear to be much signed on in this second-level allowance at seven-furlongs over the main track. #2 C K Wonder was ridden aggressively out of his inside draw on June 6, shrugged off his fellow pacesetter, and finished a strong second. Martin Garcia is back aboard, so I expect similar tactics on the Vekoma colt. His main competition if the race plays out favoring forwardly placed horses is 3-1-ML favorite #8 Bring the Smoke. The 4YO gelding makes his third start since entering the Whit Beckman barn this winter. The first start came at Keeneland in April where he ran a very good second to a 2-5-favorite before taking advantage of a good trip in the Maryland Sprint (G3). With the lack of speed signed on, Tyler Gaffalione is likely to have him just off the pace in the clear. He could be tough to hold off.
Race 7: Fleur de Lis (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Shred the Gnar
Forecast: This year’s Fleur De Lis is almost certainly going to be treated like a two-horse race to the gambling public. #1 Splendora is the 4-5-top choice after answering the two-turn test over this course in late May in the Shawnee (G2) with #5 Shred the Gnar back for the first time since her win in the La Troienne (G1). Splendora proved many pundits wrong last out, but she meets a much stronger challenger in this spot in Shred the Gnar. Trainer Brian Lynch keeps winning races in bunches and this gal has been freshened up after her length score in a Grade 1 on Kentucky Oaks Day. I think she is still on the improve and loves this surface. I will live and die with her in the first graded stakes race on the afternoon.
Race 8: American Derby
Grade: X
Use: 6 Alpyland
Forecast: I lack creativity in many places on this card, including the next two stakes events where I think it will be tough to beat the top choice. #6 Alpyland has won 2 of 3 with the lone loss being a fourth-place finish to Stark Contrast in the American Turf (G1). That runner would be 1-9 in this spot and the Vekoma gelding lost little in defeat that afternoon. He bounced back with a dominant win in the Penn Mile (G3) and continues to work out decent to good trips due to his speed from the gate and ability to settle. I have little desire in betting against the D J Stable runner to get the late Pick 5 started.
Race 9: Bango (G3)
Grade: X
Use: 2 Cornucopian/7 Built
Forecast: I did not find it easier to think outside the obvious in this 6.5-furlong dash over the main track where #2 Cornucopian remains at the Grade 3 level after a win at odds-on in the Aristides (G3). He did not have things his way two-back against better when down on the inside in the Churchill Downs (G1), but bounced back by showing some grit turning away Roll on Big Joe in the final furlong. He is the clear one to beat in this spot with his main rival being #7 Built. The Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners colt has run some big races and certainly has talent, but has struggled to put his best efforts together in succession. His best can beat the chalk, but he is also capable of regressing at a relatively short price.
Race 10: Wise Dan (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 1 Silent Heart; 2 Lagynos/6 Dresden Row
Forecast: I will take a small swing against the logicals in this 1 1/16-mile race over the Churchill grass with #1 Silent Heart. The son of Heart to Heart was claimed off of his gate-to-wire victory over this course in mid-May by trainer Mike Maker. Prior to that he showed big speed and tired in the final stages of an allowance turf sprint at Keeneland. He certainly has to prove he can handle the 8.5-furlongs against this level of competition, but if he can Maker is the man to do it. Luis Saez will have him on the engine most of the way. Hopefully, he has the stamina to see it out. If not, #2 Lagynos probably works out another favorable voyage and gets the money.
Race 11: Stephen Foster (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Magnitiude
Forecast: The featured event drew a field of seven, but will scratch down to five with #6 Forged Steel and #7 Navajo Warrior announced out in advance. Obviously, #3 Sovereignty is the main story making his first start under the twin spires since his win going away in the Kentucky Derby (G1) last May. He found himself on the lead off the bench in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), which is not his customary spot, so many are giving him that much more of a mulligan for getting beaten handily by #2 White Abarrio in April. I totally get the case, but I have questions about his lack of fight when confronted and the fact the number does not strike me as one that says he is certain to be better as a 4YO. I will try to beat him by getting the jump with #5 Magnitude. The scratches of the two outside runners should benefit the Dubai World Cup (G1) winner. Steve Asmussen has given the son of Not This Time plenty of time since traveling overseas to beat Forever Young and is likely to take some catching. He feels like the best gamble in this $2M 1 1/8-mile event over the main track.
Race 12: Tepin
Grade: B
Use: 6 Bohemian; 11 Turner’s Charm/7 How About Now
Forecast: The pace should be contentious in this one-mile turf event for 3YO fillies, which should benefit a pair of square prices as much as anyone. #6 Bohemian is one of them. The daughter of Essential Quality comes in off a third-place finish over this course against older runners. Trainer Joe Sharp cuts her back a half furlong and legs up the hottest rider on the continent. Both should greatly benefit this filly’s chances. #11 Turner’s Charm is likely to be last early, but can run them all down if they go at it early. She showed a strong turn of foot to win off the layoff on May 7 and can do similar if able to avoid regression in her second start off the bench. Either filly would be a great way to end the day.
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