Saturday is Opening Night at Churchill Downs with just one week until the Kentucky Derby. Let’s get off to a strong start to the spring in Louisville!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 1: Grade: C
Main Ticket: 1 Epimythium; 2 One for Richie
Backups: 7 Leader of Men; 8- Shortlist
Forecast: The pace should be honest in the opener given the presence of #3 Dreaming of Smarty and #5 Spycraft. This should set things up for a runner from off the pace. #7 Leader of Men and #8 Shortlist are the ones likeliest to take serious public support on the cutback to 1-turn, but neither are trustworthy at relatively short prices. #2 One for Richie should get a pocket trip and has tons of races to go back to, but has not won in ages. #1 Epimythium should also get a good trip on the turnback. He has not raced over a fast main track since 2021 and probably prefers turf or the all-weather, but the value should be there to take a shot.
Race 2: Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Barnaby
Backups: 3 Beer With Ice
Forecast: There is a serious lack of legitimate one-turn speed in this $10K conditional claimer at one mile. #3 Beer With Ice might have enough early zip to make the lead versus this bunch, but he does cutback from a two-turn event at Fair Grounds where he went off at 36-1 for the high percentage Chris Hartman barn. He is capable, but I prefer the class dropper #6 Barnaby. The Tom Amoss trainee attracts Tyler Gaffalione and should be right off the hip of Beer With Ice in the early going. The others are likely to have much to do late given the probable race shape.
Race 3: Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Evie’s Encore
Backups: 4 Classic Performer; 3 Thestral
Forecast: #2 Little Blaze is listed as the 3-1-morning line favorite by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, but she is worth taking a stand against. The daughter of Will Take Charge is unlikely to have things easy on the front end and has failed the public at odds-on in 2 of her last 3 tries. #5 Evie’s Encore is the one most likely to take advantage of a contentious pace. She has had things her way at Oaklawn in her last two starts, but I am not going to hold that against her too much. She appears to have turned a corner since being claimed by Chris Hartman.
Race 4: Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 10 Smokin’ Jay
Backups: 9 Outadore
Forecast: Like many five-furlong turf dashes, this second-level allowance event has a plethora of runners that want to be on or near the lead. 7-5-favorite #9 Outadore is one of those that does his best running on the front end, but he does at least draw outside the other speeds giving Abel Cedillo some options out of the gate. The six-year-old gelding clearly has soundness issues, but is 8 for 16 in his career and 4 for 6 over the lawn. He is tough to toss, but #10 Smokin’ Jay is the better wager if he is anywhere near his 8-1-morning line offering. He ran second in his only start over this course and will appreciate a hot pace to run at.
Race 5: Grade: C
Main Ticket: 6 Chryso Alogo; 5 Crafted
Backups: 1 Spanish Wells; 2 Bledsoe; 8 Saint Peter’s Bay
Forecast: They move back to the main track for the start of the Derby City 6 where once again we should see a contentious early pace in this 6.5-furlong dash over the main track. That said, this could be a race where one of the speeds is able to take heat early and still get to the wire first. I am not creative and lack a strong opinion, but #6 Chryso Alogo has a huge chance dropping in class and cutting back for Jack Sisterson, as does #5 Crafted who gets serious class relief for North America’s all-time leading trainer.
Race 6: Grade: C
Main Ticket: 10 Falcon Quest; 1 Coal Boss
Backups: 7 Cashmeup
Forecast: #7 Cashmeup is the 3-1-morning line favorite off of a near miss as the public choice at Turfway Park in mid-February. He got off to a slow start and was caught wide on the far turn and into the lane giving him a legitimate excuse for coming up a bit short. However, he is hard to get excited about at his likely off odds. Same is true of the entire group, but I prefer #10 Falcon Quest who gets blinkers and drops massively in class for Mark Simms, Jr. and #1 Coal Boss who has had 15 chances, but gets Tyler Gaffalione and blinkers back on for Greg Foley.
Race 7: Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9 Killshave Beauty; 3 La Pachanga; 10 Robin Sage
Backups: None
Forecast: I am looking forward to trying to beat #4 Hola Gata in the horizontals in this first-level allowance event over the sod. The Chad Brown filly is likely to take a lot of money coming in off of 3 straight runner-up efforts and should get a favorable race shape for high profile connections. She is highly likely to hit the board, but has proven to be a bit camera shy losing four photos by a neck or less. I also am willing to toss #2 Tituba who is going to have to work early with other speed signed on and #8 Hay Stack who also has shown an affinity for running second. #9 Killshave Beauty has not raced since a wire-to-wire debut score last October, but comes in off a long series of drills at Keeneland and did not appear to be a need the lead type. She has the most upside in the field. #3 La Pachanga has failed to run fast enough yet to beat this group and has not lived up to her $450,000 price tag, but comes in fresh and might try new tactics with Joel Rosario aboard for the initial time. They will both be on my late Pick 4 ticket, as well as longshot #10 Robin Sage who makes her first start of the year for Robby Medina.
Race 8: Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8 Queen of the Rodeo; 11 Foreseen
Backups: 1 Just Basking
Forecast: These 1-1/4 miles maiden races at Churchill often prove to be staggerfests to the wire. That certainly could be the case here where #4 Heart Headed Woman and #5 Mystical Chant should keep each other honest in the early going after both having several chances going shorter against similar competition. #1 Just Basking has shown the ability to finish in both of her first two tries, but got a favorable setup last out and is all but certain to get over bet with a pair of in the money efforts to commence her career. #8 Queen of the Rodeo is one I will definitely include. She has not raced since her debut over a year ago, but got off to a poor start in that lone try and really had no shot in a race where the front runners dominated things from start-to-finish. #11 Foreseen makes sense as well on the stretch out for Rusty Arnold after finishing second at Keeneland just ten days ago. I take it as a positive that the veteran conditioner is willing to wheel this filly back quickly.
Race 9: Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 4 Positano Sunset; 10 Condensation
Backups: 3 Speedy Traveler; 5 Zeitlos
Forecast: The first stakes race of the year in Louisville is a fun one with several ways to go. #6 Dazzling Blue makes her initial start as a four-year-old for the Brad Cox barn. The Into Mischief filly rattled off 3 consecutive victories to kick off her career before putting forth a lifetime best effort in defeat to Maple Leaf Mel in the Victory Ride. She was not the same in her two starts after the huge performance in New York. She can win, but it will be at a price I am not willing to take. #3 Speedy Traveler is one of those with early gas to her inside and enters the Roxelana a perfect 3 for 3 for Phil Bauer. This barn won at a ridiculous clip at Churchill in 2023 and is hard to completely toss despite drawing between the other potential speeds. #5 Zeitlos put in a clunker in the Matron at Oaklawn, but has done little wrong outside of that and should benefit from the likely race shape. #8 Condensation is a must use. The Frosted filly has been freshened up after a third-place finish in a non-graded stake in Arkansas. She is 3 for 4 over this surface and can spring the upset if able to get back to her September 17th, 2023 performance where she got a similar trip as I expect her to in here. #4 Positano Sunset is the one I am most intrigued by. The Ian Wilkes trainee finished off her three-year-old campaign with a pair of victories and should be rolling late at a big price under Julien Leparoux. At 8-1 or higher, I will running to the window.
Race 10: Grade:
Main Ticket: 5 Galadini; 4 Tammy’s Cruiser
Backups: 3 Starcourt; 9 Rubia; 10 Argan
Forecast: #3 Starcourt was caught wide in her debut at Turfway Park on Ruby Day, but did not show all that much either. Expect the Enticed filly to take a lot of public support with Luis Saez riding for Cherie DeVaux. If she gets bet down below 7-2, I will toss, but horizontally speaking she is probably worth including. #4 Tammy’s Cruiser rode a good rail in her first try on dirt at Keeneland over a speed favoring racetrack. She has every right to move forward on the drop. #5 Galadini moves up in class in her first start off the claim for Chris Hartman who clicks at 27% over a recent 164 start sample size. #9 Rubia and #10 Argan get some class relief and would not surprise.
Good luck!
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