At the start of the final week of the September meet at Churchill Downs there was a six-figure carryover in the Derby City 6, leading to the possibility of a massive pool with a mandatory payout this afternoon. Those hopes were dashed on Wednesday when a horseplayer scooped over $325k with a solo winning ticket. The good times continued on Friday when the pool came down again for a total of over $36k. So, things started fresh for last night’s card leaving handicappers with just over $6k for the final Pick 6 of the 14-day meeting this afternoon.
Here are a few horses I like on the closing day card today in Louisville:
Race 6:
The second leg of the Pick 6 is a MSW for 3YOs and up going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. These races often consist of mostly horses that have been proven too slow at shorter distances, but also usually contain at least one runner with some upside. In this spot, that colt appears to be #1 Commuted. The Kenny Mc Peek trainee ran well on debut against a solid bunch back on June 21 when he came with a strong run at 12-1, but missed by a head. In his subsequent start in upstate New York, the son of Gun Runner stumbled at the start and failed to fire. Now, he meets a soft group and has every reason to appreciate the added ground. Look for Brian Hernandez Jr to save ground early and get the best of this bunch in the lane.
Play: #1 Commuted (5-2 ML)
Race 9:
The pace should be contentious in this second-level allowance at one-mile, which should set things up for a runner from off the pace. #2 Call Me Fast is the most obvious of the closers. The Dialed In gelding makes his second start for trainer Joe Sharp after a sixth place run over the Kentucky Downs lawn in late August. He would not surprise, but I prefer the upside and price of #6 Snead. The Nyquist colt has not raced since New Years Eve when he finished a solid second to Track Phantom in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds. Prior to that, the Brendan Walsh trainee rattled off a pair of victories in his two other starts over the main track. The obvious question is the layoff, but Walsh is more than capable of having his horses run well fresh and this guy has been working steadily since returning to the Churchill Downs tab in August. Hopefully, he proves best in here setting him up for a strong end of 2024 and a big 2025.
Play: #6 Snead (4-1 ML)
Race 10:
The September meet finale is a MSW event for 2YO fillies at six-furlongs where I am willing to take a swing with a price. #3 Mia’s Mom did not run well in her debut at Saratoga chasing the early speed of La Cara before tiring and being eased, but I expect a bounce back performance in career start number two. The Maclean’s Music filly surprisingly took some public support in upstate New York despite her trainer Robbie Medina being just 1 for 36 with 2YO first-time starters over the last five years. It has been promising to see Mia’s Mom back on the work tab at the Thoroughbred Training Center and ready to give the afternoons another shot. I am expecting a much-improved effort with the racing experience under her belt for this younger sister of $3M earner, Skippylongstocking. Let’s close the meet out with a bang!
Play: #3 Mia’s Mom (12-1 ML)
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