There are just two weekends left at the Churchill Downs spring meet with the Kentucky circuit moving to Ellis Park starting on the Fourth of July. Next Saturday’s lineup is a massive card headlined by the Stephen Foster (G1), but do not snooze on this Saturday’s 11-race slate, especially the Late Pick 5. I found it to be one of the more appealing sequences of the weekend.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: The Chicago S.
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Vahva
Backups: 1 Society
Forecast: The Late Pick 5 kicks off with the feature, and while it only drew a field of five, it did attract two stars in #1 Society and #3 Vahva. Society has run the fastest races to date and projects to be loose on the lead, but she has not raced since the Breeders’ Cup and clearly is using this as a springboard to bigger races over the second half of 2024. Vahva’s consistency has been impressive. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has hit the board in five consecutive graded stakes events, including a two-length win in the Derby City Distaff (G1). Her recency gives her a slight edge in a race that unfortunately is tough to get creative in.
Race 8:
Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 7 Queen of Paris; 1 Penny Royal
Backups: 10 Not Guilty
Forecast: #6 Genetics has the best races thus far, and has taken on quality competition through five starts, but she has burnt a lot of money. I prefer filles that are more lightly raced with a higher ceiling in this two-turn maiden special weight event for the ladies.
#7 Queen of Paris makes her second start for Brad Cox and Godolphin after an off the pace third to kick off her career. The Tapit filly did not break well on debut or get a favorable race shape with eventual winner, Monarch dominating from start-to-finish making the performance that much more impressive. With the added ground and a better break, she will be tough to deny. #1 Penny Royal also should improve in her second lifetime try. The Curlin filly did not do that much running in her first start back on 5/25 at 7-furlongs but it looked like a prep to me. Look for a big move forward for the Stonestreet Stables homebred. #10 Not Guilty is also capable of significant improvement after a well-beaten fourth to kick off her career. The added ground and racing experience should benefit.
Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 She Called
Backups: 7 Here U Come Again; 4 Mink’s Palace
Forecast: The final Pick 3 of the afternoon gets started with a fun first-level allowance for 3YO fillies where I prefer #8 She Called. The Audible filly showed a lot of grit in her first start battling to the wire with the far more experienced Lady Moscato and then took care of business as the odds-on choice in late April to break her maiden in career start number two. There is a good deal of speed signed on in this 6.5-furlong dash over the main track, but the Norm Casse trainee draws favorably towards the outside after battling early and tiring late on May 25th in her first start against winners. If she can avoid another tussle on the front end, I like her chances.
#7 Here U Come Again is likely to go off a somewhat significant favorite for trainer Brad Cox. The Liam’s Map filly has not done much wrong through three starts and did have to battle throughout in her return race last month but she was easily out finished by a pair of Arkansas breds. The Clearsky Farms homebred is no doubt eligible for a big effort here in her second start off the bench but also is eligible to get over bet. #4 Mink’s Palace makes her third start off the layoff for Eddie Kenneally. She stalked four-wide and faded last out. The cutback should help.
Race 10: B
Grade:
Main Ticket: 7 Champlin
Backups: 4 Eye Witness; 2 Track Mate; 3 Scotland
Forecast: There is not a lot of speed at all signed on in this third-level allowance event at six panels over the main track, which benefits #7 Champlin. This son of Ransom the Moon showed his talent right away winning easily in New Orleans for a barn that rarely has their runners cranked for their best shot on debut. The 4YO gelding has done little wrong thus far and should find himself on or right off a moderate early tempo. He is the one to beat.
#4 Eye Witness makes his first start since entering the Caio Caramori barn. The City of Light colt was purchased for $205k at the Keeneland April Selected Horses of Racing Age sale. He has only raced over the main track once, but it was last out at Keeneland where he ran a solid second. He can steal it on the front end under Jaime Torres. I am a big fan of #2 Track Mate, but his lack of early zip is once again likely to put him in a tough spot, much like last month against similar. If he gets a quicker pace than it appears on paper though, I like his chances. #3 Scotland was good as a 3YO but has not moved forward as a 4YO for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. He is likely to sit a mid-pack trip and take a good deal of money like he almost always does. A defensive use only on tickets where I am using multiple prices in other legs.
Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 12 Out of Deductions; 2 Kigali; 9 Clyde’s Got a Gun
Backups: 8 Miranda Rights; 7 Fair Dinkum
Forecast: The morning line favorites in the finale make some sense but are far from unbeatable so hopefully we can separate from the public to close out the sequence.
#12 Out of Deductions finds a tough spot for his first race off the bench and drew tough to the far outside, but the price should be right. The son of Nyquist makes his first start for trainer Chris Block. Block means business when he ships into Louisville. The Illinois-based conditioner has won with 18% of his 127 starters over the years at Churchill Downs with a juicy ROI of $2.22. He legs up one of the more underrated turf riders in the country in Jareth Loveberry. #2 Kigali also intrigues in his third start off the layoff for Phil Bauer. The Hard Spun gelding is still seeking his niche but he gets a positive rider upgrade to Jaime Torres and could find himself loose on the lead as he tries a route of ground for the first time since last fall. #9 Clyde’s Got a Gun can certainly finish, so if they got at it early, he should be rolling late. That said, the 8.5-furlong distance is probably a bit too sharp for the Helen Pitts trainee.
#8 Miranda Rights is listed as the 5-2-morning line favorite on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line and can best this group after a pair of 85+ Beyers to kick off his 4YO campaign. His 1 for 8 career record on the grass though makes him tough to get overly excited about. #7 Fair Dinkum is another runner that has a chance but is likely to be an underlay. He was caught wide throughout in his return race last month but overall, his turf form is a little suspect with his lone win on the sod coming over a yielding going last year.
Good luck this afternoon!
.svg){kind=logo}
