So many wagers to choose from on Kentucky Derby Day and a slew of options that involve the “Run for the Roses” in one form or another, but one that sticks out from the rest is the Superfecta.
Horseplayers are accustomed to being able to punch 10-cent superfecta tickets regularly in the States these days, but not for the Derby where Superfecta wagering began in 1996. However, one could argue it did not take its true shape until 2001 when coupled entries were omitted, as was the Field as part of the wagering options. Since, then the payouts have been regularly massive with the largest one coming in 2005 when they went at it on the front end and Giacomo came rolling to score at 50-1. Those holding the winning ticket were rewarded with $864,253!!!
A similar race shape led to another huge score for skilled horseplayers in 2022 when Rich Strike shocked the world under Sonny Leon. The Eric Reed trainee finished on top of the two favorites Epicenter and Zandon and it still returned a juicy $321, 500.10 for a buck.
Now do not get the idea that scoring out in this fashion is easy or remotely close, but the point is this is the one-race each year in the States that offers a huge field and the dollar minimum. Therefore, if your budget allows for it, getting involved is recommended.
Here is how I will be approaching Kentucky Derby 150 with both a $100 and a $500 budget.
$100 Budget:
Normally a Ben Franklin can get you pretty far at the track when playing minimum increments, but not on the first Saturday in May. So, it is imperative to maximize things by leaning on your strongest opinions. In this Derby, that means leaning heavily on my top choice #8 Just a Touch and needing #2 Sierra Leone to find his way into the number as well. You will notice I have omitted the morning line favorite #17 Fierceness, whom I listed as a backup in a previous blog. I consider the Florida Derby winner worth including as a backup in horizontals if you like prices in other legs. I also understand including him in the Superfecta wagers if you like longshots as keys in the Derby more than I do.
You can see how quickly combinations add up with a dollar minimum even keying a horse in two slots. Essentially, 72% of my budget relies on Just a Touch winning and Sierra Leone finishing second or third. With the remaining amount, I will use Sierra Leone on top with my Just a Touch for second, but am forced to omit #7 Honor Marie in the third slot to stay under budget. I prefer making this move instead of omitting a number of runners in the four-hole.
Ticket 1:
8 with 2 with 4+6+7+21 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $36
Ticket 2:
8 with 4+6+7+21 with 2 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $36
Ticket 3:
2 with 8 with 4+6+21 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $27
Budget = $99 ($1 left for a cold Super or to put towards another bet)
$500 Budget:
Now beefing your 2024 Derby Superfecta budget to a “nickel” bumps up your options considerably, but maybe not as much as a novice to the wager might think.
I will invest a little over 43% ($216) of my budget into my first three tickets where I need my top two to make up two-thirds of the trifecta. From there, one thing the larger budget allows is the option to punch a few tickets keying my top longshot play #6 Just Steel in the second and third slots. This gives me an opportunity to score out even more if I am right. In these wagers I will include Fierceness due to his obvious ceiling.
Ticket 1:
2+8 with 2+8 with 4+6+7+21 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $72
Ticket 2:
2+8 with 4+6+7+21 with 2+8 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $72
Ticket 3:
4+6+7+21 with 2+8 with 2+8 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $72
Ticket 4:
2+4+8+17+21 with 6 with 2+4+8+17+21 with 2+4+7+8+11+17+18+19+21 = $140
Ticket 5:
2+4+8+17+21 with 2+4+8+17+21 with 6 with 2+4+7+8+11+17+18+19+21 = $140
Ticket 6:
6 with 4 with 2+8 with 2+8+21 = $4
Budget= $500
The Derby is two minutes of chaos where the break and the run into the first turn always play a massive role. Things really need to go your way regardless of your handicapping prowess, but putting together quality wagers is one thing that can give you an edge over your competition. Make sure to put as much time into constructing your wagers as you do handicapping the events!
Best of luck!
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