November in New York means quality racing on Saturday afternoons at Aqueduct and that continues this weekend with a 10-race card at the Big A headlined by a pair of stakes at two-turns over the grass. Both the Jockey Club Oaks (G3) and the Knickerbocker are included in a late Pick 4 sequence that concludes with a challenging MSW event over the sod. Here are my thoughts.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: Jockey Club Oaks (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Laurelin *pictured*
Backups: None
Forecast: The lone graded stakes on the agenda looks like a two-filly race between #4 Fionn and #7 Laurelin. Fionn comes in off her first loss since April, while Laurelin suffered her first defeat when finishing second to Lush Lips in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland last month. I respect Fionn’s campaign and late kick, but prefer Laurelin given the lack of early speed signed on. This should allow jockey Kendrick Carmouche to stalk just off the early pace of #6 Don’t Jinx It and get the jump on her main rival. The Graham Motion trainee lost little in defeat in Kentucky last out and appears poised to bounce back in a big way.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Long Pour; 4 Three B’s
Backups: 8 Share the Ludt
Forecast: The lone dirt race in the sequence is a first-level allowance event for NY-breds traveling the tricky 6.5-furlong distance. #2 Long Pour is the deserving 2-1-ML favorite on oddsmaker David Aragona’s morning line after a pair of seconds to quality horses for the level in similar spots over the last couple of months. The Tom’s d’Etat colt is the clear one to beat, but could get caught up in an early battle with #3 Roofer since he draws inside, not outside that one this time around. If they go at it early, perhaps #4 Three B’s can take advantage. The son of Collected moves up in class after an upset victory from off the pace just two weeks ago. Trainer Linda Rice thought enough of this guy to re-claim him for $12k more than she lost him for this summer at Saratoga. He loves this surface and could get the right setup with jockey Sahin Civaci jumping back aboard.
Race 9: Knickerbocker
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Air Recruit
Backups: 4 Ohana Honor
Forecast: The other stakes race on the agenda also appears to be a two-horse race between the two favorites. #4 Ohana Honor exits the best races and should be poised for a strong effort in his third start off the long layoff, but has been a bit camera shy for the most part. I prefer 3-1-second choice #7 Air Recruit. The Air Force Blue gelding has been meticulously handled by trainer Arnaud Delacour and appears to be back in strong form after being on the sidelines for close to two years following his seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) in 2023. He should find a prominent spot early under Dylan Davis. Hopefully, he handles his first 1 1/8-mile journey as well as I expect him to.
Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Mis Bruenllas; 6 Just Tell Anne
Backups: 8 Siouxse
Forecast: The finale appears the most wide-open race in the sequence with #8 Siouxsie and #12 Isadora Duncan expected to take the most public support. Both have significant chances, but certainly do not appear to be world beaters. Therefore, I will opt to feature a pair of fillies who should improve in their second start around two-turns on my main ticket.
#1 Mis Brunellas failed to relax in her first try at a route of ground, but ran a solid third nonetheless. Do not be surprised if you see her on the lead given her inside draw and the move to Hall of Famer John Velazquez. At 12-1 she seems like solid value, as does 6-1-ML shot #6 Just Tell Anne. The Ray Handal trainee was caught three-wide much of the way in the same race Mis Brunellas exits and tired late to finish fourth. Kendrick Carmouche takes over riding duties, so do not be surprised if she is involved early on as well. With both stakes races looking formful, I am hopeful we can find some value to close this things out.
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