Saratoga Scouting Report: July 24-28, 2024

‍Key Races

Wednesday | G2 Honorable Miss (f/m dirt sprint)

Thursday | Caress (f/m turf sprint)

Friday | G2 Amsterdam (3yo dirt sprint)

Saturday | G1 Vanderbilt (elder dirt sprint), G2 Jim Dandy (3yo dirt route)

Sunday | G2 Bowling Green (turf route)

Horsepower

Wednesday | G2 Bed O’ Roses winner Accede vs. Munny’s Gold (R7 G2 Honorable Miss) )

Thursday | Caress defending champ Roses for Debra vs. G2 Intercontinental winner Future Is Now (R9 Caress)

Friday | 4-time Oaklawn stakes winner Valentine Candy (R3 G2 Amsterdam); ’22 G1 Test winner Chi Town Lady (R4 allowance); ’23 G2 Vosburgh runner-up Accretive vs. ’23 G2 Pat Day Mile winner General Jim, ’23 G2 Nerud winner Three Technique & ’23 G3 Ack Ack winner Zozos (R9 allowance)

Saturday: Impressive Gulfstream debut winner Speak Easy returns (R4 allowance); 2x G3 Count Fleet winner Skelly vs. G2 True North winner Baby Yoda and ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint third-place finisher Nakatomi (R6 G1 Vanderbilt);  $1.2 million debut juvenile colt (Into Mischief-Serengeti Empress) Invictus (R7 maiden sprint); ’23 2YO champ Fierceness vs. G1 Preakness winner Seize the Grey and G1 Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (R10 G2 Jim Dandy).

Sunday: G2 Man o’ War winner Silver Knott (probable G2 Bowling Green; draw will be Wednesday).

Extra Incentives

Saturday: $10,000-added Fun in the Sun handicapping tournament (last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 Del Mar)

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites won only 14 of 51 (27%) during Week 2 of the Spa meet, including 2-11 in claiming races.

-- Trainer Chad Brown had a big Week 2, winning 7 races (32%) with a $1.63 ROI for every $1 bet. He was 59% in the exacta.

-- Trainer Mark Casse hit with precision at 7: 3-2-0 with $13, $13 and $18 winners. All 3 winners came with Dylan Davis as they were 3-for-4 in tandem.

-- Belmont at the Big A meet-leading jockey Manny Franco continued his strong run with a Week 2-best 7 wins among all riders. He hit 21% wins with a $1.76 ROI for every $1 bet. Maybe most impressively, he won for 7 different trainers.

-- Horses exiting races at Aqueduct won 24 of the 51 races during Week 2, but through 2 weeks of the season, those exiting races in Kentucky have an 18% win rate, while those exiting NYRA races have won an 11% win rate.

-- Sire Cairo Prince’s offspring are a sharp 10; 4-2-1 at the current meet, most notably a near-perfect 4: 3-1-0 on the dirt (odds 2-5, 7-1, 9-1, 18-1).

-- Jockey Luis Saez is 0-6 aboard favorites through the first 2 weeks of the meet.

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