Saratoga Scouting Report: August 7-11, 2024

‍Key Races

Wednesday | G1 Kiser Memorial (steeplechase), Johnstone Mile (NYB, f/m dirt route)

Thursday | John Morrissey (NYB dirt sprint)

Friday | Evan Shipman (NYB dirt mile), Union Avenue (NYB f/m dirt sprint)

Saturday | G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational (3yo turf route), G1 Fourstardave (turf mile), G2 Troy (turf sprint), G2 Saratoga Special (2yo dirt sprint), Galway (3yo filly turf sprint)

Sunday | Mahony (3yo turf sprint)

Horsepower

Thursday | Affirmed Success winner Rotknee (R3 Morrissey Stakes), ’23 G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational winner Aspen Grove (R5 ALW)

Friday | Commentator winner Drake’s Passage (R2 Evan Shipman Stakes), Dancing Renee winner Kant Hurry Love (R8 Union Avenue Stakes), G3 Eatontown winner Tax Implications & ’23 Gazelle winner Promiseher America (R9 ALW)

Saturday | G1 Belmont Derby winner Trikari, ’23 G1 summer winner Carson’s Run (R6 Saratoga Derby Invitational); G1 Jaipur winner and world record-setter Cogburn, ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up Big Invasion (R9 Troy Stakes); ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Master of the Seas, G3 Kelso winner Carl Spackler, G2 Wise Dan winner Ottoman Fleet (R10 Fourstardave Stakes); G3 Quick Call winner Star of Mystery (R12 Galway Stakes.

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites were 19 for 49 last week (39%), solidly stronger than previous weeks at the meeting.

-- Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was top pilot last week with 7 wins (22%) and a slight flat-bet ROI profit. Junior Alvarado not only won the G1 Whitney, but had 5 wins (33%, + ROI). Other top riders were Dylan Davis (4 wins, 24%, + ROI) and Jose Lezcano (4 wins, 31%, + ROI).

-- Chad Brown paced all trainers once again last week (6 wins, 29%, + ROI), but Saffie Joseph Jr. was highly effective with about half the number of starters (4 wins, 36%, + ROI). Mike Maker had a solid week (3 wins, 23%, + ROI), while John Kimmel went 2-for-3 with precision strikes.

-- 4 trainers have won 3 races for 2-year-olds so far this meet: Mark Casse (3-11), Mike Maker (3-9), Saffie Joseph Jr. (3-3), Chad Brown (3-12).

-- Only 14 of 49 winners last week had been away more than 5 weeks (35 days) since their previous start, putting an emphasis on current form as the meet deepens.

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