Key Races
Wednesday | Michael Walsh Stakes (steeplechase); P.G. Johnson Stakes (2yo f turf route)
Thursday | With Anticipation Stakes (2yo turf route)
Friday | Saranac Stakes (3yo turf route)
Saturday | G1 Spinaway (2yo f), G2 Flower Bowl (f/m turf route), G3 Prioress (3yo f sprint)
Sunday | G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (3&up dirt route), Bernard Baruch (3&up turf route)
Monday | G1 Hopeful (2yo dirt sprint), Harvey Pack (turf sprint)
Horsepower
Wednesday | ’23 G1 Kentucky Derby alum Sun Thunder (R2 allowance)
Friday | G1 Irish 2000 Guineas 4th Take Me to Church (R6 G3 Saranac Stakes)
Saturday | G2 Vosburgh runner-up Accretive (R5 allowance); ’23 G1 Spinaway winner Brightwork (R10 G3 Prioress Stakes); G3 Adirondack winner The Queens MG (R11 G1 Spinaway Stakes); ’23 G1 Turf Classic winner War Like Goddess, ’23 G2 Flower Bowl winner Parnac, G2 Glens Falls winner McKulick (R11 G2 Flower Bowl Invitational)
Sunday | G1 Whitney winner Arthur’s Ride, ’23 G1 Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice, ’23 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bright Future (probable G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, field draws Wednesday)
Monday | Dominant debut winner Ferocious (probable G1 Hopeful Stakes, field draws Thursday); G2 Shakertown winner Arzak (probable Harvey Pack Stakes, field draws Thursday)
Extra Incentives
Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar | Saturday final qualifier for Monday’s Final Table
Tracking the Trends
-- Last week was the chalkiest of the meet with 46% winning favorites and two-thirds of them landing in the exacta. This followed a 21%-winning favorites run the prior week.
-- Trainer Chad Brown led the way last week with 7 wins (29%, slight, flat-bet profit ROI).
-- Trainer Mark Casse’s 8: 4-0-0 week produced a $2.50 profit for every $1 bet. He’s now 9-for-25 (36%) with 2-year-olds this Saratoga summer.
-- Jockey Jose Ortiz had perhaps his best week of the meet with a colony-best 7 wins (tied with Flavien Prat). Ortiz won 26% and showed a $1.45 ROI for every $1 bet.
-- Horses who made their last start in Kentucky have won a strong 18% overall at the meet going into closing week, and they’ve been exactly even in terms of ROI. Top barns on this move have been Mike Maker (6 wins, 30%), Al Stall Jr. (4 wins, 67%) and Mark Casse (4 wins, 50%).
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