Race of the Week: Woodbine Oaks | Saturday, July 20, 2024

‍The Lead:
Trainer Kevin Attard (pictured above) seeks a third Woodbine Oaks trophy in the last 4 years and takes no less than 5 shots to get it in this 14-runner lineup. Separating the Attard quintuplets is just one of the handicapping challenges in this 1-1/8 miles test that will be the longest race in any of these fillies' careers to date. We've been up to the challenge of late, scoring $522, $870 and $518 scores in this Race of the Week space in just the last 4 editions.

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​Field Depth:  
Restricted to Canadian-foaled fillies, 6 of the 14 entrants in the main body of the field have won stakes in their careers, notably BA DEE YAH and A LITTLE FRISKY doing so in open company stakes. INUDATION, HURRICANE CLAIR, WAR PAINTER and SHAMANS GIRL own victories in restricted stakes.
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Pace:
Early speed should come from well-drawn LOOKIN TO CONQUER in post 3 and wider-out CAITLINHERGRTNESS.  A deep cast of pace-pressers should insure that this bulky field of 14 keeps an average or above-average tempo with positioning important and turning up some heat. There don't appear to be any major pace advantages.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-INUDATION: First of 5 Kevin Attard chances, Collected filly pulled a 12-1 upset win in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes to close her 2YO season. She's run just once this year, outrun in an common allowance shared by several of these.

#2-HOLIDAY IN JAIL: Catholic Boy filly is 1-4 lifetime with just a maiden/optional claiming score on her resume. Veteran trainer Bobby Tiller puts her in a stakes for the first time, while leaving open company for the first time as well. Pace presence.

#3-LOOKIN TO CONQUER: Pacemaker in her last 2 starts, this Lookin At Lucky filly failed to carry that speed in a common allowance several of these used June 22. Easy pace that day with no excuses and distance and waters deepen now.

#4-KIN'S CONCERTO: Runner-up in common June 22 allowance that shows up often amongst this field, but picks up 8 pounds in weight. Only victory came via disqualification, but she hasn't missed a trifecta in 4 starts for 2-time Oaks-winning trainer Josie Carroll.

#5-HURRICANE CLAIR: Ridden out June 23 in a turf allowance victory by a widening 3-1/4 lengths that looks a bit better on paper than it may be. High-percentage jockey-trainer combo merits respect; well-drawn with a pressing running style and Sahin Civaci looks to ride the Oaks winner for a second straight year. Consider.

#6-VUCCHELLA: 6-race maiden adds depth to the Kevin Attard cast as he bids for a third career Oaks win. Plenty of pedigree for the trip, but has been flat late in all starts and difficult to see that improving over 110 yards farther.

#7-BRAVO KATE: Sid Attard, uncle to Kevin, takes his Woodbine Oaks shot with this 1-for-6 filly who has finished out of the money in the Fury and Princess Elizabeth Stakes. Damside pedigree questionable for the distance.

#8-MY GIRL DELLA: True, 9-furlong pedigree for this Meadgalia d'Oro filly who was overconfidently ridden 4-wide throughout last out when getting no pace help in the June 22 common allowance shared by several of these. Rider change to 4-time Woodbine Oaks winner Patrick Husbands and bullet work since last start make his the most intriguing of the Kevin Attard charges to my eye.

#9-BA DEE YAH: Tom Amoss sends this Uncle Mo filly north of the border to her birthland for the first time in her racing career. She won the LaCombe Memorial at Fair Grounds in March, an off-the-turf affair. Modest pair of turf efforts to start her career, while she's been consistent on dirt since. Sire Uncle Mo's offspring hit an outstanding 22% at Woodbine on Tapeta with a powerful $1.36 return for every $1 bet from more than 150 starters.

#10-CAITLINHERGRTNESS: Visually impressive turf allowance winner 2 weeks ago wheels back quickly, but liked what I saw in her Canadian unveiling for Kevin Attard. The ex-Todd Pletcher trainee broke sharp, came to hand for '22 Oaks-winning rider Raphael Hernandez, and galloped out powerfully. Sire Omaha Beach hasn't had much success on synthetics, but if she transfers her recent form, she's a major player.

#11-WAR PAINTER: Final of the 5 Kevin Attard charges won last year's Victoria Queen on the lawn, but has been equally effective on the Woodbine main track. Beat elder, open-company allowance foes last out and fits very well back with the Canadian-bred sophomores.

#12-A LITTLE FRISKY: Beaten favorite in common allowance prep several of these exit, left with little chance rallying into a terribly slow pace that day. Sprint-on-sprint pedigree brings questions for this distance, despite respect for Woodbine Oaks-winning jockey and trainer in play.

#13-LUNCH WITH BERNIE: Even-running sprinters often are stretch-out threats and this filly fits that bill off an even third in the 7F Fury. Failed in a couple of route tries at 2, but has shown marked improvement since then with more foundation and bred to love the trip for 4-time Woodbine Oaks winner Mark Casse. Tough draw almost assures some ground loss, however.

#14-SHAMANS GIRL: Debut sprint stakes winner has been well-beaten in 3 stakes bid since and will get Lasix for the first time on Saturday. Plenty of pedigree for 9F, but no indication of a major wakeup on horizon.

AE #15-BEAUTIFUL SKY: 4-start maiden would be a devout longshot if she draws in from a tough post.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
No obvious standout here, but WAR PAINTER is 5-for-5 in the trifecta on the Woodbine main, exits a win and has never been beaten more than 1-1/4 lengths on the Tapeta.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
MY GIRL DELLA may not be a huge price, but she'll be more than fair, and I'm solidly in her camp Saturday.​

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win MY GIRL DELLA.

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