$1,000,000 GRADE 1 WOODBINE MILE
The Lead:
It's a turf racing paradise Saturday at Woodbine, where the $1 million Woodbine Mile will be joined for the first time by the $600,000 Canadian International on the same card. The two most prestigious grass races north of the border will be run consecutively in Races 9 and 10.
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Field Depth:
RAGING BULL is the field's lone Grade 1 winner. He's joined by Grade 2 winners AVIE'S FLATTER, OLYMPIC RUNNER, MARCH TO THE ARCH, RIDE A COMET, SET PIECE and DUKE OF HAZZARD. Among the North Americans, RAGING BULL has held the strongest company lines. SPACE TRAVELER has been battling in elite-level international races.
Pace:
Rail-drawn TOWN CRUISE could be loose on the lead like he was in the King James local prep. Those in closest pursuit likely will be CHANGE OF CONTROL and OLYMPIC RUNNER. The pace does not appear to be strong and those in the front of the pack have a legitimate chance to take advantage of the situation for better placings than may appear on paper.
Our Eyes:
RAGING BULL won the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile in April at Keeneland, but followed with losses as the 3-5 and 1-1 favorite in the Poker and Fourstardave. He's only 1 for his last 7 and often well-bet, so it's quite likely he'll be an underlay on the tote to this true win chances. The unique Chad Brown-Frankie Dettori pairing will no doubt produce eyeballs and dollars, again conspiring for an underlay. RAGING BULL was promoted to third in this race in 2019 in a decent effort that suggests he can handle the course.
SET PIECE is a fantastic closer and on his game right now with 3 wins in his last 4 starts. The rider switch from Florent Geroux to Joel Rosario could be a good style fit, but might actually drive the price down a bit lower than it should. He could be an underlay in the simulcast market with Rosario's name drawing attention. The pace does not work in the favor of SET PIECE, but his form must be respected with FOUR 107 BRIS late pace figures in his last 8 starts. That's big stuff to fend off if he gets rolling.
International raiders DUKE OF HAZZARD and SPACE TRAVELLER add intrigue and uncertainty. DUKE OF HAZZARD has lost 12 straight races and has been mostly a Group 3-level performer in England. SPACE TRAVELLER looks to be the classier of the pair, but was 43-1 at Arlington last out in the Mr. D Stakes and managed a fourth-place finish. He's remained stateside since with trainer Brendan Walsh. Second-off-the-plane often invites a regression, so I'll take a pass and make SPACE TRAVELLER beat me.
Two-time Woodbine Mile winner Mark Casse's trio of entrants include OLYMPIC RUNNER, MARCH TO THE ARCH and RIDE A COMET. All have similar resumes, while MARCH TO THE ARCH was runner-up in the 2020 Woodbine Mile in what rates a slightly softer edition of this race compared to Saturday. OLYMPIC RUNNER may have the most tactical speed of the stablemates, which swings the pendulum in his favor in a race that has only TOWN CRUISE as defined early speed. OLYMPIC RUNNER ran down TOWN CRUISE in the recent King Edward over the course and distance in 1:31-3/5, a time about 2 lengths faster than last year's Woodbine Mile was won. That race could be good enough to pull the upset for OLYMPIC RUNNER.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SET PIECE has 8 straight superfecta finishes over 4 different courses and should be reliable to rally from far back for a share.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
OLYMPIC RUNNER won't be a massive price, but he'll offer mid-range odds and has a big win chance.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win OLYMPIC RUNNER. $10 exacta key-box OLYMPIC RUNNER with SET PIECE and RAGING BULL.
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