The Lead:
The Twilight Derby has been a fixture of Breeders' Cup weeks at Santa Anita, but with the championships down the 5 Freeway at Del Mar next week, this Derby gets its own stage. The $200,000 sophomore showcase will be Race 5 on the closing weekend card at the Great Race Place for the autumn meeting. The program also includes the listed Tokyo City Cup.
Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of the Breeders' Cup Bankroll promo for the Twilight Derby. Bet $25 on the race and get $5 in bonus money placed into your account next week just prior to the Breeders' Cup. All intra-race offered wagers apply to the promotion.
Field Depth:
TEST SCORE is a Grade 1 winner and has consistently held the strongest company lines amongst this field. NAMARON is a German Group 3 winner, while listed stakes winner SCIPIO is multiple Grade 3-placed.
Pace:
Rail-drawn SEPTEMBERSIXTYFOUR has yet to go beyond a mile and is the only runner intent on the front in this lineup. A horse sitting second with a first-over run to collar him could get the perfect set-up.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-SEPTEMBERSIXTYNINE: Stakes debut in start 4 for this son of Omaha Beach, whose trainer Mike Puype won the 2008 Twilight Derby with Muny. That Puype predecessor was also making his stakes debut in his fourth start and upset the field at 10-1 odds in wire-to-wire fashion. He, too, had never been extended beyond a mile. With a potential lone speed situation, the question will be how far this gelding can take them and how close history can repeat.
#2-NAMARON: German-bred gelding makes his second US stop after a third-place effort in the Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs. The 1-2 finishers out of that race compete Saturday in Keeneland's Bryan Station Stakes, which is slated for a 4:44 pm ET post time, more than an hour before this race. Perhaps you'll get some additional measure on this export by the results at Keeneland. John Sadler has taken over the training and turns the mount over to Hector Berrios, who won last year's Twilight Derby aboard Atitlan.
#3-SCIPIO: Richie Baltas trainee has won both starts on the Santa Anita lawn, including the Baffle Stakes in February sprinting down the hill. That win sent him on a Kentucky sojourn that included a second in Keeneland's Grade 3 Transylvania before a pair of flat efforts at Churchill in May. He's been on the bench since, but training strongly on the synthetic training track for his return. It took the son of Caravaggio 5 starts to break his maiden and he's never run out of his initial form cycle, so there's no indicator to how he might respond in this first-off-the-layoff situation.
#4-MAAZ: Trainer Michael McCarthy won the 2020 Twilight Derby with his stable star Smooth Like Strait and seeks the first stakes win on the ledger for this French-bred export who debuted in the UK in February. Sonce coming stateside, Maaz finished a troubled fourth in the listed La Jolla at Del Mar. He's 1-for-4 for McCarthy, winning an allowance mile at Santa Anita last out October 3. Ricardo Gonzalez has the return mount on the gelding based near Del Mar at San Luis Rey Downs.
#5-TEST SCORE: Odds-on favorite won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby and has placed in the Grade 1 American Turf and Grade 1 Saratoga Derby. Interesting that trainer Graham Motion adds blinkers as there's nothing on his resume to suggest any under-achieving. Shipped west to run a late-rallying second at Del Mar last year during Breeders' Cup week and should once again handle the trip from his Maryland base. Motion is 7: 3-2-1 with his California shippers this year, winning 2 Grade 2s and a Grade 3 stakes along the way. He went 2-for-2 at Del Mar in stakes this summer teaming with Juan Hernandez, who rides Test Score for the first time. The one to beat without saying.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
TEST SCORE 9-for-10 in the superfecta and clearly the class and most accomplished of this field.
Best Longshot Contender:
SEPTEMBERSIXTYFOUR may get disrespected on the front and if you're going to upset the big favorite, a diverse running style typically is the recipe.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$90 exacta TEST SCORE over SEPTEMBERSIXTYFOUR. $10 exacta SEPTEMBERSIXTYFOUR over TEST SCORE.
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