The Lead:
The 157th edition of the Midsummer Derby rolls out the red carpet Saturday at Saratoga. The guest list includes the 1-2-3 finishers of the Kentucky Derby, the 1-4 finishers of the Preakness, the 1-3 finishers of the Belmont Stakes, the 1-2-4 finishers in the Haskell and the 1-3 finishers in the local Jim Dandy prep. GOLDEN TEMPO looks to seal the 3-year-old championship on the back of his victories in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, a similar path Sovereignty took before floating the Travers canoe in his colors a year ago.
Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to take advantage of the bonus money up for grabs in the $10,000 Trifecta-Thon promotion on Saturday's Saratoga card. The first of 14 races begins at 11:05 am ET.
Field Depth:
A Who’s Who of 3-year-olds are lined up, headed by Grade 1 winners GOLDEN TEMPO, RENEGADE, NAPOLEON SOLO and BABY VINO. EMERGING MARKET is a Grade 2 winner. Seven of the 10 entries are Grade 1-placed.
Pace:
Expect a solid pace for 1-1/4 miles led by NAPOLEON SOLO and LEADING CHANGE and BABY VINO on the engine. SEA STRIKE and SILENT TACTIC could be close to the mix with a significant gap back to a group of sustained closers.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-EMERGING MARKET: Louisiana Derby winner in his second start was the good news, but it launched him into Triple Crown consideration and he’s not been effective since. Thought he looked very good working solo Aug. 22 on video with a big gallop-out and distance always appeared to be his friend. Flavien Prat jumps to ride Chad Brown stablemate Sea Strike and he winds up with Ricardo Santana Jr., a rare pairing for these connections and a speed jockey that may not fit a true closer. Could pass several for a minor share but prefer others.
2-LEADING CHANGE: Unbeaten Indiana Derby winner has the field’s lightest resume with 2 starts. We don’t see that kind of Travers inexperience often, only Uncle Chuck (sixth at 5-2 in 2020 for Bob Baffert) in the past decade-plus. Brad Cox trained ’21 Travers winner Essential Quality, who had a much more complete resume. Picks up 8 pounds while adding 330 yards in additional real estate from the Indiana Derby. Jockey Manny Franco – a Travers winner aboard Tiz the Law 6 summers ago – picks up the mount and is having a personal-best Saratoga season. Part of the pace but would take a Herculean effort to see out the trip with such little foundation.
3-NAPOLEON SOLO: The last Preakness winner to add the Travers was Bernardini in 2006 – and Point Given (2001) is the only other since Damascus in 1967. Whereas the middle jewel in the Triple Crown often rewards spring brilliance, the Travers has been more of a long game. And that’s the chief talking point with Napoleon Solo. Just how far does he want to go? BRIS late pace figures of 90 and 92 in the Preakness and Haskell don’t appear nearly strong enough to carry his speed 10 furlongs against these. Workout video study of his Saratoga moves indicate a horse who hasn’t finished as strong as I’d like despite flashing some eye-catching times. Three-time Travers winner John Velazquez provides good hands in trying to nurture that speed as Paco Lopez jumps to ride Baby Vino.
4-THE PUMA: Raced only once since March, there could be a sense of Grade 1 now-or-never for this colt by 2021 Travers winner Essential Quality. He ran toe-to-toe with many of this division’s better runners in Florida before a series of ailments and setbacks forced him to miss the Triple Crown. Upon his Haskell return July 18, he never made any inroads from off the pace. He’s been asked to gallop-out well beyond his recent workout distances as Gustavo Delgado tries to build a 10-furlong foundation in a colt with 9 furlongs of racing action in 154 days. Javier Castellano’s 7 Travers victories are most all-time and among a 6,000-career victory milestone this week. Can contend for a placing but prefer others on top.
5-RENEGADE: The Jim Dandy winner has wheeled back to win the Travers 4 of the last 5 years. His 123 BRIS late pace figure on the back end of that local prep is one of the highest I’ve ever seen and the visuals absolutely backed up his fantastic finish. The twist? Irad Ortiz Jr. is sidelined with an ankle injury, so Tyler Gaffalione takes the call. He’s compiled 7 stakes victories over the years for Pletcher, 4 of them with Grand Sonata (most recently February’s Mac Diarmida at Gulfstream). While he’s 0-2 at 1-1/4 miles (second Derby, third Belmont), sire Into Mischief brought us Sovereignty here last year. The Pletcher barn has been on point after a rough patch around Belmont and early Saratoga. Expect his A-game and I project him strictly the horse to beat though his morning workouts – as they have been all season long – don’t give any indication of his afternoon prowess.
6-OCELLI: The 70-1 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher keeps punching upward on the class ladder as he seeks his first win in 11 starts. Trainer Whit Beckman and the ownership group remain idealistic that 10 furlongs will bring further bankroll to a colt who has bagged $819K this year without the need of a win photo. I liked what I saw on video of his final Saratoga breeze as he loped early and finished up nicely with a big gallop-out, reminiscent of his running style. The wet track in the Haskell might have had a lot to do with his last-place finish that day, but he still has work to do in order to handle this group. Tyler Gaffalione jumps saddles to Renegade and Edgard Zayas picks up the mount.
7-SEA STRIKE: The dominant Curlin Stakes winner over this track August 2 gets the biggest test of his career Saturday and couldn’t be training any better. Absolutely loved what I saw on multiple workout videos just dragging the rider along and galloping out like a beast, earning multiple ‘wows’ along the way. There’s nothing here on pedigree to suggest 10 furlongs and with only 3 career starts it’s a foundation that could leave him needing more gas late. Even brilliant 2016 winner Arrogate had an additional start with 4 Travers priors – so he’ll need to be that kind of animal. But this one’s talent is apparent if he can muster the stamina and fortitude to dispatch rivals and fend off the proven closers over the distance. Trainer Chad Brown is 19: 0-0-3 in the Travers and has not had any luck with established horses or upstarts like this in the past. Big threat but might be an underlay price at anything less than 6-1.
8-BABY VINO: The Haskell winner has notched 3 straight, the longest active streak of any of this year’s Travers entrants. His 28-1 victory in Monmouth’s biggest race was a knockdown fight with Preakness winner Napoleon Solo in which he benefitted from a heady rail ride. The Linday Schultz trainee now picks up 7 pounds and tries 10 furlongs for the first time after a career-best 95 BRIS late pace figure. Paco Lopez, who rode him in the Pegasus Stakes win and battled him on Napoleon Solo in the Haskell, takes the mount back and departs his seat on the Preakness winner. Big half-mile work in :47 on Monday at Saratoga where he eased into it effortlessly but didn’t gallop out with big promise. Expect a pressing trip and this one projects to get a potential no lead, no pass journey in the Travers and note no Haskell alum has won the Travers since Keen Ice in 2015 and no horse has swept both since the great Point Given in 2001.
9-GOLDEN TEMPO: Bout with an illness kept the Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner from accruing his Travers prep in the Jim Dandy. Now he’ll try to connect the 12-week dots off works alone. Archangelo did that in 2023, but he was the only since Birdstone in 2004. It’s a road literally less traveled, frankly because the Travers is 1-1/4 miles. But that 10-furlong trip has been the great equalizer over the years and Golden Tempo clearly relishes it. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has been consistently working Golden Tempo inside of a workmate to get a little more out of his breezes in terms of competition, but he’s never been let out of a gallop despite a couple of fleet 47s on the clock. Six works all at a half-mile suffice for the training of a horse who obviously was super-fit with a December-June form cycle that featured 6 races in 5-1/2 months. Jose Ortiz is in the midst of a record-breaking Saratoga summer season and it would be no surprise if Golden Tempo passes them all to win and follow Sovereignty’s Derby-Belmont-Travers sweep from a year ago, the first to do so since Thunder Gulch in 1995.
10-SILENT TACTIC: Flat late in his last 2 matchups with Renegade in the Arkansas Derby and his Jim Dandy return in August, it’s difficult to project this one outkicking that rival over 10 furlongs in the Travers. And if you watched him struggle in his workout with the solid stakes mare Nerazurri at the Spa on August 19, it’s a case that’s very hard to make. Two-time Travers winner Luis Saez is back aboard this $1.1 million earner who has never missed the board in 7 starts and only 1 exacta misfire. But this is his toughest test yet and I don’t like how he’s coming into the race for the difficulty of the task.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
RENEGADE is 8-8 in the money lifetime and exits an impressive rally in the key Travers prep while checking most all boxes.
Best Longshot Contender:
The logical players will be difficult to unseat from the exacta, but THE PUMA at 8-1 morning line could add mild spice to the bottom of trifectas and superfectas. He’s co-fourth choice so it’s not a big reach.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 trifecta RENEGADE over GOLDEN TEMPO over SEA STRIKE. $30 trifecta RENEGADE over SEA STRIKE over GOLDEN TEMPO. $10 trifecta part-wheel RENEGADE with GOLDEN TEMPO, SEA STRIKE with THE PUMA ($20).
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