The Lead:
Laurel Park hosts its Harvest Stakes Festival this Saturday with a special first post of 11:45 am ET. The 10-race program includes 2-year-olds in the Smart Halo and James F. Lewis III Stakes, both for a purse of $100,000. Older fillies and mares anchor the consecutive stakes offerings in Race 9 with the $100,000 Thirty Eight Go Go. The 1-1/16 miles dirt test is named after the star local mare who won stakes races in 1987, 1988, 1989 and 1990.
Field Depth:
The field of 8 includes a trio of existing stakes winners, including MALIBU BEAUTY, BREVIARY and HYBRID ECLIPSE. The latter is Grade 2-placed, while the lineup also includes Grade 3-placed BEGUINE. Kentucky (BERATE) and New York (BABY MAN) raiders step up from the allowance ranks and offer a strong supporting cast. Overall, HYBRID ECLIPSE has kept the strongest company lines in stakes company.
Pace:
Rail speed MALIBU BEAUTY should be joined up front by the likes of BEGUINE and BABY MAN with CHAMPAGNE TOAST, CLICK TO CONFIRM and HYBRID ECLIPSE in the pressing roles. This looks to be a solid to fast pace that could give a closer a chance to shine late.
Our Eyes:
Posts 1-3 account for 50% of the 1-1/16 miles dirt wins at Laurel over the past 5 years, pertinent with such a short run to the first turn over the 9-furlong oval. MALIBU BEAUTY from the rail was runner-up last out in the Maryland Million Distaff, but faces tougher foes in open company Saturday. She's best when loose on the lead (and perhaps at Delaware Park), and that's not likely against this group. Late-running BREVIARY will appreciate the move back to a route distance, but is suspect on class overall. BERATE for trainer Shug McGaughey is the well-drawn closer to watch out of the advantaged, inside posts. She's never run at Laurel, so note sire Blame gets 14% winners locally the past 5 years, a respectable number.
The remaining 5-pack all features some semblance of early speed. They include locals CHAMPAGNE TOAST, CLICK TO CONFIRM and HYBRID ECLIPSE. It was CLICK TO CONFIRM best in a head-to-head with CHAMPAGNE TOAST over this same trip in an April allowance. Both are in similar current form, but would be upsetters in this spot. HYBRID ECLIPSE rates the best chance in this group as she returns to a Laurel main track in which she's 3-4 lifetime and a nose away from perfection. She was an unthreatening third of 5 in the Grade 2 Beldame behind Nest last time in New York, and give her a mulligan for a bullring disappointment at the Timonium State Fair. She might be slightly better at a 1-turn mile than this trip, and post 8 will be a real challenge into the clubhouse turn.
BEGUINE and BABY MAN are interesting returnees to the Maryland scene. BEGUINE set the pace and folded in this year's Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico. Just the second offspring of Gun Runner to compete at Laurel, she will be matched up with Laurel's top pilot at this tricky-to-ride distance, Jevian Toledo. She showed her quality at Oaklawn this spring when a neck runner-up in the Grade 3 Fantasy. BABY MAN appears to be a need-the-lead type and will have to hustle from the 7-hole. She was second in a Laurel allowance in June and brings a two-race win streak from Monmouth and Aqueduct. Her trainer Rudy Rodriguez boasts a 12: 4-2-1 record with his Laurel shippers at this distance over the past 5 years.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
HYBRID ECLIPSE, despite a bad post, gets the call here based on the nearly perfect Laurel record in 4 starts, but there's no absolute stand-out in this category.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
BREVIARY can pass some tired horses for a share over a track and distance in which she's had some success.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win BERATE.
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