The Lead:
Inaugurated 101 years ago, the West Virginia Derby returns Sunday as the signature race at Mountaineer. A 9-race twilight card gets underway at 5 pm ET and co-features the Grade 3 $200,000 Governor's Stakes in Race 7. The 1-1/8 miles West Virginia Derby goes as Race 8 and includes alumni of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
Field Depth:
AGATE ROAD, SOCIETY MAN and DRAGOON GUARD are the existing graded stakes winners in the lineup. NEXT LEVEL is Grade 1-placed. HENRO is a listed stakes winner. SOCIETY MAN and MUGATU have kept the strongest strengths of schedule since spring.
Pace:
Rail-drawn BAXLEY should set the tempo exiting sprints, while DRAGOON GUARD should be right with him from post 3. No other runners appear set on the front, except perhaps McQUEEN if hustled, so the pace should be moderate at most.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-BAXLEY: Book-end sprint wins in his first and most recent starts among 4 career tries, top Chicago trainer Larry Rivelli will see how far this one can take them. Son of Klimt has yet to race beyond 6 furlongs or in stakes company. Half-brother to Price Discipline, who won a Saratoga 1-1/8 miles allowance during the '22 summer meet.
#2-DIMATIC: Gun Runner colt didn't earn Triple Crown stripes on the Oaklawn trail this spring, but trainer Steve Asmussen managed him well for minor checks in the Texas and Iowa Derbies. Asmussen has won the West Virginia Derby a record 6 times, including Red Route One a year ago. Cristian Torres teamed to ride that one and returns.
#3-DRAGOON GUARD: Wire-to-wire Grade 3 Indiana Derby winner is drawn perfect just outside the only other speed in the race, Baxley, and should have no excuses from a trip standpoint. Drew clear late in Indy from Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold in what was a very promising performance. Well-bred Arrogate-Filimbi home-bred for Juddmonte arguably could be a Travers-Pennsylvania Derby type at the Grade 1 level. If so, he should pass this test.
#4-NEXT LEVEL: After finishing third as a maiden in last year's Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, this Vino Rosso colt hasn't been able to put anything together of significance. He's 1-for-12 and you can make a strong case the 3 best races of his career were with Lasix, which will at least be back in play Sunday. Distance won't be an issue for this Keith Desormeaux trainee.
#5-MUGATU: Preakness last-place finisher carries a 9-race losing streak and is 1-for-14 lifetime. He's cross-entered Sunday at Laurel in the $100,000 Bald Eagle Derby on turf and that may be the better spot considering his dirt form overall.
#6-AGATE ROAD: Classy $650,000 son of Quality Road for Todd Pletcher was a strong grass juvenile and given every chance this year to be a dirt performer on the Triple Crown trail. Runner-up in the Sam F. Davis on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, he didn't deliver much in a tougher Louisiana Derby spot and was sent back to grass. Recent form at Churchill on grass hasn't inspired, but he'll get Lasix for the first time in 10 starts. Pletcher won the 2015 West Virginia Derby with Madefromlucky.
#7-McQUEEN: Least-experienced member of the field has made just 3 starts, breaking his maiden at Hawthorne June 29 in his only outing of 2024. Son of Gun Runner was part of the Todd Pletcher stable in 2 juvenile appearances, but now competes for trainer Manny Perez. Jockey Charlie Oliveros, third in the current local meet standings, takes the mount on the potential pace player.
#8-SOCIETY MAN: Trainer Danny Gargan has Belmont Stakes and Haskell winner Dornoch at the top of the current 3YO crop, and this Good Magic gelding has developed into a solid Plan B. Runner-up in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial was a well-beaten 16th in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, but since bounced back to win Churchill Downs' Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes over WV Derby return rival Next Level et al. Expect Corey Lanerie to try and save ground early and make a late move.
#9-HENRO: Son of Collected extended from a long series of sprints to win the 1-1/16 miles Iowa Derby last out at Prairie Meadows. He'll try to add another 110 yards to the length while in outstanding form. Trainer Chris Hartman has found a good fit with jockey Rafael Bejarano, going 3: 2-1-0 in tandem with Henro. Expected to get a mid-pack trip and get first run on the closers, though ground loss will be some concern from his post.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
DRAGOON GUARD is well-drawn in what looks a favorable race shape.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
BAXLEY would be unlikely to wire the field, but a plausible runner to hold for a superfecta spot at a price.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 exacta DRAGOON GUARD over DIMATIC. $25 exacta part-wheel DRAGOON GUARD over SOCIETY MAN and HENRO ($50).
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