The Lead:
Breeders' Cup Saturday at Santa Anita begins with a pair of stakes races as preludes to the championship events. For full Breeders' Cup race coverage, be sure to check out the 1/ST Breeders' Cup Wager Guide for expert analysis, trends, videos and more. We'll focus this space on getting you off to a fast start in Race 2, the $250,000 Grade 2 Twilight Derby at 1-1/8 miles on turf.
Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special on all Santa Anita races Friday and Saturday if their win bets finish second or third.
Field Depth:
Multiple graded stakes winners, including five Grade 1-placed performers, are among the cast of 13. The most consistent top-end company lines come from SILVER KNOTT, REINCARNATE and WEBSLINGER, who may hold the class edge.
Pace:
REINCARNATE (pictured above) could be controlling speed here if asserted, while MONDEGO and SILVER KNOTT will likely be used from wide draws early to get position into the clubhouse turn and could press the pace. This looks like a very comfortable tempo for those near the front.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-REQUIST: Outrun in the Del Mar Derby vs. similar and this appears an even tougher spot with new faces. Should chase pace from inside early.
2-BE YOUR BEST: Well-traveled from New York, Kentucky and California, her Del Mar Oaks second shows she can handle the trip. But she'll be taking on boys and has lost 7 in a row.
3-REINCARNATE: Sham and Los Al Derby winner on dirt tested the best of his generation with mixed results and now resumes turf racing for the first time since a pair of maiden miles last September and October. Tactical speed and class make a potent combination and aggressive-early jockey Luis Saez isn't one to give away a pace edge.
4-PACKS A WAHLOP: Stark drop-off from ages 2 to 3 without any foretelling of an improvement after two poor turf sprints.
5-PANIC ALARM: Close-up finishes in the La Jolla and Del Mar Derby this summer put this UK export squarely in the mix and attracts legendary pilot Frankie Dettori. Factors late with his rally.
6-WEBSLINGER: Late-running Kentucky/New York performer drops out of a pair of Grade 1 efforts and hasn't missed a superfecta since last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Consistent sort might not get the fastest pace set-up here, which makes the task a bit more difficult for capable runner.
7-SEAL TEAM: Impeccably bred, but lightly raced colt has won 2 of 4 starts and makes the step up in class after a win over this turf and distance.
8-ALMENDARES: UK export has been consistent on two continents and missed by only a length when a rallying third in the Del Mar Derby. Fits well with these, but modest early pace makes his job more difficult.
9-CALIFORNIA BAY: Longshot Cal-bred has a deep-closing style and will be one of the biggest prices in the field.
10-MALTESE FALCON: Del Mar Derby runner-up was surprisingly flat in a local allowance over this trip behind Twilight Derby re-matched rival Seal Team. Local ace pilot Juan Hernandez sticks aboard gelding who hasn't missed a superfecta in 9 tries.
11-MONDEGO: Eastern raider was third in the Belmont Derby and fourth in the Virginia Derby for always-reputable Christophe Clement barn. Has won on the lead and from a stalking spot, so he should be able to work out a decent trip under Joel Rosario, who piloted him to both career victories.
12-SILVER KNOTT: A neck from Breeders' Cup glory last year at Keeneland when runner-up in the Juvenile Turf as the favorite, he returns on Cup Day with a softer landing spot. It's been a disappointing campaign as a sophomore, losing all 4, including a trio of shots in the US. Connections and name familiarity could provide an underlay price from a tough post, but his form is comparable with most of these.
13-WATSONVILLE: Son of miler Jack Milton stretches out off back-to-back Del Mar wins at a mile and a mile and one-sixteenth. This will be his stakes debut and he'll have to overcome a wide draw with a running style of mid-pack that could force ground loss.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
WEBSLINGER is 10-for-11 in the superfecta and will be running late for a share.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
MONDEGO's 10-1 morning line price and early running style appeal in a race that shouldn't be too fast the first half.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$20 win REINCARNATE. $10 exacta key-box REINCARNATE with PANIC ALARM, WEBSLINGER, ALMENDARES and MONDEGO ($80).
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