The Lead:
Churchill Downs hosts its Stephen Foster Preview Day card with 7 stakes races crammed into an 11-race lineup. The Blame Stakes will feature Stephen Foster prospects awaiting next month's potential clash of titans on June 17 and be part of a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Late Pick 4 Hit & Split promo. Meanwhile, the Race 7 Mint Julep caught my eye as the most attractive race of the stakes menu Saturday. The 1-1/16 miles turf test brings together a cast of 9 distaffers, including last year's 1-2 finishers PIN UP BETTY and CHARLENE'S DREAM.
Field Depth:
CHARLENE'S DREAM has won at the Grade 2 level, while Grade 3 winners here include PIN UP BETTY and MEDORO, the latter Grade 1-placed. Stakes winners include PROCTOR STREET (who is Grade 2-placed) and STYLISH SUE. That group is very well matched on class while the others will need to raise their games.
Pace:
CHARLENE'S DREAM has rail speed while STYLISH SUE on the far outside also has early interest. It doesn't look like a fast pace, but speed in the extreme posts can often turn up the tempo more than expected. A runner capable of staying in touch early in a midflight position could get a good trip in this race shape.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-CHARLENE'S DREAM: Nearly wired this cast a year ago at 7-1 odds and stands a chance on the return. I like the sprint-to-route move second start of the form cycle like this, and note her last 2 times going sprint-to-route produced wins in 2023 and 2024. Disappointed me in the Giant's Causeway when I picked her, thinking she'd do more fresh in that turf sprint. Expect Florent Geroux to put her on the lead.
2-FAVORITE MEMORY: British export makes first start for Cherie DeVaux while coming off a November layoff. Modest overseas form with a long series of Keeneland workouts for this. Drawn well under John Velazquez and might fit, but don't have enough feel for this one.
3-PIN UP BETTY: Churchill turf horse-for-course is 4-8 on the surface and defending champ in the Mint Julep (compared to 0-14 in all other setttings/surfaces). Decent efforts in the Jenny Wiley and Distaff Turf Mile in her last 2 starts and now gets money rider Flavien Prat for Mike Maker. Legitimate contender should be finishing from the back half of the field.
4-MEDORO (pictured): West coast transplant has shifted game successfully to midwest, holding form at Fair Grounds and Keeneland. Grade 1 Jenny Wiley wasn't up to its usual quality this year, so that third-place effort might get slightly overbet Saturday. Appreciate the consistency and another with a big chance under Jose Ortiz.
5-PROCTOR STREET: Rated the Modesty, despite being a Grade 3, a tougher field than the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, so her recent third over this course may be better than it looks. She's relished 1-1/16 miles (4-6 lifetime) and simply ran out of steam in her last 2 over 1-1/8 miles. Times up the move better this time at a shorter trip with designated targets in front under Tyler Gaffalione. Her 104 BRIS late pace figure last time zips her past them late if near-repeated.
6-VINA ARANA: Irish export has won 2 of 6 since coming stateside to Jack Sisterson, but has not been a threat in either stakes bid to date. Some excuses last time in the Distaff Turf Mile, but that was over her best trip and this one extends her. Prefer others.
7-IN THE STARS: Regally bred Into Mischief-Stellar Wind filly posted a '26 return victory at Keeneland in allowance company and should be poised for the stakes re-rise. Graded-stakes win would do wonders for her value in the breeding shed, though she's done her best turf work on other courses than this one and has run poorly twice without Lasix.
8-SWEET TREASURE: Impressive Keeneland allowance winner while getting zero pace help and doing so from post 11 of 11 on April 15. The Brad Cox trainee couldn't match up with Medoro twice at Fair Grounds this winter but has been strong on the Kentucky lawn. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return mount on a live threat on a class rise.
9-STYLISH SUE: Expected to prompt the pace from the outside and should appreciate the cutback in trip from the 1-1/8 miles Modesty. Joe Sharp trainee has been a need-the-lead type over the years and benefits if Charlene's Dream is not aggressively ridden from the rail. Not impossible to hold for a share, but her last 4 losses have seen her finish off the board -- so might be an all-or-nothing candidate.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
PROCTOR STREET has been outstanding at 1-1/16 miles (5-6 in the exacta) and hasn't missed the trifecta in 3 local starts on the CD lawn.
Best Longshot Contender:
CHARLENE'S DREAM at 12-1 morning line has been on the board in this race before and the pace scenario doesn't look brutal for her front-end style.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win PROCTOR STREET. $10 exacta part-wheel PROCTOR STREET over PIN UP BETTY and CHARLENE'S DREAM ($20).
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