Race of the Week: Saturday's Lake George at Saratoga

‍The Lead:
Triple Crown series superstar Sovereignty headlines the marquee Saturday at Saratoga in the Jim Dandy Stakes, local prep to the Travers next month. That 5-horse affair includes Baeza and Sandman in challenge of the heavy favorite, while the undercard's Grade 3 $175,000 Lake George Stakes (Race 9) immediately precedes and will be a fantastic betting race. The Lake George re-matches the top 3 finishers from the Wild Applause Stakes over a mile at Saratoga on July 3, extending the trip an extra half-furlong.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the Bet $200, Get $20 promotion each racing day this week when you bet $100 for both Saratoga and Del Mar the same day.

​Field Depth:
Listed stakes winners CLASSIC Q and PLAY WITH FIRE are the only stakes winners in the field to this point, while DAISY FLYER is the only graded stakes-placed filly entered. There's no wide edge here in terms of strength of schedule, though ATERRADORA arguably comes out of the best series of races.
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Pace:
CLASSIC Q wired the Wild Applause and is the most likely pacemaker again in a race without much early tempo. LAVENDER DISASTER, PRINCESS ATTITUDE and GOOD LONG CRY are expected to press the leader.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-REINING FLOWERS: Even effort behind odds-on favorite in Penn Mile when short field and slow pace didn't help her cause. Saves all the ground here under 4-time Lake George winner John Velazquez and note her best performances came over this turf course here in 2024.

#2-PRETTY LAVISH: Recent runner-up of Pimlico's Hilltop and Monmouth's Boiling Springs, she could give trainer Graham Motion a fourth win in the Lake George. He most notably won this race in 2003 with the fantastic Film Maker. Rallied a length shy of return rival Play With Fire in the Pimlico start and may not get a great pace set-up here. Still, excellent draw and she's on par with these.

#3-DAISY FLYER: Rusty Arnold trainee hasn't run since a Grade 3 Herecomesthebridge narrow third in March, her only start of 2025. She was inconsistent at age 2 and the daughter of Mshawish remains a question mark until she puts more on her form after that 87-1 placing more than 4 months ago. Arnold won this race in 2012 with Center Court.

#4-LAVENDER DISASTER: Chad Brown's streak of 5 straight Lake George victories came to a halt last year, but this is 1 of 2 chances he has to notch a record-padding eighth win overall in this race. Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. have teamed for 3 of those victories and they've consistenly paired with this Into Mischief filly in all 4 career starts. Flat late in the Wild Applause, the additional ground may not work in her favor, though she did beat maidens over the trip last September.

#5-CLASSIC Q (pictured): Trainer Mark Casse had Chad Brown's Lake George number last year with Pounce and aims for back-to-back scores in this race. Classic Q led every jump of the Wild Applause as the 8-5 favorite and will be well-backed again under Jose Ortiz. The two worst results of her career were her only 2 starts beyond a mile in distance, so the concern is staying the trip.

#6-PRINCESS ATTITUDE: Drawn just outside Classic Q, this could be the key to the pace if Junior Alvarado decides to apply serious pressure. Frankel filly is just 1-for-7 but wasn't far off a couple of these when third in the Hilltop at Pimlico. She's never missed a superfecta, but it's the final yards that seem to get the best of her in terms of distance. Could be a no lead, no pass candidate.

#7-POOKIE: Dylan Davis piloted Pounce to victory in last year's Lake George and returns to his regular seat aboard this War Front filly for Tom Morley. Pookie was an even third in her only start since November, but did run similarly in her debut off of works and improve second out to post her only win in 4 career starts. Lacks early speed in a race without a lot of tempo help, but trending toward an improved effort.

#8-ALTERRADORA: Kentucky-based filly rallied to be second at Keeneland in allowance company before a pair of fourth-place Churchill efforts in the Grade 2 Edgewood and Grade 3 Regret. Those races were won by Nitrogen and Fionn, who would be solidly favored in this spot, so it's a reasonable assertion that she's dropping in class. She hasn't missed a superfecta in 7 starts and this barn won the 2013 Lake George with Kitten's Dumplings. May have to be closer to the pace than recent tries to be most effective in this scenario.

#9-GOOD LONG CRY: George Weaver trainee is 3: 0-0-1 in stakes bids and steps up in class off of synthetic and muddy main track efforts. Her best races have been close to the pace and look for jockey Luis Saez to use her early from a wide draw to gain some position. Don't see a race on her form yet that beats the best ones here.

#10-PLAY WITH FIRE: Chad Brown's dominance in this race was mentioned with barnmate Lavender Disaster. This one feels the strongest chance for his re-assertion in the Lake George as her BRIS late pace figure of 88 was 6 points better in the Wild Applause than both of her return rivals -- meaning the extra distance swings to her favor. Her 101 BRIS late pace figure in the Hilltop Stakes win at Pimlico is easily best of any runner in this field this year. The one to fear late under Manny Franco, which may help the price in the absence of Flavien Prat.

#11-KAY CUP (MTO): NY-bred exits a sprint stakes score and goes for the same Jorge Abreu barn whose filly Scottish Lassie ran a hole in the wind here in last week's Grade 1 CCA Oaks. Obvious front-end threat if race rained onto the main track.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
PLAY WITH FIRE is the race's strongest finisher and is 6-for-6 in the superfecta for a trainer that has dominated this race historically.

Best Longshot Contender:
REINING FLOWERS is third off the layoff in her form cycle, which produced a win over this turf course last summer. Her career-best BRIS late pace figure (101) came on this course in the P.G. Johnson last year as well.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta PLAY WITH FIRE over REINING FLOWERS. $30 exacta PLAY WITH FIRE over ALTERRADORA. $10 exacta part-wheel REINING FLOWERS, ALTERRADORA over PLAY WITH FIRE ($20). $10 daily double REINING FLOWERS to SOVEREIGNTY in the Jim Dandy.

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