The Lead:
I had the honor of being trackside and working the inaugural Kentucky Cup in 1994, watching Tabasco Cat and Best Pal kick off a race that's become one of Turfway's fixtures. It was a September dirt race then, but it's recent history of a spring synthetic showcase is more important than my nostalgia. The 1-1/8 miles race for older horses will be Race 10 on Saturday's Jeff Ruby Day card that welcomes Kentucky Derby and Oaks prospects. Note a special matinee first post of 12:45 pm ET for the 13-race lineup.
Horseplayers be sure to take part in the $3,000 Exacta-Thon promotion matching the cards at Turfway and Fair Grounds for its Louisiana Derby Day on Saturday.
Field Depth:
Grade 2 winners HONOR MARIE and UTAH BEACH are joined by Grade 3 winners ENDLESSLY and MERCANTE, the latter pair having won 2 of Turfway's signature races. WILLY D'S is Grade 2-placed on dirt. Those 5 runners have kept similarly strong company lines over time. Toppling all 5 of them on the class rise will be a challenge, so demand a price if trying to get outside those names.
Pace:
TICKLED QUIST certainly will have early intent from a good post draw in the 4-hole. WILLY D'S has shown dirt pace presence and can be expected in the mix from the opening jump if he takes to synthetic. MERCANTE's best races have been near the tempo and may be hustled from an outside post, but is not guaranteed to show that zip after losing all his tempo in back-to-back fall starts and benched since. There's some coinflip here that TICKLED QUIST can be counted on early, but the others are far less certain.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-HONOR MARIE: Tremendous wake-up in the Dust Commander Stakes Feb. 14, so much so that jockey Joseph Ramos – who won this race last year aboard Mercante – opts to ride this one instead. Don’t forget he won the Kentucky Jockey Club on dirt at age 2 and there’s always been talent in the tank. His complete lack of any early speed requires a lot to go right to win, hence he’s never won back-to-back in 15 starts. But, his last race looks so very dangerous if repeated.
#2-UTAH BEACH: October layoff returnee moves barns from the retired Nacho Correas to Brendan Walsh. Fired only an even try off a similar break during the 2024 season and Walsh’s numbers following this type of break are nearly identical to his overall win rate. No-match fourth to Mercante in this race last year and might be a work and race short of his best.
#3-NAPTOWN: Longshot bottomed the superfecta in the Prairie Bayou and gets to save some ground Saturday after drawing widest in that one. Laurel-based gelding has been nibbling around the exotics in 5 straight at 5 different venues and that might be his best outcome Saturday.
#4-TICKLED QUIST: Wired back-to-back allowance races to start 2026 at Turfway, no surprise for a son of Nyquist to have success over this surface. Brad Cox trainee figures to be set on the lead while drawn inside his principal pace rival next door. There’s no guarantee that Willy D’s will take to the new footing and even force the tempo, so there’s a chance he gets loose and comfortable. His best races have come with the benefit of the slowest tempos, so the first half-mile pace will be critical to his chances late.
#5-WILLY D’S: Yet another Mike Maker $50,000 claim to go on to stakes success after the transfer. He’s been in classy company of late and fits on talent and distance. Surface will be the question for this potential pace player. He’s run 23 of 25 starts on dirt, but did win 1 of 2 on turf. Sire Lookin At Lucky wins a modest 10% with his offspring on the Turfway Tapeta. Maker is a 3-time Kentucky Cup Classic-winning trainer (2009, 2018, 2022) and tied with Bob Baffert for the most wins all-time in this race. Jockey John Velazquez has won this race on dirt (’04) and synthetic (’23).
#6-TAPIT SHOES: Eighth in this race last year, but has had a bit more break this winter coming into the race that could benefit him. Off all of January, he returned Feb. 27 with an allowance mile score that earned a whopping 105 BRIS late pace figure. Perfect prep. The kicker could be Lasix, however, as nearly all of his best efforts have come with the medication that can be used Saturday in stakes company. Demand some price, but there’s intrigue if it’s not the Lasix.
#7-ENDLESSLY: The 2024 Jeff Ruby winner returns from his Santa Anita home base for the first time in 2 years looking to regain glory. He’s lost 8 straight since then, all on turf, from New York to California at the higher levels of racing. Trainer Michael McCarthy’s Oscar Performance horse will need the pace to come back and should appreciate the 9-furlong trip as his most effective. Stablemate Stark Contrast is favored in the Jeff Ruby under Kazushi Kimura, who could be set for a big day.
#8-WADSWORTH: Public loves this Brad Cox trainee, favored in 6 of his last 9 starts and 5-2 or less in 7 straight. With Irad Ortiz Jr. in town to ride Fulleffort for Cox in the Jeff Ruby, this one’s going to attract a ton of attention from the national simulcast audience on connections alone. That likely leads to an underlay price on a runner who finished fourth in both local stakes attempts. After missing all of 2025, his Feb. 27 return race was a good allowance prep at a mile, but it’s an identical form cycle to his Prairie Bayou fourth at 7-5 odds in a previous go at this spot in the ledger.
#9-MERCANTE (pictured): Nun the Less (2019-2020) is the only horse to win back-to-back editions of this race. Though he’s 3-for-4 at Turfway, regular rider Joseph Ramos hops seats to pilot Honor Marie on Saturday as Wilson Rodriguez picks up the mount. The 6-year-old Gun Runner gelding hasn’t raced since November and has run decent thirds and fourths off similar past layoffs. High-percentage trainer Brian Knippenberg doesn’t have a bit outfit, so you know it was critical for him to this one to this lucrative race. Think a prep may have benefitted, but Mercante missed 3 weeks on the workout tab in Jan-Feb that might explain the lack of a tuneup.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
HONOR MARIE will be coming with a run and could get all of it with the right set-up, and at least part of it even if not.
Best Longshot Contender:
TAPIT SHOES at 8-1 morning line has a really good pattern for this race in his development and should be at least this price or more.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 exacta key-box HONOR MARIE with TAPIT SHOES and TICKLED QUIST ($100).
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