The Lead:
Keeneland's final Saturday of the Spring Meet, which concludes a week from Friday, co-features the Grade 2 Elkhorn and the Grade 3 Ben Ali. They go back-to-back in Races 9-10, the Elkhorn the latter of the pair and a fantastic betting race. This Spring Meet stakes has averaged an 8-1 winner over the past 18 years with favorites losing 7 straight and just succeeding 3-18 during that time. The 13-runner field includes a defending champion, a Sycamore winner, a Lexington winner and a Blue Grass winner, spanning Keeneland's stakes gamut.
Field Depth:
BURNHAM SQUARE is a Grade 1 winner on dirt. Grade 2 turf winners include DESVIO, UTAH BEACH, GRAND SONATA, TRULY QUALITY, while TAWNY PORT is Grade 1-placed and ANEGADA is Grade 2-placed. Any among these are of similar class and difficult to separate on strength of schedule.
Pace:
PRESIDER, NAVY SEAL and FREEDOM'S WAY likely vie for what should be a modest pace. These turf marathons at Keeneland typically end up a finisher's game regardless of the pace, so don't be afraid of a closer.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-PADIDDLE: Late-running marathoner has been competitive in Gulfstream’s distance series, but has failed to win in his last 10. Not without some races on the ledger that could impact the exotics. Jose Morelos comes north to ride for Elizabeth Dobles.
#2-DESVIO (pictured): 34-1 Sycamore Stakes stunner over this course and trip during the Fall Meet, this seems like a very aggressive placement for Maryland-based Madison Meyers. They run the Henry Clark at Laurel on Saturday, a race they used to prep for the Preakness-day Dinner Party. Confident to take this return Keeneland trip with those races in the back yard. Beware under John Velazquez again.
#3-UTAH BEACH: Defending Elkhorn champ was 11-1 last year and the form held up one more start before starting to slip. Upon retirement of trainer Ignacio Correas, Brendan Walsh took over this winter and nothing went right in the Kentucky Cup Classic in March’s return on synthetic. Admire the Keeneland record but going to make this one beat me in the title defense.
#4-GRAND SONATA: Steady on turf and sometimes that’s good enough to win, but there are few remarkable performances. Won’t embarrass himself, but beaten 3-3/4 lengths in this last year and should be somewhere in the hunt looking for breaks. Prefer a few others.
#5-FLEETFOOT: Bouncing around between the flats and jumps, he returns from a November layoff in the Red Smith at Aqueduct that puts him on the fringe discussion off that fourth-place finish. Doesn’t have a lot of layoff experience, but his one bid was poor, so he’ll have to prove it.
#6-BURNHAM SQUARE: The 2025 Blue Grass winner makes a plot twist in his Keeneland return, converted to turf late in his sophomore season. Has plenty of grass on the damside of the pedigree, and his Nashville Derby narrow second and Gulfstream return allowance runner-up on Feb. 28 are encouraging for the surface. Expect Brian Hernandez Jr. to save ground on the 3 turns.
#7-TRULY QUALITY: Back-to-back winner of Del Mar’s Hollywood Turf Cup over this 12-furlong trip, he returns to Keeneland for the first time in 2 years. Firmer conditions the better as he’s become a top-of-ground specialist. Jonathon Thomas adds blinkers back on after 4 starts without them, a move that’s 1-for-13 for the barn. Luan Machado takes the mount for the first time.
#8-TAWNY PORT: 7-year-old multi-millionaire returns from an overmatched appearance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s lost 16 straight going back to the Saratoga 2024 summer and hasn’t factored in 2 local appearance during the Fall Meet’s Sycamore. Pass on Miguel Clement trainee for now.
#9-NAVY SEAL: Wesley Ward 5-year-old hasn’t faced elder stakes horses in his career and picks a tough spot for his first start since November. Distance no issue based on pedigree and past performances, but class hurdle here is legitimately high.
#10-PRESIDER: Speedster nearly wired the Connally Turf at Sam Houston over this trip 2 starts back and all of his best work has come on the front end. Joe Sharp trainee has run 2 of his worst races over the Keeneland course, so even if he isn’t challenged, there’s no assurance he’ll benefit from the pace.
#11-FREEDOM’S WAY: Career allowance-type takes a class rise off a July layoff curiously for Eddie Kenneally. Should be part of the early, pressing flight and will have to be used early by Luis Saez as that first turn comes up quickly over this alignment. Hard to see this 7-year-old with 3 wins adding a fourth vs. this group.
#12-ANEGADA: Mike Maker once dominated races like this in Kentucky, winning the Elkhorn in 2013, 2016 and 2019. With a good trip under Flavien Prat, there’s no reason this 4-year-old can’t add to that. With speed just to his inside 2 spots in the gate, that could help open up some early real estate to avoid excessive ground loss. This one continues to get better and at an age where improvement can still be projected.
#13-DANCIN IN DA’NILE: Woodbine distance veteran wintered in Florida and makes a pitstop in Kentucky before returning home. Will need a scratch to draw in off the also-eligible list. He’s won just 1 of his last 12 and didn’t offer much off the layoff in his seasonal return a year ago, needing a few races.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
No obvious answer here, but I’m solidly behind DESVIO and the confident return to Keeneland.
Best Longshot Contender:
ANEGADA at 15-1 morning line, is in excellent form, right within his form cycle and connections more than capable in these kind of races.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 Win DESVIO. $10 Exacta key-box DESVIO with ANEGADA and BURNHAM SQUARE ($40).
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