The Lead:
Following a $647.50 Santa Anita Handicap score in this space last week, let's head back to Gulfstream Park, where we've had some Race of the Week success in the past month or so. Saturday's 11-runner turf sprint, the Race 12 Captiva Island Stakes, has few obvious tosses and much balance. That should conspire for very attractive exotics.
Horseplayers be sure to take part in the $400 Florida Derby/Santa Anita Derby Challenge Qualifier tournament this Saturday at Xpressbet.com. Also note that Sunday's card to close the weekend will feature a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 wager.
Field Depth:
PANDORA'S GIFT is a stakes winner and Grade 2-placed and has kept the strongest strength of schedule overall. MOON SPUN, GREAT VENEZUELA, ME GOVERNOR and TWIRLING QUEEN are listed stakes winners. This is a race with a pretty familiar cast of players.
Pace:
MOON SPUN from the rail and TWIRLING QUEEN in post 9 project fastest in the group. TALIESIN could show speed if her dirt form translates to turf. The tempo will be hot with PANDORA'S GIFT and ME GOVERNOR likely in the early hunt. But at 5 furlongs on turf and without a discernable and reputable closer, it's still likely to be one near the engine.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-MOON SPUN: Rail blazer has won 4 in a row, including 2 stakes at the meet. She’s a pure turf sprinter and eliminates a lot of variables with her draw and style. Javier Castellano has won 32% in turf sprints at the current meet. Trainer Brain Lynch’s 8 stakes wins are most at the meet and his 10 turf sprint stakes wins the last 5 years at Gulfstream dwarf the competition (next-best 4).
#2-SUNNA: Jockey Joel Rosario won this race last year and is one of the game’s elite turf sprint jockeys, but this recent non-winners of 2 lifetime claiming winner takes a massive rise in class. Too much to ask, but perhaps in the pace hunt.
#3-KARAYA: Winless in 5 local turf starts, but she’s been all around the money. Best performances have been on synthetic, perhaps in part to the surface and the lesser quality y of competition gathered there. Hit the board at 7-1 and 4-1 in turf sprint stakes last winter and goes second off the layoff with a solid post.
#4-GREAT VENEZUELA: Well-traveled 5-year-old has won 7 of her last 12 while racing in Florida, New Jersey and California. She’s been a wrecking ball on the Gulfstream synthetic, but 1-for-5 with 4 minor awards on the turf here. Probably has to find a way through from mid-pack in this group and occasionally has run a BRIS late pace figure good enough to make them sweat late.
#5-TALIESIN: Dirt performer hasn’t tried turf in 13 starts and picks a difficult spot to see if she fits. She’s had 2 decent tries since moving to the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn, but didn’t see any major upgrade.
#6-LE AMAZONIA: Late-running second in the Ladies Turf Sprint at 13-1 odds, she’s almost assured the same kind of tactical blue print behind so much speed in this tougher race. She tapped out in the 85-89 BRIS late pace figure range in multiple turf sprints, which is why she’s been second twice as often (6 times) as she’s won (3). Bottom at best again.
#7-FLAMINGO WAY: Late rally has been a bit flat late in turf sprint stakes, but the effort has been there. Clearly improved since coming to Guadalupe Preciado last fall, but just not able to catch up to Moon Spun in 2 similar spots of late. Jockey Jose Morelos is winning 23% in turf sprints at the current GP meet with a positive ROI, so she’s in good hands.
#8-ME GOVERNOR: Kind of spun her wheels last out on synthetic and should appreciate the return to turf, where 3 of her 4 career wins have come. Layoff since November brings a fresh 4-year-old to the party and she’s working like she’s sharp. Trainer Carlos Davis is 4-for-7 with limited turf sprinters at the meeting and jockey Mario Gutierrez has been a money rider with 5 stakes wins from just 13 mounts at the Championship Meet.
#9-TWIRLING QUEEN: Speedster couldn’t get in front of Moon Spun in the Ladies Turf Sprint and that scenario saw her give way to a well-beaten fourth. Given the posts, she’s like chasing that one into and off the far turn as well. Luis Saez returns to Gulfstream after trying Oaklawn this winter and reunites with a former winning mount.
#10-COCO ABARRIO: Allowance winner takes on easily the toughest test of her career from a difficult post. Best trip may require her dropping back farther than usual and trying to make a rally.
#11-PANDORA’S GIFT (pictured): September layoff returnee makes her Gulfstream Park debut, but was highly competitive from Keeneland to Saratoga to the Presque Isle Masters on multiple footings. She was a pure turf sprinter in the UK and will be right in hunt off a series of 6 Payson Park workouts on the deep training track. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione’s 8 stakes wins at the current meet lead all riders.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
MOON SPUN is 9-for-9 in the trifecta lifetime, undefeated in 3 Gulfstream starts and the rail wins 11% in full-field turf sprints at Gulfstream, second-best to post 6 with 12%.
Best Longshot Contender:
FLAMINGO WAY and ME GOVERNOR are both 12-1 morning line and offer a ton of appeal as my exotics keys under the logical players.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$5 trifecta part-wheel MOON SPUN with FLAMINGO WAY, ME GOVERNOR with ALL ($90). $5 exacta part-wheel PANDORA'S GIFT with FLAMINGO WAY, ME GOVERNOR ($90).
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