The Lead:
Saratoga's summer sprint slate includes Saturday's Vanderbilt in advance of the Forego on the August 23 Travers Stakes undercard. The Grade 2 $400,000 Vanderbilt re-matches last year's 1-2 finishers over 6 furlongs and shares the day's marquee with the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. The Vanderbilt arguably is the better betting race of the pair and goes as Race 11, immediately following the CAA Oaks. Jockeys Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat each rode 2 of these last time out, but will be at Monmouth on Saturday for the Haskell, causing several rider switches.
Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the "Saratoga Sevens" promo this week. That's up to a $10 money-back special on win bets each day this week at the Spa on Race 7 if your horse runs second or third.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners here include MULLIKIN, BOOK 'EM DANNO and NAKATOMI. BABY YODA and DAMON'S MOUND have won Grade 2s. SKELLY is a Grade 3 winner who is Grade 1-placed. MULLIKIN and NAKATOMI have consistently kept the best strength of schedule in this deep cast.
Pace:
Five of the eight have made the early lead in at least 1 of their last 5 starts, but SKELLY is the only consistent early aggressor and should fire to the front from the rail. FULL MOOD MADNESS with speed jockey Kendrick Carmouche and in post 2 likely also gets asked early. This doesn't look like a race with a clear pace projection to alter the way you handicap it.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-SKELLY: Set this pace in this race last year before winding up second-best to Nakatomi and will try to employ the same tactics with an improved result. Cooked too fast last out in the Aristides at Churchill and turned in the worst performance of his career outside of the Breeders' Cup Sprint. That should inflate the price on a horse favored in everything of late outside the BC. Pressure next door from Full Moon Madness could make things difficult.
#2-FULL MOON MADNESS: May not be fast enough to scoot early with Skelly, but from this draw and the quality to his outside, aggressive gate pilot Kendrick Carmouche could be limited in his options. He's a cut below these in terms of class and doesn't get any edges in terms of trip.
#3-DAMON'S MOUND: Saratoga Special winner here in 2022 looked like a future sprint star, but the 5-year-old has made just 11 starts since, winning stakes at Charles Town, Parx and vs. fellow Florida-breds at Gulfstream. Missed all of 2024 and has returned with improved performance and numbers since coming to Bill Mott's barn. Junior Alvarado will have to work out a trip as he's likely to be buried inside while no better than midflight early.
#4-MULLIKIN: Reliable as they come in the national sprint ranks, he's danced the biggest domestic dances since last summer and fires his shot every time. Led late in a melee finish in the Churchill Downs Stakes, giving way slightly behind a field that includes return winners Mindframe (G1 Stephen Foster) and Nysos (G3 Triple Bend). He's not a 6-furlong specialist (4: 1-1-1) and would stand out more over 7F vs. these, but still may punch them out on his best.
#5-BOOK 'EM DANNO: Ran down Mullikin in Saratoga's Grade 3 True North on the Belmont Stakes Festival week over 6-1/2 furlongs and finished just ahead of that one in the Churchill Downs Stakes prior. Hard to argue his remarkable consistency and records over the track (3: 2-0-1) and distance (3: 3-0-0). Jockey Paco Lopez gives up an entire Haskell Day stakes bonanza at his Monmouth Park stomping grounds to keep this mount (and ride the $175K Caress Stakes), which feels like a rousing endorsement.
#6-NASH: 2023 fall maiden flash has never lived up to expectations, going 1-for-5 in stakes and winning only the listed Hot Springs at Oaklawn in '24. But trainer Brad Cox got a terrific 1:07-3/5 allowance win out of him at Churchill Downs last out and Nash could be poised for the rise. Cross-entered in a $150K stakes Sunday at Ellis Park, where a tough cast including Booth, Banishing and Durante also are signed up. Difficult read.
#7-BABY YODA: Wildly inconsistent sprinter has been elite in flashes and downright uncompetitive in others, represented locally as well with an 8: 4-0-1 mark at Saratoga. No threat fourth in this race last year and wasn't able to run with Nakatomi, Skelly and Mullikin over this race a summer ago. Never know what you'll get with this Bill Mott trainee who comes off a flashy allowance win downstate in his only start this season. Best races are when he shows early speed and he's not likely to outfoot Skelly in the early action.
#8-NAKATOMI: Defending Vanderbillt champion got over his bridesmaid ways here last summer, yet still, his 13: 2-4-5 record over 6 furlongs reminds you of his more frequent outcomes. Six-year-old has lost all 4 starts since the '24 Vandy and never got involved as the favorite locally June 7 in the True North as the favorite after causing his own issue at the start. That's obviously a concern after a sharp effort in Dubai and if the veteran has bounced back out of that second Middle East road trip in 2 years.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
BOOK 'EM DANNO is 13-for-14 in the superfecta and has a sharp record over the track and distance.
Best Longshot Contender:
No huge prices projected, but if NASH were to stay in this race, he could be a candidate for minor awards at a square number.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 win BOOK 'EM DANNO. $50 daily double starting in the Race 10 CCA Oaks, LA CARA to BOOK 'EM DANNO.
.svg){kind=logo}
