The Lead:
Saratoga's 2024 summer hits the homestretch this weekend with closing-day Monday, but not before Breeders' Cup Classic division rivals clash in Sunday's Jockey Club Gold Cup. The longtime Belmont Park fall fixture has made its home at the Spa since 2021. At a mile and one-quarter, it stretches Grade 1 Whitney alumni an additional 220 yards from Saratoga's other premier race in the division.
Horsesplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take part Saturday in a Bet $100, Get $25 promotion. Bet $100 or more at both Saratoga and Del Mar this Saturday (on Pacific Classic Day, no less) in order to collect the $25 wagering credit.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners here include ARTHUR'S RIDE, TAPIT TRICE and defending champion BRIGHT FUTURE. Graded stakes winners DISARM, PYRENEES and HIGHLAND FALLS have been competitive at the highest levels. This field is very evenly matched in terms of class.
Pace:
ARTHUR'S RIDE dominated the Whitney on the front end and potentially could be lone speed over this longer trip. BRIGHT FUTURE hasn't had any speed this year, but his best races are tracking the lead and adds blinkers. DISARM and PYRENEES have the ability to sit fairly close in the right scenarios. Give an edge to those near the front in the JCGC.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-TAPIT TRICE: Superb return from 11 months on the sidelines to win the Monmouth Cup. Last year's Travers third-place finisher should handle the track and has had an aggressive 4 workouts since that race 43 days ago, indicating there's no bounce pending. Picks up 8 pounds and doesn't get a favorable pace set-up, but I'm counting on him to deliver what he has in the tank for a Todd Pletcher barn that has won this race twice in the last 4 years.
#2-KUCHAR: Longshot entrant was beaten 10 lengths in the Monmouth Cup by return rival Tapit Trice and now faces an even tougher and deeper cast. Off the board in all 3 Saratoga starts, there's not much to embrace or to forecast a massive rebound.
#3-BRIGHT FUTURE: Seeks back-to-back Jockey Club Gold Cup victories, but a 22-length defeat in the Whitney behind several of these paints a less promising picture. Blinkers go on this 5-year-old for the first time, who has made but 10 starts lifetime (winning 5). Expect Javier Castellano to keep him in the early mix as best he can if the horse has any interest in running Sunday vs. the Whitney no-show. Preference here of the Pletcher trainees goes to Tapit Trice.
#4-DISARM: Gun Runner 4-year-old just hasn't lived up to the promise yet, teasing a year ago that he'd be among the very best of the Classic division in 2024. That hasn't materialized after a modest allowance win was followed by out-of-the-money tries in the Grade 1 Foster and Grade 1 Whitney. He'll pick up 8 pounds and be tasked with making up nearly 7 lengths on Arthur's Ride from their last local head-to-head. You'll know a half-mile in if he's coming to work; if he's not up into the pace, he's unlikely to fire his best.
#5-PYRENEES: Hot hand saw a 4-race winning streak snapped when a solid second in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster last time at Churchill. Third-place finisher Skippylongstocking recently won the Charles Town Classic in repeat fashion, while Foster winner Kingsbarns has been retired. While he's never run 10F, he was only 110 yards shy in the Pimlico Special while finishing well. He stacks up with most in here and capable of a share.
#6-HIGHLAND FALLS: Well-traveled Brad Cox trainee has contested the Santa Anita Handicap, Oaklawn Handicap, Blame and Monmouth Cup literally from sea to sea with Arkansas and Kentucky in-between in his last 4. He's shown up in all 4, even if only 1 victory to boast for it. Rider change to Flavien Prat can't be underestimated as he's been an absolute stakes phenom this summer at the Spa. Pedigree screams 10F.
#7-ARTHUR'S RIDE: Cruised to victory in 4 of his last 5, all in front-end fashion, and clearly the one to catch in search of a Whitney-JCGC sweep at the meet. Win here could make him favored for the Breeders' Cup Classic and certainly in the driver's seat for an Eclipse Award in the older dirt male division. Pace-wise there should be no excuses. He's won locally in allowance company over 10F in a razor-sharp 2:00-4/5, and it's hard to see any of these running anywhere close to that fast. He'll have to regress to lose this, even if picking up 8 pounds.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ARTHUR'S RIDE is 6-7 in the exacta lifetime and has a win over the track and distance, plus gets a pace edge.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
PYRENEES has been 5-1 and 10-1 in his last pair and figures to be no better than fourth choice here among 7.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
The ARTHUR'S RIDE-TAPIT TRICE exacta will be short and the most likely combination, but there could be value in splitting them with a pair of respected chances. $50 exacta part-wheel ARTHUR'S RIDE over PYRENEES and HIGHLAND FALLS.
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