The Lead:
Santa Anita features a pair of stakes races on its Saturday card, including the Triple Bend for dirt sprinters and the Honeymoon for 3-year-old turf fillies. The latter will be our focus, and this 1-1/8 miles test goes as Race 7 on the card. It's a 2-3-4 rematch from April's Providencia Stakes, where unbeaten Medoro has been sidelined since and will be passing the baton.
Field Depth:
VISUALLY is the field's lone graded stakes winner, achieving Grade 3 status, while CIRCLE OF TRUST and SHILOH'S MISTREE are Grade 3-placed. SAKURA BLOSSOM is a listed stakes winner. The class edge may slightly go to SHILOH'S MISTRESS, but there's not a major difference.
Pace:
No committed front-runners are in the field, but VISUALLY and SHILOH'S MISTRESS project as possible leaders, while PINK WHITNEY, FAITH UNDERSTOOD and SAKURA BLOSSOM could be close up.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-PINK WHITNEY: 1-for-12 lifetime with a lot of head-to-head defeats against Honeymoon rivals makes her a tough take on top. Couldn't kick with some of these late in the Providencia and prefer others.
#2-SAKURA BLOSSOM: Former maiden claimer won the Arizona Oaks vs. lesser at Turf Paradise on dirt and notably is 0-for-2 on grass lifetime. Makes her first start on the Santa Anita lawn.
#3-FAITH UNDERSTOOD: Cross-entered in Saturday's $275,000 Regret at Churchill Downs, where she's 15-1 in the morning line. Fits better here, but it's a long way to ship for less money. Workmanlike allowance winner at Keeneland had the cavalry coming to get her that day.
#4-SEA DANCER: Trainer Tim Yakteen is coming off a big Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile winner on grass last with via Johannes and counters with Sea Dancer this Saturday. Filly has missed the money twice in her stakes attempts, but exits a career-best effort in allowance company. Has won over 9F locally and 4: 2-1-0 SA turf record is noteworthy.
#5-CIRCLE OF TRUST: Jockey Antonio Fresu (pictured above) led Medoro to victory in the Providencia, and this time picks up the call on that race's rallying third-place finisher. Phil D'Amato trainee got no pace help last time and galloped out clearly best. She's a true, 9F influence and it's baffling to see trouble lines in all 6 of her career starts.
#6-VISUALLY: Rallying winner May 5 of the Grade 3 Senorita sprinting down the hill, she'll change games to a 2-turn route at 2-1/2 furlongs farther in distance. She's yet to go beyond a mile, and her only 2-turn win came wire-to-wire, so it's curious what style Edwin Maldonado will apply. I expect he'll send the filly to the front. Long forgotten will be the 17-1 price last time in victory.
#7-SHILOH'S MISRESS: Providencia runner-up has absolutely everything her way last time and simply came up a nose short in a tenacious stretch drive with 4-for-4 Medoro. Pure, 1-1/8 miles or more pedigree and now experienced over the trip. She'll be in the fold throughout, but may get slightly more pace pressure Saturday.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CIRCLE OF TRUST has 3 straight superfecta finishes over the 9F Santa Anita turf trip and will be running late with a head of steam. Love her chances.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SEA DANCER was 6-1 in the allowance win last time and 50-1 when last seen in a stakes, so could be an overlay on the tote. She's in ripe form and has 3 straight exacta finishes in 2-turn turf routes.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win CIRCLE OF TRUST.
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