The Lead:
America's premier Distaff division race the first half of the year, Oaklawn's $1.25 million Apple Blossom has attracted stars from both coasts and points in-between. It's Race 11 on a card that includes the Count Fleet for elite sprinters. We'll look to build on our $973 score in this space 2 weeks ago after last week's plays scratched out of the Monrovia.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners ADARE MANOR and WET PAINT have played at the top of the division and are Breeders' Cup Distaff alumnae. TAXED is a Grade 2 winner, while Grade 3 winners here include HONOR D LADY, SHOTGUN HOTTIE and BELLAMORE, the latter also Grade 1-placed. ADARE MANOR, WET PAINT and BELLAMORE have held the strongest company lines and hold the class edge.
Pace:
Rail-drawn FREE LIKE A GIRL should show early pace along with FLYING CONNECTION. Expect ADARE MANOR, SHOTGUN HOTTIE and BELLAMORE up in the mix. The pace figures to be above-average.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-FREE LIKE A GIRL: Duked it out in Houston with Bellamore, so this consistent Louisiana-bred has proven herself in open company. Favored in 10 of her last 11 starts, this will be the time to get value on her against the heavyweights if you like her.
#2-TAXED: Black-Eyed Susan winner hits a beautiful second-off-the-layoff form cycle with a cozy allowance sprint win the perfect prep for this. Runner-up at OP in last year's Martha Washington and Fantasy while dropping 4 decisions to Wet Paint on the season, she's working like she means business under top local pilot Cristian Torres.
#3-WET PAINT: Star sophomore of the '23 Oaklawn season, sweeping the Martha Washington, Honeybee and Fantasy (pictured above), she proved more than a horse-for-course when continuing her success at Saratoga on the Grade 1 stages. Tough spot for her first race since the Breeders' Cup Distaff, and it's impossible to know how she runs fresh based on her form. Debut was on turf, so poor effort may be explained, and didn't have a significant break during her only full campaign.
#4-ADARE MANOR: Clearly the top mare in California on dirt, we'll see how her road game translates. Disappointed in the '22 Black-Eyed Susan and Cotillion when well-backed in both, but those were during the Bob Baffert suspension and running for substitute trainers. This 1-1/16 miles trip is her best distance and got a sharpener in the Beholder Mile last out. Baffert and Juan Hernandez raided Oaklawn a few weeks back to win the Arkansas Derby with Muth.
#5-MISTY VEIL: Iron mare of the Oaklawn season makes her fifth straight stakes start in the division. Top-3 efforts in the Mistletoe, Pippin, Bayakoa and Azeri, the last 3 of which were at the Apple Blossom distance. Competition toughens but she's outrun her odds (20-1 and 16-1) in her last 2.
#6-HONOR D LADY: Winner on Tapeta, turf and dirt, this Florida-based filly has proven capable of victory away from home. She's run well traveling to Woodbine, won the Remington Park Oaks and was third in Aqueduct's Comely. Positive prep for this in the Royal Delta on her home track at Gulfstream. Can contend.
#7-BELLAMORE: Last year's Spinster third-place finisher has changed barns this winter to Steve Asmussen and has improved her game in 2 starts. Always in the fight, she's had some trouble closing the deal for the win, victorious in just 1 of her last 13. There are enough good options in this race that you must demand a very healthy price to consider in the win spot.
#8-SHOTGUN HOTTIE: Lost starch late in the Bayakoa and Azeri and this field only gets tougher. Jockey Cristian Torres winds up on Taxed, but this mare is reunited with her multiple Monmouth stakes-winning pilot Paco Lopez. Expect her to be sent hard from the outside under an aggressive rider.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
TAXED is locked in for a monster effort. I'm all in on her Saturday.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
MISTY VEIL has been consistent over this trip all stakes season long at Oaklawn and delivered positive efforts despite being overlooked on the tote in the last couple.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win TAXED.
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