The Lead:
Saturday's Louisiana Derby Day card at Fair Grounds abounds with importance. Last year's Champion 3-Year-Old Colt Sierra Leone returns in the New Orleans Classic, while this year's crop of sophomores looks to take all-important steps toward the Kentucky Oaks and Derby. In the midst of it all, the $300,000 Muniz Memorial is a turf tilt that could make or break the late-day betting strategies in Race 10.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (pictured) owns the big trophy amongst this cast, while GIGANTE is a Grade 2 winner and BRILLIANT BERTIE owns a Grade 3 score. Others have nibbled the edges in the graded stakes, but must step up their game.
Pace:
With potential speed in posts 11 (IDRATHERBEBLESSED) and 12 (HIGGINS BOAT), the race might tick off a little faster than expected as those runners try to clear the field into the clubhouse turn. JOHNY'S FIREBALL in post 2 can be sent along, as could SMOKEY MANDATE (post 9). The pace looks average to slightly quick potentially because of the posts, but certainly not pedestrian.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-GIGANTE: $1.1 million earner has won 40% of his 20 career races and was runner-up at 17-1 in this race last year. He comes off an inexplicable dull effort in the Fair Grounds Stakes after a pair of winter stakes wins at the meet. March 9 workout one of his best on the clock, so perhaps not over the top yet. Mixed vibe. Joel Rosario takes the mount, having won this race in 2023 aboard Spooky Channel.
#2-JOHNY'S FIREBALL: 0-6 in stakes lifetime and 13th and last in this race in 2024, look for Florent Geroux to put this Norm Casse trainee near the front with his favorable draw and see how long he can sustain. Did win at 9 furlongs on turf at Churchill in a November allowance vs. weaker.
#3-WHAT SAY THEE: Solid third in the local prep, the Fair Grounds Stakes when coming off a 3-month freshening. Jockey Luis Saez has been a great fit for him (6: 4-0-1 since the start of 2024 when paired). Proven commodity over 1-1/8 miles on grass and has been rock-solid since Mike Maker claimed for $35,000 in December 2023.
#4-CAMEO PERFORMANCE: 4-year-old debut will mark first stakes try against elders as this Oscar Performance colt returns from an August respite. Trainer Brendan Walsh doesn't get Irad Ortiz Jr. often, but they're 6-15 (40%) together over the past year-plus and note Ortiz has won the Muniz 3 of the last 6 years. Colt did win his 3-year-old season debut fresh off the bench and had a bullet workout March 9 at Palm Meadows in Florida before hitting the road.
#5-REDISTRICTING: First of 2 Chad Brown trainees as that barn seeks a fourth Muniz Memorial victory and second straight. After missing 11 months, this Kingman gelding returned last fall for a couple of narrow defeats as the favorite in stakes at Aqueduct and Del Mar. Gets Lasix back Saturday and note he's 2-for-2 on the medication.
#6-SPIRT OF ST LOUIS: Second Chad Brown charge in the lineup as that barn takes the Pegasus World Cup Turf-to-Muniz path for a second straight year. It worked well in victory last year when I'm Very Busy scored here after a PWC Turf runner-up. This 6-year-old exits a victory in that Gulfstream grass showcase and it's impossible to argue with the New York-bred's 14: 10-3-0 career ledger. Not favored in 3 prior open company starts, but that's about to change. The one to beat.
#7-REBEL RED: The 46% win rate at Fair Grounds between trainer Cherie DeVaux and leading jockey Jose Ortiz is the first point that jumps off the past performances. LIghtly raced Frankel 5-year-old has won his last 3 when able to use Lasix and gets the medication back Saturday. Off since a second in November's Red Smith at Aqueduct, note he didn't fire strongly off the bench to start 2024.
#8-BRILLIANT BERTIE: Cherie DeVaux's second chance in the Muniz, this colt has won 5 of his last 6 with a second-place effort in the lone defeat. That streak came against restricted 3-year-olds last year, so the Noble Mission colt must prove himself against elder stakes rivals for the first time. Lone poor effort lifetime was his debut fifth, the only other time he's raced at Fair Grounds.
#9-SMOKEY MANDATE: Farthest try for this second Mike Maker trainee in the Muniz field. He could be part of the pace while trying to snap an 0-5 stakes skid lifetime. Wide draws in his last 2 turf bids didn't help, but he's toward the outside again under hustling rider Jareth Loveberry.
#10-DANCIN IN DA'NILE: First start since December for Woodbine gelding who has wintered in Florida. Hasn't been successful ascending into the stakes ranks previously and this field will be the toughest perhaps he's faced to date.
#11-IDRATHERBEBLESSED: Last 4 starts have seen him defeated by no less than 4 of the runners in this race, so the wide draw does him no favors in trying to reverse all of that. While he has won over 1-1/4 miles on turf at Ellis, he's been hard-pressed to see out 1-1/8 miles against better competition.
#12-HIGGINS BOAT: Drawn the widest post for the second straight race, battling on the front end before finishing a game second in the Fair Grounds Stakes when most recently saddled with that barrier. Even farther out in post 12 with speed directly to his inside, making his bid to snap an 0-3 stakes mark tougher. He has twice run second over 9F in stakes company from 2 such efforts, so his gameness in genuine.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS is 13-for-14 in the exacta lifetime and has had a perfect workout tab since the Pegasus World Cup Turf to expect his form to hold.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
WHAT SAY THEE is proven over the course, distance and fits like a glove with Saez at 10-1 morning line odds.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$8 trifecta part-wheel SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS with WHAT SAY THEE, CAMEO PERFORMANCE with WHAT SAY THEE, CAMEO PERFORMANCE, REDISTRICTING, REBEL RED, BRILLIANT BERTIE, HIGGGINS BOAT, GIGANTE ($96). $2 exacta box WHAT SAY THEE, CAMEO PERFORMANCE ($4).
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